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In each of the past two NBA playoffs, at least two lower seeds have won a first-round series, including four in 2023.
With depth and parity creeping into the NBA competitive paradigm, is the league in store for more unpredictability?
The Golden State Warriors are an atypical No. 7 seed, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are a No. 6 seed who made the Western Conference finals last season. The Milwaukee Bucks are the five seed but still have championship components, and the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons beat the Knicks three times this season, including twice at Madison Square Garden.
Here are first-round NBA playoff predictions from USA TODAY Sports NBA staff writers and editors:
NBA first-round playoff predictions
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Cleveland vs. No. 8 Atlanta or Miami or Chicago
Noteworthy: The Cavaliers posted the NBA’s top offensive rating, scoring 121.0 points per 100 possessions en route to winning 64 games, most since the 2008-09 season, when they won 66.
Cavaliers-No. 8 predictions
- Lorenzo Reyes: Cavaliers
- Heather Tucker: Cavaliers
- Jeff Zillgitt: Cavaliers
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
Noteworthy: The Magic actually won the season series, 2-1, though All-Star forward Jayson Tatum missed both Boston losses. One of those defeats came in the antepenultimate game of the regular season, when the Celtics sat Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis — their entire starting unit.
Celtics-Magic predictions
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Detroit Pistons
Noteworthy: No lineup played more minutes (940) than New York’s starting five of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. The Pistons saw a 30-win improvement from last season, the sixth-best turnaround in NBA history.
Knicks-Pistons predictions
- Lorenzo Reyes: Knicks in five
- Heather Tucker: Knicks in six
- Jeff Zillgitt: Knicks in six
No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks
Noteworthy: Bucks guard Damian Lillard’s availability (deep vein thrombosis) is up in the air, and he’ll be essential to Milwaukee’s chances: no duo in the NBA scored more points than Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who combined for 55.3 points per game. The Pacers won 50 games for the first time since 2013-14 and went 34-14 (.708) since Jan. 1.
Pacers-Bucks predictions
- Lorenzo Reyes: Bucks in seven
- Heather Tucker: Bucks in six
- Jeff Zillgitt: Pacers in seven
Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No 8 Memphis or Sacramento or Dallas
Noteworthy: The Thunder were the only team to finish in the top three in offensive (third) and defensive rating (first) and had the league’s best net rating at plus-12.7 points per 100 possessions – the second-best net rating in NBA history.
Thunder-No. 8 seed predictions
- Lorenzo Reyes: Thunder
- Heather Tucker: Thunder
- Jeff Zillgitt: Thunder
No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors
Noteworthy: Golden State won the seasons series 3-2, outscoring Houston 517-509, and the Rockets held the Warriors to less than 100 points in three of the five games.
Rockets-Warriors predictions
- Lorenzo Reyes: Rockets in five
- Heather Tucker: Rockets in six
- Jeff Zillgitt: Warriors in seven
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Noteworthy: The teams split the four-game seasons series – each winning twice at home. However, Luka Doncic was with the Lakers for only the final game, a 111-102 Lakers win on Feb. 27, with LeBron James and Doncic combining for 54 points, 20 rebounds and 11 assists.
Lakers-Timberwolves predictions
- Lorenzo Reyes: Lakers in seven
- Heather Tucker: Lakers in five
- Jeff Zillgitt: Lakers in seven
Noteworthy: The Nuggets and the Clippers each won two games in the season series, but they haven’t played since Jan. 8. Norman Powell torched the Nuggets, averaging 27.8 points in four games on 48.7% shooting on 3-pointers.
Nuggets-Clippers predictions
- Lorenzo Reyes: Clippers in five
- Heather Tucker: Nuggets in six
- Jeff Zillgitt: Clippers in six
