With the NBA Draft quickly approaching, everyone wants to discover a diamond in the rough.
To do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent. That being said, it is of the utmost importance to consider the logic behind the factors included in these queries. While exploring different statistics, I came across a combination of criteria that is logical through the “eye” test and reliably predicts talent. Let’s call it the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query.
Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Prospects in the 2022 NBA Draft met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.
The Main Study
Since 2008, 77% of Freshmen with a MIN% ≥ 40, BPM ≥ 7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 84 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2019 NBA Drafts, 65 of them went on to play 5+ seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league. Although it’s fun to toggle around with different queries and Barttorvik.com to discover what metrics are most indicative of future success for prospects, it’s important to ask: “What do these four criteria really mean? What picture does it paint about prospects with these four criteria in common?”
Well, let’s define each. A freshman is the first-year of a player at a college or university, indicating a young age of around 18 years old. MIN% is the percentage of the team’s total minutes that a prospect plays in. These two criteria alone help narrow prospects down into college basketball players that are young, but are already trusted by their college coach and talented enough to play significant (defined here as ≥40% of the team’s total) minutes.
Next indicator, and this is the most important one, is a Box Plus-Minus greater than or equal to 7.5. Box Plus-Minus, or BPM, is a box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team. Widely considered as one of the most relevant publicly-available advanced statistics in the basketball world, BPM is applied to the NBA game as well. For example, to show its relevance, the four NBA players with the highest BPMs this season are four of the favorites for MVP: Nikola Jokic (13.3), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11.5), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (9.5). Therefore, if a prospect is a freshman with a MIN%≥40 and a BPM≥7.5, this means they are likely to be young, playing almost a majority of their team’s minutes, and contributing to the game significantly over a replacement-level player when out on the floor.
The final layer to this statistical Productive Young Athlete query is the threshold of four total dunks throughout the season. Despite this not seeming like a lot, adding this criteria increases the hit-rate from 72.5% to 77% while only decreasing the sample size from 91 to 84 prospects since 2008. This dunk threshold helps to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric to exclude a few prospects who are productive in college but lack basic athleticism to be in the NBA.
Therefore, freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and Four Total Dunks throughout the season (Productive Young Athlete query) have a 77% chance to “stick” in the NBA historically due to them being young players trusted and talented enough to play big minutes, significantly contributing positively to the game, and having a baseline level of athleticism.
Who Gets Left Out?
No analytical metric can be perfect, and it’s important to analyze why certain elite prospects might get left out of my four criteria – especially the threshold of four total dunks. Out of the seven players that the sample cuts from 91 to 84 players when instituting the 4-dunk threshold, two of them are 6-foot-3 or taller. None of them “stuck” in the NBA. Out of the five freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, but less than four total dunks in their season who are shorter than 6-foot-3, two of them “stuck” in the NBA. These two players are Tyus Jones and Trae Young, both of whom are impactful both at the rim and as primary ball-handlers without needing to dunk.
Who Didn’t Stick?
You may be wondering: “If these four criteria combined are so indicative, who are the 19 prospects who didn’t stick who met all four since 2008?”
Let’s walk through each year:
2008: In the 2008 criteria-meeting class, Robbie Hummel and LaceDarius Dunn both met all four criteria but neither played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Robbie Hummel dealt with nagging injuries in his first two years in the NBA, and continued to deal with them overseas professionally. He retired in 2017 to become one of the best TV analysts in college basketball. On the other hand, LaceDarius Dunn had significant off-the-court question-marks and was indefinitely suspended from the Baylor Bears men’s basketball team.
2009: All three of the players who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA, which included the likes of Gordon Hayward, Greg Monroe and Tyreke Evans.
2010: Xavier Henry was the only player not to “stick,” and he played in 185 NBA games over the course of five seasons and ruptured his left Achilles tendon nine games into his fifth season. Unfortunately, this ended his career and he was waived by the Lakers.
2011: Javon McCrea was the only player not to “stick,” and this was due to a clear lack of a perimeter game. He attempted only 4 threes his entire career at 6-foot-7 and shot only 66.7% from the free throw line. Lack of a perimeter game, in addition to unfortunate injuries, are the most common causes of why prospects didn’t “stick.”
2012: Three players didn’t “stick” out of the seven who qualified, and all three of whom struggled from the perimeter.
2013: Two players didn’t “stick” out of the six who qualified: Anthony Bennett and Sam Dekker. Regarding Bennett, nothing more really needs to be said as he is widely considered one of the bigger draft misses of all time. From an on-court standpoint, there’s not a ton of reasoning a college player like him wouldn’t “stick.” Dekker, meanwhile, appeared in 201 NBA games and fell just short of playing for five-plus NBA seasons (not counting his one minute played in one game on the Raptors in the 2021-22 NBA season).
2014: The one player who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA (Joel Embiid).
2015: Eight out of nine players who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA. The only player who didn’t “stick” was Gary Clark out of Cincinnati, and he played 170 games over his four NBA seasons.
2016: The only player who qualified this season that didn’t “stick” was Mike Daum. The 6’9” South Dakota State phenom was a poor defender and didn’t provide much NBA-level athleticism.
2017: Two of the thirteen players who qualified this year didn’t “stick,” and they were Justin Patton and TJ Leaf. Patton needed two surgeries to repair a broken left foot that limited him in his first season, then suffered a broken right foot the season after. Patton is another unfortunate example of injuries cutting a career short. TJ Leaf played in 146 NBA games over his first four NBA seasons, but eventually fizzled out of the rotations for both the Pacers and Blazers and subsequently signed a deal in China.
2018: Two players didn’t “stick” out of the nine who qualified: Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver. Smith unfortunately fractured his foot in camp prior to his rookie season beginning, then dealt with a lingering knee injury the rest of his two-year career on the Sixers. Culver suffered a right ankle injury in his second season that required surgery and played 144 games over his four-year NBA career.
2019: Two players who met the criteria didn’t “stick” in the NBA, and they were Nick Musynski and Ignas Brazdeikis. Musynski, like a couple of the other prospects who didn’t “stick” despite meeting the four criteria, struggled shooting on the perimeter. When he qualified as a freshman, he was shooting 19% from beyond the arc. Despite improving his 3-point percentage as his college career progressed, Musynski wasn’t heavily considered as a draftable prospect.
Ignas Brazdeikis is a unique case. Despite being considered someone who didn’t “stick,” as he appeared in only 65 NBA games over his first three NBA seasons, he won a championship with Žalgiris Kaunas in his home country of Lithuania in 2022-23 and was subsequently invited to the Toronto Raptors minicamp during the 2023 offseason. While he shot the ball efficiently in college (39.2% from three), Brazdeikis converted only 31.5% of his shots beyond the arc throughout his three year career (124 attempts).
2020: Vernon Carey Jr was the only player who met the criteria that didn’t stick in the NBA, and he struggled with injuries throughout his three years in the league.
2021: Both players who met the criteria in 2021, Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley, have solidified themselves in the NBA.
2022: The only player who didn’t stick in the NBA from 2022 was Kennedy Chandler who, despite having a perimeter game in college, had a college FT% of 60.6% – a stronger indicator of a lack of shooting ability. He converted 13.3% of his threes (15 attempts) his rookie season in Memphis and, at 6’0”, is part of the trend of undersized guards struggling to stick in the NBA.
Therefore, out of the 19 players who qualified by meeting the four criteria of Freshman with a MIN% ≥ 40, BPM ≥ 7.5, and 4 Total Dunks and didn’t “stick”:
*Some of the 19 prospects suffered from multiple of these commonalities
Note: Although a lack of a perimeter game appears to be a common occurrence about players that met the four criteria but didn’t “stick,” incorporating an additional threshold of 10 three-point attempts over the course of the season keeps the hit-rate at 77% but drastically decreases the sample size from 84 prospects to 66 since 2008.
Projecting Into The Future: Who Qualified for the Productive Young Athlete query in 2023 and 2024?
2023: There were four freshmen who met the criteria of the Productive Young Athlete query in the 2022-23 college basketball season: Brandon Miller, Dereck Lively II, Jarace Walker, and Brice Sensabaugh. All four were drafted in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft, with Miller, Lively and Walker all being drafted in the lottery.
Miller has been off to a tremendous start of his career, averaging 21 points, 3.6 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 0.7 blocks in 34.2 minutes per game this past season. Additionally, Lively was a key component of Dallas’ NBA Finals run in his rookie season, and continued to be a key role player in his sophomore season before suffering a right ankle stress fracture that led to him missing 46 games.
Jarace Walker was drafted 8th overall in the 2023 NBA Draft and, at the writing of this, has appeared in 75 regular season games and five playoff games for the Pacers this season. He averaged 6.1 points, 1.5 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and one stock in 13.2 minutes per game during the regular season. Walker, who doesn’t turn 22 until September, has potential to provide value to both the Pacers offense and defense in the coming years.
Read More: Jarace Walker’s Value Proposition to the Pacers Offense (June 28th, 2023)
Read More: Jarace Walker’s Value Proposition to the Pacers Defense (June 30th, 2023)
Brice Sensabaugh was drafted by the Utah Jazz 28th overall in the 2023 NBA Draft. He averaged 10.9 points, 1.5 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 0.7 stocks in 20.2 minutes per game in his second year this past season – shooting an impressive 42.2% from three (12.5 3PA/100 possessions | 372 total attempts).
2024: Three freshmen met the criteria of the Productive Young Athlete query in 2024 – Reed Sheppard, Collin Murray-Boyles, and JT Toppin.
Before we dive into statistical profiles on all three players, it’s important to recognize that Jared McCain hit the Box Plus-Minus, MIN%, and freshman criteria, but was two dunks short from meeting the Productive Young Athlete query. This, however, still puts him in the same category as Trae Young and Tyus Jones. As mentioned above, 72.5% of freshmen with a MIN%≥40 and a Box Plus-Minus of at least 7.5 play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.
Sheppard was drafted third overall by the Rockets in 2024 and averaged 4.4 points, 1.4 assists, 1.5 rebounds, and one stock in 12.6 minutes per game while shooting 33.8% from beyond the arc (142 attempts) in his rookie season with Houston.
Read More: Reed Sheppard Scouting Report (June 21, 2024)
Collin Murray-Boyles is a 6-foot-7, 231-pound big man who played two seasons at South Carolina before declaring for the 2025 NBA Draft. During his freshman season, when he qualified for the PYA Query, he averaged 10.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, one steal, and one block per game while recording a 12 ORB%, a 17.2 AST%, a 2.8 STL%, and a 4.6 BLK%. Additionally, Murray-Boyles finished 67.6% of his attempts at the rim (145 attempts) and 41.3% of his non-rim twos (46 attempts) during his freshman season. His free throw percentage of 66.7% (87 attempts) was not the strongest number, but was an adequate start that indicated some potential. His free throw percentage increased to 70.7% his sophomore season (188 attempts). Murray-Boyles only attempted five threes in total his freshman season, a number that also increased and improved at 26.5% from three on 34 total attempts in his sophomore campaign. CMB had an extremely impressive sophomore season as well — qualifying for the Productive Sophomore Query
A player who’s garnering significant public attention for deciding to return to Texas Tech for his junior season on a reported $4M NIL deal, Toppin had an impressive statistical profile his freshman season at New Mexico when he met the criteria for the Productive Young Athlete query. The 6-foot-9, 210 pound freshman averaged 12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game while recording a 14.4 offensive rebound percentage, 22.1 defensive rebound percentage, 2.2 steal percentage, and 7.6 block percentage. He finished 68.9% of his attempts at the rim (209 attempts) and 53.8% of his non-rim twos (65 attempts) while also shooting 34.4% from three (only 32 attempts). In his sophomore season at Texas Tech, Toppin’s free throw percentage increased to 67.6% on 136 attempts while his three point percentage remained fairly stagnant at 32.7% (55 attempts). Similar to Collin Murray-Boyles, Toppin also met my Productive Sophomore Query this past season.
2025: Who hit the Productive Young Athlete query this season?
Eight players met the Productive Young Athlete query this past season: Asa Newell, Carter Bryant, Cooper Flagg, Derik Queen, Dylan Harper, Jase Richardson, Khaman Maluach, and VJ Edgecombe.
Similar to Jared McCain, Kon Knueppel hit the Box Plus-Minus, MIN%, and freshman criteria, but was two dunks short from meeting the Productive Young Athlete query. 72.5% of freshmen with a MIN%≥40 and a Box Plus-Minus of at least 7.5 play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.
Asa Newell, Georgia
The 6-foot-11, 220-pound big man averaged 15.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 0.9 assists, one steal, one block, and one turnover per game while shooting 72.9% at the rim (188 attempts), 37.3% on non-rim twos (75 attempts), 29.2% from beyond the arc (89 attempts), and 74.8% from the free throw line (135 attempts). He also recorded a 13.9 offensive rebound percentage, 2.0 steal percentage, and 3.8 block percentage. Newell will be 19.7 years old at the 2025 NBA Draft.
Carter Bryant, Arizona
The 6-foot-8, 225-pound freshman averaged 6.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, one assist, 0.9 steals, one block, and one turnover in 19.3 minutes per game while shooting 76.7% at the rim (43 attempts), 32.1% on non-rim twos (28 attempts), 37.1% from beyond the arc (105 attempts | 8.4 3PA/100 possessions), and 69.5% from the free throw line (59 attempts). He also recorded an impressive 2.8 steal percentage and 5.8 block percentage, but only an 8.3 AST% amidst a 15.4 TOV%. Bryant will be 19.6 years old at the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.
Cooper Flagg, Duke
The Wooden Award winner averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 turnovers per game while shooting 60.5% at the rim (210 attempts), 39.5% on non-rim twos (152 attempts), 38.5% from beyond the arc (135 attempts | 7.1 3PA/100 poss), and 84% from the free throw line (213 attempts). He also recorded a 2.8 steal percentage and 4.9 block percentage and was tasked with a significant amount of offensive creation for himself and others at Duke – Flagg was unassisted on 57.3% of his made field goals this season while assisting on an estimated 26.8% of his teammate’s made field goals when on the floor (26.8 assist percentage). Flagg will be 18.5 years old at the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.
Derik Queen, Maryland
The 6-foot-10, 246-pound big man averaged 16.5 points, nine rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.4 turnovers per game while shooting 67.5% at the rim (231 attempts), 35.3% on non-rim twos (133 attempts), only 20% from three (35 attempts), but an impressive 76.6% from the free throw line (218 attempts). He also recorded a 9 offensive rebound percentage, 11.6 assist percentage, 2.0 steal percentage, 3.8 block percentage, but a 14.5 turnover percentage. Queen will be 20.5 years old at the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.
Dylan Harper, Rutgers
The 6-foot-6, 215-pound freshman averaged 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, four assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game while shooting 70% at the rim (170 attempts), 30.9% on non-rim twos (81 attempts), 33.3% from beyond the arc (150 attempts | 9.1 3PA/100 poss), and 75% from the free throw line (168 attempts). He also recorded a solid 2.6 STL% and 1.9 BLK%. Similar to Flagg, Harper created a tremendous amount of offense for Rutgers – he was unassisted on 74.2% of his made field goals while having a 27.1 AST%. He’ll be 19.2 years old at the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.
Jase Richardson, Michigan State
The 6’3”, 185-pound guard averaged 12.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 0.8 turnovers per game while shooting 69% at the rim (87 attempts), 40.7% on non-rim twos (91 attempts), 41.2% from three (114 attempts | 7.3 3PA/100 poss), and 83.6% from the FT line (122 attempts). The son of Jason Richardson will be 19.7 years old at the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.
Khaman Maluach, Duke
The 7-foot-2, 250-pound freshman averaged 8.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 0.5 assists, and 1.5 stocks per game while converting 76.9% of his rim attempts (156 attempts), 63.2% of his non-rim twos (19 attempts), only 25% of his threes (16 attempts), but an impressive 76.6% of his free throw attempts (77 attempts). Maluach was also active on the boards – recording a 16.5 offensive rebound percentage and 19.2 defensive rebound percentage. He’ll be 18.8 years old at the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.
VJ Edgecombe, Baylor
Edgecombe averaged 15 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1.9 turnovers per game while shooting 60.3% at the rim (126 attempts), 38.5% on non-rim twos (96 attempts), 34% from beyond the arc (153 attempts | 8.6 3PA/100 poss), and 78.2% from the free throw line (142 attempts). He also recorded a 7.1 offensive rebound percentage, 19.2 assist percentage, 3.8 steal percentage, and 2.3 block percentage. The former Baylor guard will be 19.9 years old at the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.
Conclusion: Why is this Useful?
The Productive Young Athlete query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.
For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you’re considering a player with a second round pick who’s met the Productive Young Athlete query, it may be a sense of comfort that 77% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.
This is especially important to take into account when you realize only 29% of second round picks from the 1990-2018 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PYA query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.
