On paper, this year’s NBA Finals looks like a total mismatch. The Oklahoma City Thunder are -700 favorites with the Indiana Pacers at +500 (via FanDuel). You might be thinking: The Pacers are in the Finals, how can this be seen as such a lopsided series? Well, the Pacers come from the Eastern Conference. They’re a very good team, but the West is, and the Thunder certainly are, a different animal. The odds are right.
Let’s start with the easiest, non-bold prediction. If the Thunder win, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the obvious favorite to win Finals MVP, as evidenced by his -550 line.
Aaron Nesmith is going to serve as the primary SGA defender, but he could be playing on a compromised ankle and is going to have a hell of a time staying out of foul trouble. Andrew Nembhard is too small. Pascal Siakam is going to be occupied with one of OKC’s big men or Jalen Williams when OKC goes small. Indiana applies a lot of ball pressure, and it’s going to end up working against them when SGA starts baiting them into fouls they cannot avoid in such tight quarters. The Pacers are either going to have back off or watch SGA shoot 100 free throws. Either way, Gilgeous-Alexander is set up for a huge series.
Now let’s get to five bolder Finals predictions, none of which are very good news for the boys from Indiana.
1. Pacers luck runs out
This is speaking directly to Indiana’s miraculous comebacks in these playoffs, which have defied all statistical logic and simply cannot, and will not, continue. Entering this postseason, NBA teams had gone 1-1,640 when trailing by at least seven points inside the final minute in the play-by-play era (1997).
I repeat, only one such win had occurred over the last 27 postseasons. The Pacers have done it three times, first rallying to beat the Bucks to close out their first-round series in Game 5, then doing the same to the Cavaliers in Game 2 of the conference semis, then doing the same to the Knicks in Game 1 of the conference finals.
The odds on this, based solely on historical data, are literally like 1 in 4 billion. Billion with a B. That number is likely a little misleading because you can change probabilities significantly with even minor variable tweaks, but suffice it to say, the Pacers winning three games in the same postseason after trailing by seven points with less than one minute to play is hitting a billion-dollar Powerball type stuff. Probably even a little less likely.
Indiana is a good team. I will say that many times throughout this piece. But there’s an element of craziness to this run that cannot be expected to continue. And it won’t. The Pacers will probably find themselves in a couple games during this series where they’ll be down two or three possessions with time running low and everyone is going to be joking how “they’ve got them right where they want them.”
Not going to happen. Tyrese Haliburton has hit two game-winners in these playoffs with under three seconds to play. That’s only happened four times since 1997. Again, the luck runs out on these things.
The Pacers will be in a couple of games at the end, but, as is typically the way it goes in the NBA until this postseason came along and dispensed of all things normal, they will fail to get over the hump because the Thunder are too good and because you can’t hit the Powerball four times in a month.
2. OKC wins the 3-point battle
Oklahoma City is taking more 3s per game in these playoffs, but the Pacers are making (slightly) more. The latter is the product of a scorching 40% conversion rate as a team, which is bound to come down against a Thunder defense that has held opponents to 33% from 3 in these playoffs by suffocating space and rotating to shooters at warp speed.
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, SGA is going to be next to impossible to keep out of the lane, which should create a lot of drive-and-kick and swing-swing 3s. Now, Oklahoma City has to make those 3s, which it hasn’t managed to do very efficiently so far (33% in the playoffs), and Indiana is generally committed to not helping away from shooters. But I believe that changes in the Finals when SGA starts killing them in the paint.
This is to say nothing of the offensive rebounding edge OKC could generate with it’s two-big lineups. Indiana has to avoid those extra-possession kick-out 3s that are killers to an underdog battling for everything it has just to get one stop, let alone multiple stops. Oklahoma City, I believe, is going to get a lot of these second-shot 3s.
If Indiana wants to compete in this series, it is going to have to take major advantage of the corner 3s that the Thunder can be apt to surrendering as they close down on driving lanes and prioritize ball pressure, but I think the general discomfort the Pacers will be feeling will make even the open looks feel contested, especially as the series goes on.
Verdict: OKC wins the 3-point battle, and in part by extension, the series.
3. Haliburton’s turnovers go up
Haliburton has all the flair of a modern player but is actually rooted in old-school point-guard principles: He’s a pass-first pilot who pushes pace and organizes possessions and, most importantly, does not turn the ball over. Through the first three rounds of these playoffs, Haliburton is averaging just 1.9 turnovers per games with a sparkling 5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
If he keeps protects the ball like that against OKC, God bless him. The Thunder lead the playoffs with 18 turnovers created per game, up from in the regular season, which also led the league. They are physical at the point with waves of defenders ready to roll into every action, so yo can forget justt screening one, or two, or even three of them, because there’s always another one coming.
Alex Caruso. Lu Dort. Jalen Williams. Cason Wallace. SGA. Aaron Wiggins. The perimeter pressure just doesn’t let up, and with the way the officials are letting defenders play super physically in these playoffs, hanging onto your dribble or not panic passing the ball into the waiting arms of a pick-six prowler is a monumental task vs. OKC. Haliburton is as up for the challenge as any point guard, but even he has to cave a little bit.
4. OKC registers two 20-point wins
OKC has won two games by at least 20 points in two of its three series so far. The only one in which it didn’t was against the Grizzlies in the first round, and that missed by a single point as they beat Memphis by 51 in Game 1 and 19 in Game 2.
Indiana will keep some games close and this should be an entertaining series regardless of the outcome just based on the contrasting strengths of OKC’s defense and Indiana’s offense, but somewhere along the way Indiana is going to catch a couple lopsided losses.
5. Thunder in 5
Sweeps are hard in the NBA. I’m giving the Pacers one game in this series, either Game 3 or 4 in Indiana, which means the Thunder will return home with a 3-1 lead in the series. Once the Thunder get to closing time, it’s over as they have won their last two series sealers — over Denver and Minnesota — by at least 30 points.
This will be a gentleman’s sweep. A slightly more humane disposal by allowing the Pacers one victory. The Thunder aren’t immune to one stinker per series. Minnesota destroyed them by 42 points in Game 3 of the conference finals. OKC won the next two to close out the series. There may been one moment during these Finals where Indiana fans talk themselves into some hope. It won’t last long.
This is no disrespect to the Pacers, who have been on a 57-win pace since Jan. 1. The Pacers aren’t swimming in the tropical Eastern Conference water anymore. They’re in the path of a tsunami.
