Two teams are left standing in the 2025 NBA playoffs: the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. The 2025 NBA Finals get started on Thursday night in Oklahoma City, and the Thunder are heavily favored to win their first title in OKC. The Pacers, however, have made a habit out of upsets in these playoffs, knocking off the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks to get here. Can they pull their biggest upset yet in the Finals and earn the franchise’s first NBA championship?
The Pacers ousted the Knicks in six games to make the Finals for the first time in 25 years. Pascal Siakam was named Eastern Conference finals MVP after averaging 24.8 points against the Knicks. Tyrese Haliburton averaged a double-double with 21 points and 10.5 assists and hit the biggest shot of the series in Game 1.
The Thunder, meanwhile, took care of the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games to win the Western Conference finals. OKC lost a Game 3 blowout, but otherwise had its way with Minnesota. The Thunder needed seven games to get past the Denver Nuggets in the second round, but are now 12-4 in the playoffs after going 68-14 in the regular season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named WCF MVP and has scored 30-plus points 11 times in his last 14 games.
Below are CBS Sports’ expert picks for the 2025 NBA Finals.
Series odds (via FanDuel): Thunder -750, Pacers +530
Botkin: Thunder in 5. The Pacers have been roughly a 57-win team since Jan. 1, so this isn’t a total underdog story. But we’re also talking about the Eastern Conference, and the path wasn’t the most difficult against the downright bad Bucks, the injured Cavs and a Knicks team that, shall we say, had to beat some pretty historic odds to pull off a pair of 20-point miracle comebacks against the Celtics, who eventually lost Jayson Tatum, to make the conference finals. Oklahoma City is another animal entirely than anything Indiana has faced. The Thunder are too deep and the defense is too much. I expect more than one 20-point win, and wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a sweep. But I’ll give the Pacers one win at home, meaning the Thunder will go back to OKC for Game 5 with a 3-1 lead. That’s closeout time.
Herbert: Thunder in 6. I could see this being quicker, but there’s something about these Pacers. I anticipate them taking (and allowing) more 3s than usual in this series, and I anticipate Rick Carlisle doing everything he can (i.e. mixing up coverages, mixing up matchups, even going zone) to keep the Thunder off-balance in the halfcourt. While I’m not going to predict that we’ll see one of the biggest Finals upsets in recent memory, I’m comfortable saying Indiana can make this interesting.
Maloney: Thunder in 6. The Thunder have thrived by overwhelming teams defensively and feasting off turnovers, but the Pacers take care of the ball extremely well. The Pacers have defied the odds at every turn because no one has had an answer for their pace, five-out approach and depth, but the Thunder welcome that style of play. This is such a fascinating matchup and should hopefully be an awesome series. While the Pacers may have a slight edge on the offensive end with their shooting, they haven’t faced a defense like the Thunder in their run through the East. In the end, the Thunder’s defensive brilliance and overall talent advantage will be the difference.
Quinn: Thunder in 5. Indiana has some things going for it in this series. The Pacers don’t turn the ball over, and the Thunder live off of turnovers defensively. They’re one of the few teams that can match the Thunder’s depth. They’re a good shooting team and Oklahoma City’s aggressive defense leaves the corners open. But the talent gap here is tremendous. Just look at what the Thunder did to Anthony Edwards. The Pacers haven’t played a defense that’s really capable of pressuring the ball yet this postseason. The Thunder do that better than any team in basketball. The Pacers did well to get here, and in most other years they’d be competitive. They won’t go down without a fight. But this series is going to be the coronation of a historically dominant team.
Ward-Henninger: Thunder in 7. Man, do I love the Pacers and the gifts they’ve given us basketball fans over the past month — but OKC is a horror movie monster lurking behind the barn door yielding a rusty chainsaw. Indiana banks on being able to tire you out over the course of games and series with its relentless pace and precision — that’s not going to happen to the deep and seemingly unrelenting Thunder roster. Tyrese Haliburton’s life is going to be a waking nightmare for the next two weeks, with waves and waves of muscles, fitness and basketball IQ being sent to destroy him. He’s good enough to beat it for even a handful of games, but not four out of seven. On the other side, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith can certainly make Shai Gilgeous-Alexander work for his buckets, but he is on one of the best playoff runs of all time and trusts himself to bounce back from a bad game or two. This is going to be such a great series as Mark Daigneault and Rick Carlisle throw curveball after curveball at each other, but I just think eventually the Thunder’s talent — and the home-court advantage they earned with a historic regular season — are enough to push them over the top.
Wimbish: Thunder in 6. The Pacers have proven everyone wrong at every turn this postseason. But they haven’t faced a team even remotely close to what the Thunder are. Playing against OKC reminds me of a scene from Black Widow where the titular character played by Scarlett Johansson fights Taskmaster for the first time and quickly finds out that she’s capable of mimicking the fight style of any opponent, making Taskmaster virtually impossible to defeat. The Thunder are Taskmaster, specifically their defense, and while I’ll give Indiana and coach Rick Carlisle enough credit to know the Pacers are capable of outsmarting OKC enough times to win a couple games in this series, I don’t think they have enough up their sleeve to win four times.
