Monday’s NBA draft lottery produced a major shocker with the Dallas Mavericks landing the No. 1 pick and a few other jumps in the projected lottery order. That shake-up should make the next six weeks leading up to the draft even more intriguing as teams pivot their strategies at the top.
While there’s still plenty of evaluating to do in the interview and pre-draft workout process, here’s the latest look at where things stand with the lottery order set and the Mavericks set to add an elite prospect in Cooper Flagg.
Jumping from outside the top 10 to the No. 1 pick is a potential franchise-changing moment for the Mavericks, paving the way for them to add a star talent in Flagg. In doing so, Dallas gets a piece that’s not only capable of helping its aging core with Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis compete in the Western Conference, but also ideally gives the Mavericks an elite long-term player who could develop into the next face of the franchise. Flagg will enter the NBA as an elite defender with positional versatility, but he showed in his lone season at Duke more on-ball scoring talent than some expected. Everyone in Dallas should be ecstatic.
Harper is a clear No. 2 on Sports Illustrated’s board and the obvious best-player-available choice here. San Antonio landing the second pick complicates things some, as the fit isn’t ideal between Harper and current foundational backcourt pieces De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. The other top prospects aren’t necessarily perfect fits either though, so for now projecting San Antonio to add the best overall asset in this slot makes sense. This scenario feels ripe for potential trade talks, though.
Philadelphia keeping this pick was the most important news from draft night, but jumping to No. 3 gives it more flexibility either with trades or in how it drafts. Edgecombe is the safer, perhaps more game-ready choice, adding an athletic, slashing guard who shot well from three in Big 12 play. A bigger swing on someone like Rutgers’s Ace Bailey and his scoring upside could make sense, too.
Two years ago, Charlotte drafted Brandon Miller, a dynamic scoring wing out of Alabama who came with questions about his ability to get to the rim. Another one could fall to them at No. 4 in Bailey, who possesses even more scoring upside than Miller thanks to his otherworldly shotmaking prowess. Bailey is by no means a finished product, but the highs with him are higher than any non-Flagg prospect in this class. Charlotte can ill afford to pass up on that type of ceiling.
Utah missing out on the higher-upside talent swings at the top of the draft is a setback, but the Jazz could swing big anyway at No. 5 with Fears, the 18-year-old who had a stellar freshman season at Oklahoma. The Jazz have already drafted a pair of young guards in Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier in recent drafts, but Fears possesses a different level of shot-creation ability both for himself and others.
The Wizards are another team that went to bed Monday likely heartbroken over the lottery results, but Johnson represents a solid consolation prize given his elite scoring upside. Johnson is wired to score, with legitimate three-level ability and an elite three-point stroke. He’d immediately inject life into this Washington offense as it likely gears up for another season of losing to make a run at the loaded top of the 2026 draft class.
The most obvious need in New Orleans is another playmaker, and Jakucionis is among the draft’s most talented ball screen operators. He won’t wow anyone athletically and struggled some with turnovers, but he’s a gifted playmaker with good size for the position and can really shoot off the bounce.
Knueppel isn’t the type of big talent swing that might make sense for Brooklyn, but he’d immediately raise the floor thanks to his shooting ability and steady presence. There’s also more upside here than his middling physical tools might let on, with a high-level feel for the game and the ability to put it on the deck and make plays.
This is a tricky pick to peg with Toronto pushing toward contention after adding Brandon Ingram at the trade deadline but also needing reinforcements at center. Drafting Maluach isn’t necessarily a win-now move, though his length at the rim gives him an avenue to contribute off the bench early on. Long-term, having Maluach and Scottie Barnes anchoring a defense would create some exciting possibilities.
There’s not an obvious fit here given how many young players Houston has already stockpiled, making this spot one to watch for potential trades. If Houston keeps the pick, its analytically savvy front office could get excited about Murray-Boyles, an undersized frontcourt player who has popped on statistical models. He’s good around the basket and has elite defensive instincts.
Portland makes some sense as a Demin destination, pairing a jumbo wing playmaker with a roster loaded with athletic scoring guards. Shooting it more consistently than he did at BYU will be a major key long-term, but the upside here will tempt someone in the late lottery or teens.
It would be a win for Chicago to see Queen drop to them, though not quite as drastic a drop as the one that saw Matas Buzelis land with them in last year’s draft. Queen’s diverse offensive skill set gives him a chance to have an excellent career and would be a nice addition to the Bulls’ young nucleus.
Traore has had a strong finish to the season in France and looks increasingly like a lottery-level prospect, with few other talents in this draft possessing his speed and ability to pressure the rim. He’d immediately plug in nicely as Trae Young’s backup and could potentially also slide in next to Young in some lineups.
The 18-year-old Essengue would be an intriguing talent swing for the Spurs, adding a versatile defender who does the little things well offensively. If you buy into his three-point shot, he’s an easy choice late in the lottery.
Riley would be the exact type of swings I’d be looking for if I were Sam Presti, a young but uber-talented shooter and scorer with upside. There are fears his frame isn’t sturdy enough to build around, but Riley’s touch is elite and worth betting on.
Scoring and playmaking in the backcourt should be a priority this offseason for Orlando as it looks to continue to ascend up the Eastern Conference standings. Richardson had a phenomenal season at Michigan State and is a hyper-efficient offensive player despite some athletic limitations.
Clifford’s stock seems to be rising after a monster close to the season at Colorado State and a strong start to the predraft process. He’s an older prospect at 23 with five years of college experience, but he should add a ton of value as a defender, passer and slasher who can make catch-and-shoot threes.
Bryant is the exact type of prospect the Wizards should be investing in with a longer-term build in mind. He’s long and athletic, showed impressive shooting flashes at Arizona and can guard multiple positions.
With four first-round picks, the Nets can afford to invest in a long-term option like Beringer. He’s among the youngest players in this class and has shown real promise as a rim protector and lob target.
Clayton came home to Florida and led the Gators to a national championship. Why not keep him in-state a bit longer? Miami could use a dynamic game-ready guard like Clayton to add to its backcourt.
I’m bullish on Fleming, who possesses elite physical tools and took big strides forward as a shooter this season at St. Joe’s. He profiles as a strong 3-and-D option and has been on an impressive development curve in recent years.
Sorber’s season at Georgetown was cut short due to injury, but in his time on the floor he was highly impressive. Atlanta needs to beef up its center spot either via the draft or free agency and with its second pick could lock up a key long-term piece like Sorber.
Newell had a highly productive season at Georgia despite being something of a tweener and is a guy who could get plugged anywhere in the late teens or 20s. Here, he fits in nicely in the Indiana frontcourt rotation.
Don’t be surprised if Oklahoma City trades or stashes this pick, but another hard-playing wing who has long been on NBA radars like Gonzalez could make sense in this spot. He shot it poorly this season, but I don’t think the shot is broken, and he adds a ton of value with his energy and motor.
Wolf’s a unique prospect as a 7-footer with legit shooting and passing chops. In general, it’s usually a safe bet for guys with high feel, positional size and floor-spacing ability to add value, though Wolf still has a lot to prove defensively.
If Saraf falls this far, the Nets would be well-positioned to stop his slide and would happily add a young backcourt talent like him. He’s an impressive ball-screen operator who can get his own shot or set up his teammates. His dominance at the FIBA U18 European Championships last summer was highly impressive.
Lendeborg may need a first-round promise to stay in the draft with a lucrative deal from Michigan on the table. Brooklyn has the flexibility to make such a promise and could use an older, versatile forward with Lendeborg’s track record of productivity.
Despite playing only seven games this season at Washington State due to injury, Coward is generating plenty of first-round buzz as teams dive deeper into his film and rapid upward trajectory from starting at a Division III school to the precipice of the NBA. He’s committed to Duke for next season, but if his stock continues to trend this way, it’d be a surprise if he returns to school.
If McNeeley’s still here at No. 29, it’d be close to a no-brainer for Phoenix. He’s a prospect that has earned plenty of praise for just his sheer competitiveness and work ethic, traits that would be welcomed in Phoenix right now. Plus, the pedigree is there for him to be one of the top three-point shooters in this draft, which makes him an easy plug-and-play rotation piece in Phoenix.
The Clippers could use plug-and-play frontcourt help, and Broome certainly qualifies. The first-team All-American and five-year college star has always found ways to produce and likely could slide into early rotation minutes at both center and power forward.
