The Miami Dolphins missed the playoffs for the first time under head coach Mike McDaniel last season. This year, they’ll look to bounce back with a healthy quarterback and the league’s 12th-easiest schedule.
Regular-season win total: 8.5 (BetMGM)
Outlook: It’s now or never for the Miami Dolphins. Following the 2024 season, team owner Stephen Ross took to social media to say McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier would be back in 2025, but also noted that “continuity in leadership is not to be confused with an acceptance that status quo is good enough.”
Of course, the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will ultimately determine how far McDaniel’s team will go. Per StatMuse, the Dolphins are 40-24 in games with their starting QB and 7-13 without him.
With a healthy Tagovailoa, the Dolphins scored 29.2 points per game and led the league with 401.3 yards per contest in 2023. With the quarterback missing six games in 2024, Miami averaged 325.9 yards and just 20.3 yards per game.
Defensively, Miami quietly fielded the league’s fourth-best unit last season, allowing just 314.3 yards per game. Picking up 6-foot-3, 339-pound nose tackle Kenneth Grant in the first round of this year’s draft should make them even better, although losing free safety Jevon Holland to the New York Giants and the potential loss of cornerback Jalen Ramsey could hold the team back.
Ramsey, a seven-time Pro Bowler, has been on the block for weeks after signing a three-year, $72.3 million extension in September. He’s still owed $24M in guarantees, which could be a problem for cap-conscious teams.
With or without Ramsey, the Dolphins have an excellent chance to start and finish strong, thanks to their favorable scheduling. Aside from a road matchup with the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and a home game with the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, the rest of Miami’s first eight games come against teams that did not make the playoffs in 2024.
After a Week 12 bye, four of the team’s last seven games come against playoff teams, although the Cincinnati Bengals barely missed the postseason with a 9-8 record in 2024.
Our take: With five primetime games plus an international matchup against the New York Jets in Madrid, the NFL believes in the Dolphins. Assuming Tagovailoa misses no more than a game or two and Grant lives up to his draft status as the 13th-overall pick, there’s no reason to think Miami won’t rebound in 2025.
Predicted win total: 10
