The 2025 NBA Draft is around two months away. Everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough or feel more certain about the top players in the draft class.
In order to do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent.
Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified during the 2019-20 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.
There were 47 sophomores throughout the 11 college basketball seasons from 2010-2020 who played at least 40% of their team’s minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +9, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 68.09% (32/47) of those sophomores played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.
The purpose of this query is to find players who are still underclassmen (but not freshmen) that are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team’s minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.
Below are the players who met the Productive Sophomore Query from 2010-2020 and ended up “sticking” in the NBA:
2010: Draymond Green
2011: Derrick Williams
2012: Will Barton, Terrence Jones, Dion Waiters, and Jared Sullinger
2013: Cody Zeller, Trey Burke, Kenatvious Caldwell-Pope, and Otto Porter
2014: Gary Harris, Kyle Anderson, TJ Warren, Marcus Smart, and Willie Cauley-Stein
2015: Josh Hart and Kris Dunn
2016: Jakob Poeltl
2017: John Collins, Donovan Mitchell, and Mikal Bridges
2018: Robert Williams
2019: Bruno Fernando, De’Andre Hunter, Ja Morant, PJ Washington, Chuma Okeke, and Xavier Tillman
2020: Devin Vassell, Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Smith, and Obi Toppin
Two players met the criteria in 2021: Franz Wagner and Drew Timme. Timme averaged nearly 24 points per game for the Long Island Nets before being called up to a rest-of-season contract plus a team option for 25-26 with the Nets. He then averaged 12.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in nine games with the Nets. Wagner is likely to be named an All-Star for the Orlando Magic within the next two seasons.
An incredible nine players qualified for the Productive Sophomore Query in 2022. Those players were Christian Koloko, Hunter Dickinson, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Mark Williams, Zach Edey, Walker Kessler, Tari Eason, and Keegan Murray.
Jackson-Davis, Williams, Kessler, Eason, Edey, and Murray have all solidified themselves as standout players on their respective rosters.
After starting 19 games and appearing in 58 games for the Raptors in the 2022-23 season, Koloko unfortunately battled blood clots before returning this past season for the Lakers and appearing in 37 games.
Dickinson spent his last two seasons as an impact player for Kansas after playing his first three seasons at Michigan. He averaged 17.4 points and ten rebounds as a graduate student for the Jayhawks this past season. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a 7-footer for Creighton that has spent five seasons as a Bluejay — improving each season. He averaged 19.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 0.5 steals, and 2.7 blocks this past season. He also qualified for the Productive Junior Query in the 2021-22 season, which has a 66% “stick” rate.
Only one player hit the Productive Sophomore Query in 2023: Brandin Podziemski. The 6-foot-5 guard has been a key part of the Warriors’ rotation in his first two seasons and is averaging 11.7 points, 3.4 assists, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.1 steals in 26.8 minutes per game while shooting 37.2% from beyond the arc on 4.8 attempts per game this season.
Two players qualified in the 2024 season: Kyle Filipowski and Donovan Clingan.
Filipowski averaged 21.1 minutes pr game in his rookie season with the Jazz, appearing in 72 total games and starting in 27 of them. The former Duke big man averaged 9.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and one stock per game while shooting 35% from beyond the arc (220 attempts) for Utah this past season.
Clingan started 37 games and appeared in 67 total games for the Blazers in his rookie season, averaging 19.8 minutes per game. The former UConn big man averaged 6.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, and 0.5 steals while recording a 7.5 block percentage and 1.2 steal percentage.
Check out a scouting report on Filipowski’s offense at Duke here and a scouting report on his defense here.
Six sophomores met the criteria of the Productive Sophomore Query this past season.
Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina
After meeting the criteria for the Productive Young Athlete query last season as a freshman, which has a 76% stick rate, CMB returned to South Carolina for another extremely productive season.
The 6-foot-7, 231-pound forward averaged 16.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks this past season. Additionally, he finished 69.7% of his attempts at the rim (228 attempts), 39.5% of his non-rim twos (76 attempts), 26.5% of his threes (34 attempts), and 70.7% of his free throws (188 attempts). He also recorded a 8.8 offensive rebound percentage, 23.8 defensive rebound percentage, 21.1 assist percentage, and 7.6 stock percentage. The South Carolina forward is a projected lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
A player making waves for deciding to return to Texas Tech for his junior season amidst a reported $4M NIL deal, Toppin — like Collin Murray-Boyles — also met the criteria for the Productive Young Athlete query as a freshman last season.
The 6-foot-9, 210-pound sophomore averaged 18.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game this past season while shooting 67.8% at the rim (205 attempts), 48.4% on non-rim twos (184 attempts), 32.7% from beyond the arc (55 attempts), and 67.6% from the free throw line (136 attempts). He also recorded a 14.0 offensive rebound percentage, 26.1 defensive rebound percentage, 10.1 assist percentage, and a 7.6 stock percentage.
Thomas Haugh, Florida
The 6-foot-9, 215-pound Gator announced yesterday that he will be returning to Florida for his junior season.
Haugh was a key component to Florida’s championship run, averaging 9.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.6 stocks in only 24.4 minutes per game. He recorded a 10.7 offensive rebound percentage, 14.2 assist percentage, and a stock percentage of five. Efficiency-wise, the fluid big man shot 66.4% at the rim (110 attempts), 29.6% on non-rim twos (27 attempts), 34% from beyond the arc (103 attempts), and 79.4% from the free throw line (155 attempts).
Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois*
Technically not a true sophomore, as Ivisic played professional basketball overseas before reaching a deal with the NCAA and enrolling at the Illinois, the 7-foot-1, 255-pound big averaged 13 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.8 stocks per game while shooting 83.6% at the rim (67 attempts), 46.9% on non-rim twos (96 attempts), 35.7% from three (154 attempts), and 75% from the free throw line (64 attempts) this past season.
Alex Condon, Florida
Another crucial component to Florida’s championship run, the 6-foot-11 big for Florida averaged 10.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game for the champion Gators this past season. Condon shot 65% at the rim (160 attempts), 27.9% on non-rim twos (61 attempts), 32.8% from beyond the arc (58 attempts), and 60.4% from the free throw line (169 attempts). He also recorded a 12.5 offensive rebound percentage, 15 assist percentage, and a 7.5 stock percentage.
Nolan Winter, Wisconsin
The 6-foot-11 big averaged 9.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 0.8 stocks while shooting 78.5% at the rim (107 attempts), 39.1% on non-rim twos (23 attempts), 35.8% from three (95 attempts), and 76.9% from the free throw line (78 attempts).
Players that decided to return to college who have hit the Productive Sophomore Query: JT Toppin, Thomas Haugh, Nolan Winter, and Tomislav Ivisic*
Players who declared or are automatically eligible for the 2025 NBA Draft who have hit the Productive Sophomore Query in the past: Collin Murray-Boyles, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hunter Dickinson, and Alex Condon
Conclusion: Why is this Useful?
The Productive Sophomore Query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.
For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you’re considering a player with a second round pick (or even a lottery pick in Collin Murray-Boyles’ case) who’s met the Productive Sophomore Query, it may be a sense of comfort that 68% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.
This is especially important to take into account, as only 29% of second round picks from the 1990-2018 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PSQ query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.
