It is win or go home for the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat tonight at State Farm Arena. In the final play-in game in the Eastern Conference, the two Southeast Division rivals will square off for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and a first round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
For the Atlanta Hawks however, there is more at stake than just a spot in the playoffs. Depending on the results of both play-in games tonight, the Hawks could have really good draft position or will depending on a coin toss to help them out.
Of course, the Hawks do not own their own 2025 Draft Pick (belongs to the Spurs), but they do own the Sacramento Kings pick if it falls out of the top 12, as well as owning the Los Angeles Lakers unprotected 1st Round Pick. The Kings were defeated by Dallas on Wednesday and the Mavericks face the Grizzlies tonight in Memphis.
Here is the draft order for each for each outcome tonight (per ESPN’s Bobby Marks).
1. If the Hawks and Grizzlies win:
11. Miami
12/13. Dallas
13/12/ Chicago.
14. Atlanta (via SAC)
15. San Antonio (via ATL)
16. Orlando
17. Minnesota (via DET)
18/19/20. Washington (via Memphis).
2. If the Hawks and the Mavericks Win
11. Miami
12. Chicago
13. Atlanta (via SAC)
14. Memphis
15. Dallas
16. San Antonio (Via ATL)
17. Orlando
18. Minnesota (via DET)
19/20. Brooklyn (via MIL)
20/19. Miami (Via GSW)
3. If the Heat and the Grizzlies win
11/12. Dallas
12/11. Chicago
13/14. Atlanta (Via SAC)
14/13. San Antonio (Via ATL)
15. OKC (Via MIA)
16. Orlando
17. Minnesota (Via DET)
18/19/20. Washington (Via Mem)
4. If the Heat and Mavericks Win
11. Chicago
12/13. San Antonio (Via ATL)
13/12. Atlanta (Via SAC)
14. Memphis
15. OKC (Via MIA)
16. Dallas
17. Orlando
18. Minnesota (Via DET)
19/20. Miami (Via GSW)
20/19. Brooklyn (MIL)
The different draft scenarios for tonight
Ties will be broken by a drawing
Sacramento keeps their own if 1-12 pic.twitter.com/FI0uJUqHe5
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) April 18, 2025
The Hawks and Grizzlies winning provides the most security for the Hawks, but the Hawks and Mavs winning is not bad. The big thing for the Hawks tonight is make sure they beat Miami, not only for their draft pick, but to keep San Antonio from getting another lottery pick and another shot at getting Cooper Flagg, as remote as it might seem.
This is going to be the fifth matchup of the season between the Hawks and the Heat. Three of the four matchups have taken place since the Heat made the move to trade Jimmy Butler and the Heat are 2-1 in those games. Will this game be any different?
When the Hawks were fully healthy with Jalen Johnson, Larry Nance, and Clint Capela, their defense, while not elite, was pretty good. Without these guys, it has been tough for the Hawks to defend. While the Hawks did have arguably their best defensive performance vs this Heat team on February 24th, holding Miami to 86 points and 17.5% from three. The last two matchups are a completely different story.
Just two days after holding the Heat to 86 points, Miami scored 131 points and shot 55% from three. The third quarter of that game saw the Heat score 42 points and pull away from the Hawks. In their most recent matchup on March 27th, Miami scored 122 points and shot 55% from three, with Tyler Herro scoring 36 points.
One thing about the most recent matchup was that the Hawks started Vit Krejci in place of Mouhamed Gueye, who ended up not playing in the game. I don’t expect that to happen again, as Gueye has been a pretty solid defender for the Hawks.
Miami is not one of the better offensive teams in the NBA, but they showed in the final two games against the Hawks and in last night’s game vs the Bulls, they can take advantage of poor defense. Atlanta has to be better on that end or their season will be over.
Shutting down Tyler Herro does not guarantee a Hawks win, but it would help. Last night against Chicago, Herro scored 38 points and he has had a fantastic season. In the Hawks victory over Miami on February 24th, Herro was 4-19 from the field and 0-9 from three, scoring 11 points. It is no secret that Dyson Daniels is going to be guarding Herro on Friday night and he and the rest of the Hawks defense will need to limit his effectiveness.
Feb 26, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) takes a shot over Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) and forward Georges Niang (20) in the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
Feb 26, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) drives past Atlanta Hawks forward Mouhamed Gueye (18) in the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
On Tuesday night vs Orlando, the Hawks supporting cast could not have been any worse.
Zacccharie Risacher was 2-10 from the field and scored seven points. Onyeka Okongwu had 11 points and nine rebounds, and Dyson Daniels scored seven points. Caris LeVert had seven points on 3-11 shooting. Georges Niang had 15 points, and Dominick Barlow, Terance Mann, and Vit Krejci combined for eight points. The Orlando bench outscored the Hawks’ bench 57-30.
How does the rotation look tomorrow? If not for foul trouble for Onyeka Okongwu, Barlow likely does not play and I don’t think Snyder wanted to play Krejci. Will it just be LeVert, Niang, and Mann tomorrow night? Those three guys, plus Risacher, have to have better games. Atlanta must also limit Miami’s role players. Duncan Robinson, Davion Mitchell, and Haywood Highsmith have had impact games against Atlanta this year and those are going to be the main guys Atlanta will see tomorrow along with the Heat’s regular starters.
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