2025 NBA Play-In Tournament picks, odds, how to watch info: Warriors try to secure playoff berth

The NBA’s expanded playoff format gets another go this week, with eight teams battling for four spots across Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. The Western Conference’s delegates are particularly interesting. Golden State is galvanized with Jimmy Butler, while Memphis, Sacramento and Dallas have all had maximum-chaos seasons. None of the four East squads finished above .500, but both Chicago and Orlando closed out strong on 7-3 runs.

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Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

Winner gets the No. 7 seed and faces No. 2 Boston in the first round.

The Hawks and Magic tangle in Tuesday’s opening action. Atlanta had pronounced struggles before the All-Star break but recalibrated to go 9-5 in March before a 4-4 April. This was a different group when versatile Jalen Johnson was healthy, but the Hawks stay competitive by playing at a quick pace (third in the NBA) and forcing turnovers. Trae Young led the NBA in assists per game (11.6) but also averaged an unsightly 4.7 turnovers. Top pick of the 2024 NBA Draft Zaccharie Risacher dropped a career-best 38 points last Thursday.

Orlando won 10 of 13 games before losing Sunday’s regular-season finale in Atlanta, where key players rested for both sides. The Magic move with the league’s second-slowest pace, setting up a style clash with their hyperactive guests. They struggle tremendously beyond the arc but compensate with the NBA’s second-ranked defense. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero can get buckets at the rim.

Head-to-head: 2-2. Atlanta won Sunday’s game and stole one in Orlando on Feb. 10, while the Magic’s two wins came off the muscle of Banchero (a 33/10/4 line last week and 36/10/5 on Feb. 20).

Playoff series: Magic won second-round matchups in 1996 and 2010, while the Hawks took a first-round series in 2011.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Winner gets the No. 7 seed and faces No. 2 Houston in the first round.

Golden State crammed three mini-campaigns into one long, strange 82-game journey. The Warriors opened hot, then collapsed to Arctic cold in an all-around awkward winter stretch, only to surge again after the Jimmy Butler blockbuster trade. The newly-fashioned big three of Butler, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are decorated playoff fixtures, surely unafraid of the moment. Butler famously dragged the 2023 Miami Heat from the play-in tourney to the NBA Finals.

The Grizzlies abruptly fired coach Taylor Jenkins with two weeks left in the regular season. Fittingly, the NBA’s fastest-paced team has to keep it moving on the fly. Their play has been inconsistent, and the vibes are not ideal. But Memphis has the top-line talent to apply pressure in this bracket. Ja Morant is rolling with the ball in his hands. Jaren Jackson Jr. is an All-Defense disruptor, and Desmond Bane nearly put up a 50/40/90 season.

Head-to-head: Golden State 3-1. The Grizz’s lone win here (144-93, not a typo) was perhaps the nadir of the Dubs’ winter blues. Golden State took November’s in-season tourney meeting and won an entertaining 134-125 meeting on April 1, in which Curry did this:

Playoff series: Warriors are 2-0 with second-round wins in 2015 and 2022.

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Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls

Winner plays at the Atlanta at Orlando loser for the No. 8 seed.

On the other side of the seismic Jimmy Butler trade is a Miami team that lost 10 straight games in March, then won six in a row (including a triumph over Boston and a revenge win at home against the Warriors). Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins can all give 20-point efforts, and Davion Mitchell, Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson offer rangy backcourt energy off the bench.

Chicago seems to be in this spot every spring. It was the ninth seed last year and the 10th seed in 2023. This year’s Bulls come in with some punch to them, going 9-6 in March and then 6-1 in April. Josh Giddey arrives on an extended heat-check, and if nothing else, he delivered this indelible moment:

Elsewhere, Chicago-born rookie Matas Buzelis has shown swagger on his deep shot, and Coby White quietly grinded to his first 20 points-per-game season. It was so far from flashy, but these Bulls ended up second in pace, third in 3s made and first in defensive rebounding.

Head-to-head: Chicago 3-0. They beat the Heat in February, March and April, each time by single-digit margins.

Playoff series: A narrow 4-3 lead for the Bulls. Miami won in 2011 and 2013 during the “Heatles” era and began their 2006 title run by beating Chicago in the first round. The Jordan-Pippen dynasty notched opening-round sweeps in 1992 and 1996, then took the ‘97 conference finals in five games. The Bulls also swept a first-round series in 2007.

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Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings

Winner plays at the Memphis at Golden State loser for the No. 8 seed.

The Mavs marched to the NBA Finals last year but drew the No. 10 seed in this week’s play-in. Then again, they had Luka Doncic in last year’s playoffs, and they don’t have him now.

It’s been a surreal and nightmarish few months, featuring fake funerals and one never-ending “fire Nico” chant. But the Mavericks have a shot on Wednesday, so long as Anthony Davis is available and locked in. Davis averaged 20 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and more than two blocks in nine Dallas dispatches.

Sacramento made its own deadline deal, sending out mainstay De’Aaron Fox and bringing in Zach LaVine, who shot 51/44.6/87.4 in 32 tries as a King. Points were not a problem (seventh in offensive rating, 10th in total scoring), but the D was mostly a liability (23rd in defensive rating, 25th in effective shooting).

A versatile center, Domantas Sabonis is a lot of fun to watch. The cowbells will be rattling as the hosts try for their second playoff berth since 2006.

Perhaps it wasn’t quite Dallas-level, but Sacramento still had a turbulent run. Doug Christie seeks his first-ever playoff win after going 27-24 as interim coach.

Head-to-head: Sacramento 3-0, headlined by a 129-28 overtime thriller on Feb. 10. DeMar DeRozan was the difference-maker with 42 points and just one turnover.

Playoff series: These teams have met in the playoffs three times, in consecutive years from 2002-04. They split second-round series in ‘02 and ‘03, and the Kings won in the first round in 2004. Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavs won the 2003 West semis in seven games; Chris Webber’s Kings won the other two in five.

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(Top photo of Jimmy Butler: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

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