For the sixth time, the NBA league office has given me an official ballot for year-end awards. Here’s how I decided to use it.
One quick note: I’m writing this before voters receive our ballots; as such, I might need to make a change or two when I submit my ballot. (Like, for example, if someone I’ve listed here winds up being ruled ineligible based on the league’s 65-game threshold for awards consideration; I think I’m clear on these, but I might have missed a “not enough games of 20-or-more-minutes” here or there.)
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For the most part, though, here’s what my picks for the 2024-25 NBA regular season will look like:
Most Valuable Player
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
5. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
I took a look at the arguments for both SGA and Jokić last month. My colleague Ben Rohrbach broke them down a couple of weeks ago. Both cases are so excellent as to be nearly unassailable; both players would be worthy winners.
The advanced statistics don’t scream one way or the other. Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić sit first and second in just about every alphabet-soup impact number that NBA nerds have concocted, with SGA having the edge in a bunch (estimated plus-minus and EPM wins, The BBall Index’s LEBRON and LEBRON wins above replacement, win shares and win shares per 48 minutes, the estimated version of FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR wins above replacement) and Jokić taking a number of others (value over replacement player, player efficiency rating, box plus-minus, estimated RAPTOR, Kostya Medvedovsky’s DARKO daily plus-minus, ESPN’s Net Points Per 100 Possessions and Net Points WAR, Jeremias Engelmann’s xRAPM, Mike Beuoy’s win probability added). Your mileage may vary as to how much any or all of that means; if nothing else, it points toward these two players, in this particular season, separating themselves in a tier above the rest of the pack.
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There is no tearing down Jokić’s candidacy. He’s the third player ever to average a triple-double for a full season and the first player ever to finish top-three in points, rebounds and assists per game, and he did it on ludicrous efficiency: 63% on 2-pointers, 42% on 3-pointers and 80% from the foul line, good for a bonkers .663 true shooting percentage. If it’s not the greatest individual statistical season we’ve ever seen, it’s pretty damn close.
Jokić produced at that volume and that efficiency despite shouldering the biggest workload of his career — leading the league in total touches and front-court touches per game, taking more shots per game than ever, sitting just beneath his career high-water marks in usage rate and time of possession — because this iteration of the Nuggets, the one that fired its head coach about five minutes before the playoffs in search of “a way to potentially squeeze as much juice out of the rest of the season as possible,” couldn’t live without it. Denver outscored opponents by 594 points with Jokić on the court this season, and got outscored by 275 points with him off of it. That’s a pretty good definition of “valuable.”
It’s not the only one, though.
(Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
Maybe the Thunder could survive without Gilgeous-Alexander; they were plus-137 in nearly 1,350 minutes with him off the court, riding their smothering defense to outscore opponents by 8.3 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions with SGA on the pine. Oklahoma City has thrived, though — to the tune of just the seventh 68-win season in NBA history and the largest margin of victory the league’s ever seen — with Gilgeous-Alexander not just leading the way, but propelling the franchise forward. (And, it bears mentioning, to a perch 18 games ahead of Jokić’s Nuggets.)
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Yes, Sam Presti deserves credit for the high-performance race car he’s built in Bricktown. He built it, though, because he knew he had the driver (literally) who could deftly steer it through the cramped confines of the West all the way to the top of the conference, who could get every ounce of speed and muscle out of it — who could push it not just to its limits, but to the rarefied air reserved for historically elite squads.
Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in scoring for the league’s No. 2 offense — Denver finished fourth — and very clearly propelled OKC to that ranking: For all the talent and perfect-fit complementary pieces around him, Oklahoma City scored like the league’s No. 19 offense with him off the court. Detractors carp about foul-baiting when they don’t have anything else to criticize; strip out their free throws, and SGA still has a 100-plus-point edge on Jokić, Anthony Edwards and the rest of the NBA’s top 10 in total points scored.
He’s also an active, consistently positive contributor to a defense that not only led the NBA in points allowed per possession by a mile, but that stands as one of the best units of the last 30-plus years.
SGA rarely has to take on the opponent’s toughest defensive assignment — a benefit of playing next to two of Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace pretty much all game. But at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, fantastic hands and an instinctive feel for disruption, he’s no easy mark; he generates 5.5 steals, blocks and deflections per game as part of a Thunder defense that creates turnovers at the league’s highest rate. Jokić — with all due respect to the value of kicked-ball violations — has been a glaring minus as a rim protector (opponents shoot 70% at the cup when he’s contesting) this season for a Denver defense that ranks 21st in points allowed per possession, and has defended like the Nets with the big fella on the floor.
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The only other player to score as much as Gilgeous-Alexander has this season on a per-possession basis and at this level of efficiency? Joel Embiid, two seasons ago — when he edged out Jokić for MVP. The only other player to average 30-5-5 while scoring this efficiently and blocking shots and snagging steals like SGA? Some guy named Michael Jordan. Decent company.
The Nuggets outscored opponents by 11.5 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions with Jokić on the floor; the Thunder blitzed the opposition by 16 points-per-100 in Gilgeous-Alexander’s minutes. Jokić made an otherwise meh team very good; Gilgeous-Alexander made a good team all-time great. That, too, is a pretty good definition of “valuable” — and, to me, a persuasive one. Oklahoma City’s arrival as a fully formed world-breaker was the story of this NBA season, in my view, and Gilgeous-Alexander was its defining player. He tops my ballot. Jokić takes second.
Third goes to Antetokounmpo, whose brilliant season and unfortunate predicament I covered after the All-Star break. A third straight season of averaging at least 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists per game — something that only Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson have ever done more than once. A second straight season of 30-10-5 on 60% shooting from the field — something that nobody else has ever done, period — while toting a higher usage rate than anybody but LaMelo Ball (naturally). Just absolute monster stuff.
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Antetokounmpo’s midrange game took off this season, making him “even more unguardable,” which is saying something. His assist rate climbed while his turnover rate dropped; he effectively took over as the Bucks’ primary facilitator after Damian Lillard’s frightening blood clot episode, averaging 8.6 dimes per game the rest of the way, with triple-doubles in four of his last five appearances to lift the Bucks to fifth in the East. A Milwaukee team light on quality defenders got stops at a near-top-10 clip during the minutes it had Giannis on the floor.
In plenty of other years, Antetokounmpo’s résumé would land him at the top of the ballot. In this one, though, he trails both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić in virtually every advanced statistical category, has played about 280 fewer minutes than Jokić and 310 fewer than SGA, and has done so for a team with a worse record and net rating than the Thunder and Nuggets. He takes third.
Fourth goes to Tatum, about whom the worst thing you can say at this point is, “I don’t think he’s one of the three best players in the NBA.” He might be the most well-rounded player in the league, though — which, when you play as many minutes and as many games as he does, is incredibly valuable.
Tatum, who averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and a career-best 6.0 assists in 36.4 minutes per game on 45/34/81 shooting splits this season, allows Joe Mazzulla to answer pretty much any question asked of the Celtics. Need him to guard out-of-position so you can switch pick-and-rolls? No problem: He’ll body up the 5, slide with the ball-handler and concede nothing. Need him to attack the glass to minimize the danger of being a switch-heavy defense that will sometimes wind up with its bigs on the perimeter? No problem: Tatum will just go ahead and post the highest defensive rebounding rate of his career.
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Need him to be the engine of your drive-and-kick, pace-and-space, bombs-away offense? No problem: Tatum will bulldoze to the rim 10-plus times per game, shoot 56% on those forays into the paint, and dish assists on a higher share of his drives than ever before. Need him to just pick out a preferred matchup and cook solo? No problem: A career-high 61% of Tatum’s buckets were unassisted this season, he was eighth in the NBA in pull-up jumpers, and he ranked in the 80th percentile in points scored per possession finished in isolation.
The Celtics have become a do-everything team in part because they’re built around Tatum — a player who can, and does, do everything at an extremely high level. He gets the fourth spot.
I thought about a handful of players for the fifth and final slot: Stephen Curry, whose remarkable post-Jimmy-trade heater served as proof positive that he’s still among the three or four most destructive offensive forces in the world; Tyrese Haliburton, whose midseason return to full health as a pull-up shooter and maestro has had the Pacers looking like a real threat to make another deep playoff run; Cade Cunningham, whose ascent to All-Star status as one of the game’s best scorers and playmakers helped completely transform the Pistons from a cellar-dweller into a bona fide playoff squad.
Ultimately, though, I felt best landing on Mitchell to represent the other best team in the NBA this season.
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While Mitchell’s per-game numbers are all down this season, his per-minute and per-possession production stayed in line with last season’s marks. (Which is to say: fantastic.) His willingness to take a step back — to curb his usage rate, time of possession and shot attempts — helped create the space for teammates like Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Ty Jerome and others to step forward into larger on-ball roles, helping vault the Cavs from last year’s 18th-ranked offense to not just the top of the league, but to one of the most efficient and overwhelming attacks in decades.
I’m not sure all superstars of Mitchell’s caliber and résumé would’ve been as comfortable taking that step and ceding that spotlight, as eager to adapt to a reimagined role that featured more off-ball activity and a higher premium on his defensive work, or as excellent at pulling that off. The move, and his acceptance of it, paid off handsomely, helping create the best team Cleveland’s seen since LeBron James — and, by some metrics, the best Cavs team ever. I felt that merited recognition, and gave Mitchell the last spot.
Just missing the cut: Curry, Haliburton, Cunningham, Mobley, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
2. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
3. Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder
When I think about the 2024-25 NBA season, and I think about defense, I think about the Thunder. No team created turnovers, generated deflections, protected the rim, limited fast-break points, recovered loose balls, drew charges or held opponents to a lower field goal percentage than the Thunder, who led the NBA in defensive efficiency by a mile; the 2.5 points-per-100 gap between Oklahoma City and second-place Orlando was nearly as large as the gap between the Magic and eighth-place Cleveland.
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The problem there, though, is that OKC’s dominance is the sort of group project for which it’s difficult to apportion individual credit.
Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein rank first, second and fourth on Oklahoma City (and first, seventh and 14th in the entire NBA) in defensive estimated plus-minus; none of them, however, met the 65-game threshold for eligibility for awards consideration. Luguentz Dort has, which is one reason the Thunder have touted him as their candidate; the fact that he faces the third-toughest average matchup of any defender in the NBA, according to The BBall Index’s charting, and holds those brutal assignments 4.4% below their expected field goal percentage — a top-10 mark among qualifying players to defend at least 250 shots this season — is a big part of it, too.
That the Thunder gave up 2.4 fewer points-per-100 with Dort off the court than with him on it gave me some pause, though Dort consistently matching minutes with opponents’ top options rather than locking up with lesser lights likely has something to do with it (as does the fact that when OKC goes to the bench, they call in Caruso and Cason Wallace from the kennel of Dobermans). I considered Jalen Williams here, too, in recognition of his evolution into one of the league’s most versatile defenders, spending time this season both on the back line as a 6-foot-6 (or maybe 6-foot-4?) super-small-ball center and as a primary point of attack defender against perimeter scorers of all sizes. J-Dub has been elite in isolation and a plus rim protector, and while the “OKC has been even stingier with him off the floor than on it” trend holds for him, too, it’s by a smaller margin than for Dort.
I’m not positive that Dort’s one of the three best defenders in the NBA, or that he’s even definitively the best defender on his own team. But the Thunder defense was the class of the NBA to such a dramatic degree that I wouldn’t feel right leaving them off the medal stand here, and Dort’s indefatigable work as a heavy-handed mauling menace at the point of attack feels as central to Oklahoma City’s defensive identity as any aspect of any other individual contributor eligible for the award. He makes the cut.
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I went back and forth between Green and Evan Mobley before ultimately going with Draymond — not because of his late-season media tour, but because I think that, all told, he was a bigger part of a better defense. (Golden State finished ahead of Cleveland in points allowed per possession; the Warriors were stingier with Green on the court than the Cavs were in Mobley’s minutes.)
Mobley’s an incredibly versatile modern big, adept at both guarding on the perimeter and tracking back to protect the paint, as well as a tremendous help defender liable to blow up your possession from the weak side if you don’t ensure he’s drawn into the action. Draymond, though, is essentially the model of a versatile modern big — the father of that style, and still as elite as it gets at fulfilling its responsibilities. Green allowed fewer points per possession than Mobley against pick-and-roll ball-handlers, in isolation, and on off-ball screens and dribble handoffs — all while holding opponents to the same defensive field goal percentage within 6 feet of the basket, finishing ahead of Mobley in both total defensive stops and defensive stops per game, and doing it all as a 6-foot-6 undersized 4 who plays full-time 5 (without the benefit of a Jarrett Allen to help him protect the rim) to unlock the best version of his team. He gets the nod.
Back to the beginning: When I think back on this season, and I think about individual defense, I think about … well, Victor Wembanyama. But he’s not eligible here, and the non-Wemby defensive player I’ll think about most when I think about this particular season — the defensive player of this year, to me — is Daniels, who burst into view as a historic disruptor in the opening weeks and maintained that pace throughout the entire season to an extent that marked him as a massive enough outlier to justify choosing a DPOY from a defense that finished below league-average in points allowed per possession.
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Daniels is one of just 15 players in ABA/NBA history to top 225 steals in a season, and the first player to average three steals per game in 31 years. He finished the season with 443 deflections; in the nine years for which the NBA has tracked deflections, only three players — John Wall in 2016-17, and Robert Covington and Paul George in 2017-18 — had ever collected 300.
He didn’t just lead the league in those categories; he completely lapped the field. The gap in total steals between Daniels and second-place Gilgeous-Alexander was the same as the gap between SGA and Kelly Olynyk, who tied for 265th. The gap in deflections between Daniels and second-place Keon Ellis was about the same as the gap between Ellis and Gabe Vincent, who tied for 159th.
The Aussie also led the league in total defensive stops, a metric devised by my podcast partner Tom Haberstroh that includes not only steals, but blocked shots recovered by the defense, offensive fouls drawn and charges taken. Only ascendant Blazers perimeter ace Toumani Camara came within 85 stops of Daniels; among players who logged at least 1,500 minutes, only Wembanyama generated more stops per 100 possessions than Daniels.
Daniels held opponents to just 0.68 points per possession in isolation on 36.2% shooting, the NBA’s fourth-best mark among players to defend at least 25 isos, according to Synergy. He did it while handling as tough a slate of opponents as anyone — Daniels finished fourth in average matchup difficulty, right behind Dort — and while actually curbing his foul rate, despite a dramatic uptick in both minutes and responsibility.
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He also did it not only without the benefit of an All-Defensive Team flanking him, but while swinging the equivalent of a weighted bat: Daniels played nearly 1,900 minutes, more than 72% of his total for the season, alongside Trae Young, who — recent-years improvements in effort and activity on that end notwithstanding — has been one of the most damaging defensive players in the league since he entered it. When Young played without Daniels this season, the Hawks again got stops at a league-worst rate. But with Daniels there to take on the toughest assignments, switch Young out of dangerous matchups and loom as an ever-present threat to spring a random double or knife into a passing lane, Atlanta allowed 114.7 points-per-100 — just below league-average.
And to top it all off, Daniels did it in some massive moments, with critical crunch-time takeaways against De’Aaron Fox, Cade Cunningham, LeBron James and Desmond Bane that directly contributed to four Atlanta wins. His incredible close-and-late defense legitimately might have been the difference between the Hawks making the play-in tournament and missing the postseason entirely — a dramatic swing that helps underscore why he’s the defensive player I’ll remember most from this season.
Just missing the cut: Mobley, Williams, Ivica Zubac, Amen Thompson, Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo, Jaren Jackson Jr., Allen, Camara, Giannis.
Rookie of the Year
1. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
2. Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies
3. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
In our midseason awards check-in, I had Wells in the top spot, in recognition of how well he’d performed in a starting role — albeit a circumscribed one on the offensive end — on a playoff team.
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No, Wells didn’t have to shoulder nearly as much of an offensive burden for the Grizzlies as classmates like Castle, Risacher, Alex Sarr or Jazz point guard Isaiah Collier. But Wells did walk from the second round of the draft directly into a mammoth defensive responsibility, consistently checking the toughest perimeter scorer the opponent had to offer.
Wells ranked in the 99th percentile in average matchup difficulty this season, according to The BBall Index — tops among rookies, and fifth among all players to log at least 1,000 minutes. He was one of just seven players in the entire league to rank in the 98th percentile or higher in both matchup difficulty and perimeter isolation defense — a two-fer that put him in the company of ace stoppers like Dort, Daniels, Camara, Andrew Nembhard …
…. and Castle.
Like Wells, Castle consistently guarded elite perimeter weapons night after night. Unlike Wells, Castle did so while also serving as one of his team’s top offensive options — a tertiary ball-handler and scorer through the first few months of the season, and later the main threat, with injuries taking Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox off the board. After the All-Star break, Castle averaged 22.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists per 36 minutes of floor time — per-minute production that only LeBron James, Luka Dončić and LaMelo Ball had ever managed over a full season before turning 21.
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There are a couple of glaring caveats. For one, Castle did it while shooting just 43.9% from the field, 27.9% from 3-point range and 71.3% from the free throw line, in keeping with a season-long struggle with shooting efficiency that tends to separate good players from great ones. For another, obviously, doing it for 29 games is a lot different than doing it for 82.
Doing it at all, though — while splitting time between the 1 and 2 spots, on a team light on offensive talent without Wemby and Fox, and while continuing to take tough challenges on defense — is pretty damn impressive to me. And in the absence of a no-doubt-about-it counterargument from elsewhere in the class, it was impressive enough to give Castle the duke.
Second place goes to Wells, who led the rookie class in estimated plus-minus; tied Bub Carrington for first place among first-year players in 3-pointers made and finished second in attempts; and was the only rookie to shoot at least 35% from deep on five-plus launches a night. Get well soon, young fella. A bright future awaits.
The final spot on the ballot came down to Wells’ teammate, massive center Zach Edey, and Risacher, the No. 1 pick in the draft. On a per-minute and per-possession basis, Edey made the bigger impact. The 7-foot-4 Purdue standout outpaced Risacher in virtually every advanced metric; Memphis outscored opponents by nearly six points per 100 possessions with Edey on the court, while Atlanta got outscored by just under three points-per-100 in Risacher’s minutes.
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But those broad-stroke metrics undersell Risacher’s achievements, I think. Dude walked into the NBA as a 19-year-old on a team desperate for more contributors on the wing, and immediately stepped into the starting small forward spot, averaging 25 minutes a game and never really looking like he didn’t belong. He’s gotten better as the season has worn on, too, shooting 58% inside the arc and 41% beyond it on five attempts per game since the start of January.
For all the improvements he still has to make — as a ball-handler, as an individual shot creator, etc. — Risacher already looks like a credible big-wing shooter capable of popping for 30 when he’s hot who can hold his own defensively. He’s already a starter on a postseason team, and he has room to grow. Risacher might not be exactly what you’d typically hope for when you land the No. 1 pick in the draft, but I don’t think the Hawks are at all disappointed by what he’s provided.
Just missing the cut: Edey, Donovan Clingan, Matas Buzelis.
Coach of the Year
1. Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
2. J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons
3. Tyronn Lue, Los Angeles Clippers
I expected the Cavs to be better this season, provided they could get healthier seasons from Mitchell, Garland and Mobley, who missed a combined 84 games last year. But I didn’t expect this: 64 wins, the No. 1 seed in the East, turning in one of the best offenses we’ve seen in decades, and looking like a more serious title contender than any Cavaliers team we’ve ever seen that didn’t have LeBron James in uniform.
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Yes, a lot of that comes down to better health — not just from the aforementioned trio of starters, but also from Ty Jerome, who went from “shelved with an ankle injury” for nearly all of last season to “one of the most helpful reserve ball-handlers in the league” this year. But Atkinson also deserves a ton of credit: for reimagining Cleveland’s offense as a more democratized pass-and-cut attack leveraging Mitchell and Garland as off-ball threats to create wider driving lanes from the perimeter and more opportunities for the Cavs’ excellent bigs on the interior; for getting Mitchell to buy into an approach that decreased his primacy slightly in favor of getting the most out of everybody else; for unleashing Mobley as an on-ball creator, moving him toward the center of the picture rather than relegating him to the fringes of the frame; and more.
Regression to the mean would’ve made Cleveland better; Atkinson’s revisions made them not just great, but one of the best regular-season teams in recent history. He takes first, just barely, over Bickerstaff, the man he replaced … who promptly went across Lake Erie and revitalized a long moribund Pistons franchise.
Bickerstaff did one of the smartest things a new head coach can do when taking over a team without a ton of elite individual offensive talent: He prioritized tilting the possession game by sweating the small stuff. Under Bickerstaff, the Pistons turned the ball over less and forced turnovers more frequently. They placed a significant premium on pushing the pace, finishing fourth in the NBA in the share of their offensive possessions that came in transition.
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They pounded the offensive glass at a top-10 rate — and, crucially, did so without sacrificing transition defense. They cranked up their 3-point volume while continuing to pressure the rim, helping turn what had consistently been one of the NBA’s worst half-court offenses into a near-league-average outfit. They leapt to 11th in defensive efficiency — the best finish of any Pistons team in nearly a decade — by aggressively packing the paint and limiting both shot attempts at the rim and shooting percentage on up-close tries at elite levels.
The Pistons have been one of the toughest teams in the NBA for the past four months, and enter their opening-round series with the Knicks a legitimate threat to pull an upset due in large part to Bickerstaff doing the same thing in Detroit that he did in Memphis back in 2018, and in Cleveland three years: getting a young team organized, and making it considerably better. That earns him the No. 2 spot on my ballot.
Third place goes to Lue, whose Clippers team entered the season having lost its second-best player in free agency and was missing its best player for almost all of the first half of the season … and ended it with 50 wins and a thrilling 11th-hour evasion of the play-in tournament.
Lue designed a framework that could survive without Paul George or Kawhi Leonard — one built on one of the NBA’s nastiest, most versatile defenses, and on coaxing just enough offensive juice out of this version of James Harden and the best versions we’ve seen of Zubac and Norman Powell. The architecture held, keeping L.A. in the playoff picture until Leonard knocked off the rust and ramped up his workload all the way to full tilt; since Kawhi hit the 30-minute mark in early February, the Clips have been one of the NBA’s best teams.
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I’m not sure any coach has had to roll with as many punches, at as high a level of pressure, as Lue over the past few seasons. I’m pretty sure, though, that nobody’s done a better job of it this season. He edges out a bunch of other qualified contenders for the last slot.
Just missing the cut: Ime Udoka, who has completely transformed the Rockets in less than two seasons, turning what had been a broadly unserious outfit into one of the toughest, most physical teams in the NBA — and the No. 2 seed in the West; Mark Daigneault, who continues to foster what seems like the absolute best developmental atmosphere for young talent the NBA has to offer in Oklahoma City; Joe Mazzulla, who took the reins from Udoka in Boston and has not hit the brakes once since, sending the Celtics into the championship stratosphere; JJ Redick, who walked from the broadcast booth/podcast studio into one of the most exceedingly difficult coaching jobs in the league and vaulted the Lakers back to contention in the West.
Sixth Man of the Year
1. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
2. Malik Beasley, Detroit Pistons
3. Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers
I expect Beasley to top a lot of ballots — maybe enough to wind up taking the award outright. He became just the fifth player in NBA history to make 300 3-pointers in a single season, and only the second (alongside Stephen friggin’ Curry) to launch at least a dozen long balls per 36 minutes of floor time and cash in more than 40% of them.
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Beasley’s neon-green light from long distance helped decongest an offense that had spent the previous few seasons clenched tighter than Arthur’s fist. After four straight seasons finishing 27th or worse in half-court scoring efficiency, Detroit climbed out of the bottom third this season, and scored at a just-below-league-average rate with Beasley roaming the perimeter, forever ready to rise and fire. The extra respect that Beasley — and fellow newcomers Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. — demands from opposing defenses helped create the space that Cunningham needed to blossom into an All-Star; he’s been central to the season-long renaissance in Detroit, one of the NBA’s best stories.
Then there’s Pritchard, who led all bench players in points scored, 3-pointers made and attempted (Beasley started 18 games), and plus-minus, averaging 14 points per game on .638 true shooting with a 3.4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Boston outscored opponents by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions with Pritchard coming off the bench, scoring and defending at top-three levels in those minutes.
Put Pritchard on the ball and he can facilitate for others. Station him away from the action and he’s a catch-and-shoot threat opponents have to honor. Close out hard on him and he can put the ball on the deck, drive to the paint and either finish, drop the ball off to a lurking big man or spray it out to the perimeter to keep Mazzulla’s bombs-away machine whirring. He’s a willing screener adept at enabling Boston’s bigger wings to hunt mismatches; he’s a tough, physical defender who plays bigger than his size and doesn’t give an inch.
Yes, Pritchard benefits from playing on an excellent roster, but that roster benefits from him, too. Lineups featuring Pritchard in place of any of Boston’s top guns — Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņġis and Al Horford — continued to cook, not missing a beat thanks to Pritchard’s combination of floor-spacing, playmaking, turnover avoidance and defensive competitiveness. He helps ensure that Boston’s opponents can’t exhale, whether it’s when one of their All-Stars checks out midway through the quarter or when the C’s get one last shot at the end of it.
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There might not have been a more important reserve in the league this season than Beasley. For my money, though, there wasn’t a better one than Pritchard. He gets the nod, with Beasley slotting in second.
I considered a few options for third. De’Andre Hunter played the best ball of his career this season, first as a source of instant offense in Atlanta before getting dealt to Cleveland, and then as a hand-in-glove fit on a Cavs team with championship aspirations. Reigning Sixth Man winner Naz Reid, still a vital and versatile frontcourt piece, helped make all sorts of lineups work for Chris Finch in Minnesota while scoring more and nearly as efficiently this season. But I decided to recognize Jerome, whose emergence as a full-fledged game-changer in the backcourt was a massive development that helped kickstart Cleveland’s transformation into one of the best offenses in recent memory.
The 6-foot-5 guard averaged 12.5 points, 3.4 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 1.1 steals in just 19.9 minutes per game, shooting 57% on 2-pointers, 44% on 3s and 87% from the foul line with a 2.6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Whether he shared the floor with Garland, with Mitchell or with neither of them, Cleveland’s offense roasted opponents with Jerome on the floor. He fits perfectly into Atkinson’s approach as a playmaker equally adept at working on or off the ball, running pick-and-rolls or spotting up on the weak side, firing off the catch or making the extra pass to turn a good look into a great one. Reasonable people can disagree about whether Hunter’s heavier minutes load or Reid’s higher place in his team’s overall pecking order merits the slot more than someone who didn’t average 20 minutes per game. On this ballot, though, Jerome’s remarkable efficiency and contributions to ensuring the high floor of Cleveland’s offense earns the final spot.
Just missing the cut: Hunter, Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Minnesota, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in OKC, Santi Aldama, Isaiah Stewart (if he qualifies).
Most Improved Player
1. Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets
2. Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
3. Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers
Remember that whole thing about how I voted for Daniels as the Defensive Player of the Year? Well, add in the facts that he averaged career highs in points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage and 3-point accuracy; that his true shooting percentage improved despite assuming a higher usage rate, which isn’t how the usage-efficiency curve typically works; that his assist rate rose while his turnover rate dropped; and that he went from the fringes of the Pelicans’ rotation to a linchpin of a postseason team. Pretty decent glow-up.
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Zubac deserves as much credit as anybody — along with Lue, James Harden and Norman Powell — for the Clippers not only staying afloat amid Leonard’s absence, but ultimately landing at 50 wins. The ninth-year big man averaged 16.8 points, 12.6 rebounds (3.8 of them on the offensive glass) and 2.7 assists in 32.8 minutes per game — all career highs — while shooting 62.8% from the field. He ranked at or near the top of the league in post, elbow and paint touches per game, and in points in the paint, becoming an absolute mauler when he got the ball down low. He was even better on the other end, holding opponents to just 56.7% shooting at the rim, a top-10 mark among high-volume interior deterrents who met the 65-game threshold, and fourth in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate. The Clippers rode the league’s No. 3 defense to escape the play-in, and that unit was at its best with Zubac patrolling the paint — and playing the best basketball of his life.
Ditto for Braun, who faced major questions heading into the campaign — would he really be ready to step into the Nuggets’ starting lineup and replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope? — and answered every single one of them.
Whether sprinting out to get on the other end of hit-ahead passes from Jokić or just grabbing the ball off the rim and hitting the gas himself, the former Kansas standout often served as a one-man transition game for Denver, leading the NBA in fast-break points this season. Thanks in part to those high-percentage transition looks, Braun went from hitting 50% of his 2-point shots last season to 65% this season — part of an across-the-board shooting improvement that also included a 47% hit rate on midrange jumpers, a 40% clip from beyond the arc and 83% accuracy at the charity stripe.
All told, Braun’s true shooting percentage leapt 11 points from last season to this one, making him one of the most efficient sources of complementary offense in the league this year. Combine that with aggressive, physical and sound work as the top perimeter defender on a Nuggets team that needs all the help it can get on that end, and you’ve got a recipe for producing the single biggest year-over-year improvement in estimated plus-minus of any player to log major minutes — from 291st last season to 52nd this season.
Heading into the season, Braun seemed like a question mark in Denver. Now, he seems like one of the roster’s surest things. As definitions for “improvement” go, that one ain’t half bad.
Just missing the cut: Austin Reaves, Cade Cunningham, Tyler Herro, Deni Avdija, Jalen Williams, Evan Mobley.
Clutch Player of the Year
1. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
3. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
No player in the NBA scored more points per game in “clutch” situations — when the score’s within five points in the final five minutes — than Brunson’s 5.6. No player to appear in at least five contests featuring “clutch” time shouldered a heavier offensive burden than Brunson, who finished an eye-popping 42.4% of the Knicks’ close-and-late possessions with a shot attempt, foul drawn or turnover committed — and there were a hell of a lot more of the first two than the third, with New York’s captain coughing it up just eight times in 135 “clutch” minutes.
All told, Brunson went 52-for-101 (51.5%) from the field in the final five minutes with the margin inside of five points, 32-for-56 (57.1%) in the final three minutes and the game within three points, and 13-for-23 (56.5%) in the final minute of a one-possession game — all on a shot diet consisting almost exclusively of brutally tough looks with taller, longer defenders draped all over him. He led the NBA in makes to either tie or take the lead in the last two minutes, with 14; no other player had more than seven.
Jokić’s crunch-time buckets came slightly less frequently than Brunson’s, but just as efficiently — 50-for-89 (56.2%) in “clutch” time for the Joker — and in a wider variety of forms, with remarkable consistency, and when the Nuggets needed them most: According to Stathead, the big fella led the league in shots to tie or take the lead in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Add in his peerless playmaking — 36 “clutch” assists, second-most in the NBA, against 15 turnovers — and ability to get to the line, and Jokić was just as much of a monster in the late stages of tight games as he was … well, at every other stage of every other kind of game, really.
Young rounds out the list, finishing third in total clutch points scored, dishing a league-best 37 clutch assists, and leading the pack by a mile in crunch-time free throws attempted and made. Especially after Jalen Johnson’s season-ending injury, the Hawks’ offense depends heavily on Young’s ability to wrong-foot a defender, create space and generate a good look for himself or a teammate; without him doing it in the clutch as consistently as he has this season, Atlanta’s season would likely already be over, rather than once again extending into the play-in tournament.
Just missing the cut: Edwards, Haliburton, LeBron, Tatum, Tyrese Maxey.
Whew. All right. Let’s finish up with the team selections, which we’ll rapid-fire through because, let’s be honest, my editor already hates me enough as it is:
All-NBA
First Team
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
If that quintet looks familiar, it’s probably because it’s my MVP ballot.
Second Team
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
Stephen Curry, Warriors
Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
Jalen Brunson, Knicks
Mobley’s level-up sent the Cavs to the moon. Steph’s resurgence put Golden State back in the postseason. Brunson remains the straw that stirs the drink for the top-five offense of the third-seeded Knicks. Haliburton was almost exactly as good in the second half of this season as he was in the first half of last season, fueling the Pacers to 50 wins and a top-four seed. Ant’s encore to last season’s breakthrough? Becoming a Steph/Dame/Klay-level high-volume 3-point marksman and finishing fourth in the NBA in scoring to lead a top-10 offense. Decent!
Third Team
LeBron James, Lakers
Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Alperen Şengün, Rockets
Towns was everything the Knicks could’ve asked for offensively, and played like the best non-Giannis big in the East for most of the season. Cunningham blossomed into the kind of full-tilt nightmare that pundits had predicted he’d be ever since his high school days. JJJ married his all-world rim protection with the advances he made last season as an off-the-dribble scorer, resulting in the best ball he’s ever played. LeBron somehow managed to still be LeBron at age 40 for a Lakers team that won 50 games and earned a top-three seed. Şengün continued to develop as an anchor for a top-five defense, a linchpin for a shockingly near-top-10 offense, and the best player on the West’s No. 2 seed — an incredibly impressive rise that nudged him just past Jalen Williams for the final spot on my ballot.
Apologies to: Williams, Darius Garland, Ivica Zubac, James Harden, Trae Young, Pascal Siakam.
All-Defensive
First Team
Dyson Daniels, Hawks
Luguentz Dort, Thunder
Draymond Green, Warriors
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
Amen Thompson, Rockets
My top three finishers in DPOY voting make my First Team. So does Mobley, who does damn near everything you could ask for on the defensive end at an above-average-to-awesome level. We round out the squad with Thompson, a panic-attack-inducing perimeter wraith who led all qualifying players in defensive EPM, who’s one of just two players in the NBA to tally at least 85 blocks and 85 steals (along with Jaren Jackson Jr.), who protects the rim like an elite big man, and who generally checks every box, on and off the ball, for the Rockets’ top-flight defense.
Second Team
Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
Ivica Zubac, Clippers
Jalen Williams, Thunder
OG Anunoby, Knicks
I made the case for J-Dub earlier; he gets a second selection for Oklahoma City here. Gobert, Jackson and Zubac earn their spots for serving as the back-line anchors for top-10, postseason-bound defenses. Anunoby — a physical, possession-wrecking defender who snuffs out drives as the primary point-of-attack option on a Knicks team that quietly finished just outside the top 10 in points allowed per possession — takes the last spot.
Apologies to, in no particular order: Bam Adebayo, Jaden McDaniels, Toumani Camara, Derrick White, Jarrett Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
All-Rookie
First Team
Stephon Castle, Spurs
Jaylen Wells, Grizzlies
Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks
Zach Edey, Grizzlies
Kel’el Ware, Heat
My ROY ballot is joined by last-cut Edey and Ware, who got a crack at rotation minutes in late December, moved into the starting lineup in January, and showed an impressive mix of interior finishing, nascent floor-spacing shooting and event-creating defense next to Bam in two-big lineups for the Heat.
Second Team
Donovan Clingan, Trail Blazers
Matas Buzelis, Bulls
Isaiah Collier, Jazz
Ron Holland, Pistons
Yves Missi, Pelicans
Clingan tied for seventh in the NBA in blocks, held opponents to 49.5% shooting at the rim (fourth-best among 97 players to contest at least 200 up-close tries) and dished 2.1 assists per 36 minutes of floor time — a very cool (and pretty rare) combination of rim protection and complementary playmaking. Holland walked into Detroit as a 19-year-old and earned rotation minutes on a playoff team — no mean feat — due in no small part to being a willing, capable, tough-as-hell defender. Buzelis has flashed explosiveness, shot-making and defensive playmaking for a Bulls team that perked up after the trade deadline. Collier’s playmaking was one of precious few bright spots in a dismal Jazz campaign; ditto for Missi’s finishing, rebounding and flashes of rim protection in New Orleans.
Apologies to, in no particular order: Jared McCain, who looked to be well on his way to Rookie of the Year honors before tearing his meniscus in December; the Wizards’ trio of Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George and Bub Carrington, who took their fair share of lumps in a get-the-growing-pains-out-of-the-way season in D.C.; Quinten Post and Jaylen Clark, who made their presence felt in limited minutes in Golden State and Minnesota, respectively; Kyle Filipowski; Jamal Shead.
