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By the time that the NBA Draft Lottery show begins at 6:00 PM today, the drawing will have already been completed in secret, with the top four picks selected from the 14 non-playoff teams with odds determined by a somewhat arcane process. This article by Marilyn Dubinsky has more detail on how the process works. The show will reveal the results of the lottery in reverse order starting the the team that has the 14th pick, and ending with the first pick, which will almost certainly be for Cooper Flagg, who is widely considered to the the best available player this year.
For Spurs fans, there could be some drama early, but most likely all of the excitement will be over by the time the 8th pick is announced. Here’s what to watch:
14th Pick: There’s about a 97% chance that the Spurs will be announced as the holder of the last pick in the lottery (pick traded from the Hawks). If a different team is announced, that’s very good news, because that means that the Spurs would own one of the top 4 picks. With a 3% chance of happening, it seems unlikely, but hey, you gotta hope. Even if the Spurs end up keeping this pick, the chances are good for acquiring a solid player in this range of the draft.
13th to 9th picks: The teams in this range should be Kings, Bulls, Mavericks, Rockets, and Suns—in that order. If one of them isn’t called, it means that one or more of them made it into the top four, and it could be bad news—that means that the Spurs expected 8th pick could be moving down to 9th or 10th. There are some extremely improbable scenarios where it even falls to 11th or 12th, but it would be pretty weird if that occurred.
8th pick: If the Spurs are announced as the 8th pick, then the show is over for Spurs fans, because they can’t get into the top four for the Flagg games. There will be some really good players available at the 8th pick, so they have a really good shot at picking a starter level player with this pick even if they don’t move up. If the Spurs haven’t been called a second time by now, it’s good news, because they’re in the top four.
Picks 7-5: Spurs can’t land in this range, so grab a sandwich.
Picks 1-4: If you’re still watching here, I assume that the Spurs haven’t been called twice yet, and you’re waiting to see of the Spurs are going to capture the Flagg. Really, there’s no losing here, because any of the top four are going to be very good players, and it’s a big win for the Silver and Black. It is rumored that the Spurs got a pretty good player with the fourth pick last year.
Lottery Prediction:
After the Spurs win the top two picks, it it revealed that the Holt family placed giant magnets just outside the room where the lottery was held. Due to the difficulty of proving that the magnets affected the drawings, the results are allowed to stand.
GO SPURS GOOOO!!!
