When you’re betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you’ve got to weight a healthy number of factors — from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.
After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today’s action?
We’re going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.
Today’s Best MLB Betting Picks
Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles
Guardians Under 4.5 Runs (-132)
The Cleveland Guardians are averaging the ninth-fewest runs per game (3.88) while the Baltimore Orioles are giving up the ninth-most runs per contest (4.65). Something has to give in Thursday’s matchup.
Cleveland gets a favorable matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano — who has a 5.70 SIERA and 5.52 xFIP through three starts. Sugano features an array of pitches, including his splitter (21.3%), cutter (17.9%), four-seam fastball (17.0%), and sinker (15.7%). The Guardians are in the bottom half of runs above average against splitters and sinkers, potentially giving Sugano a path to success.
Additionally, Sugano has still managed to carry a 3.86 ERA while giving up two or fewer runs in two of three starts. The O’s also have a solid bullpen thus far, a group which has the eighth-lowest ERA (3.29) while touting a 3.95 xFIP.
Cleveland has mainly leaned on power hitting for run production, holding the ninth-highest home run percentage. But Baltimore is giving up the 12th-lowest home run rate. MasseyRatings‘ projections have the Guardians reaching only three runs.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Tigers Over 4.5 Runs (+116)
The Detroit Tigers‘ batting order has impressed in the early going with the 10th-most runs per game (4.50), which is right at their 4.5-run total against the Kansas City Royals.
Michael Lorenzen continues to provide solid pitching for the Royals, touting a 3.71 SIERA and 3.58 xFIP over three starts. However, I have some concerns for Lorenzen in this matchup.
First off, Detroit boasts the 12th-highest slugging percentage and 10th-highest isolated power. Lorenzen is in the 46th percentile of average exit velocity allowed, 40th percentile of barrel rate allowed, and 33rd percentile of hard-hit percentage surrendered.
Additionally, the Tigers are in the top 13 of runs above average against four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and cutters — which make up three of Lorenzen’s most-used pitches. Kansas City’s bullpen probably won’t provide much relief, either, as it is 16th in ERA (3.68) and 17th in xFIP (3.98).
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Cardinals Moneyline (+116)
With the St. Louis Cardinals sitting at 3-1 over their last four, we have a good opportunity to take them as a road underdog against the New York Mets.
Andre Pallante has been excellent through three starts with a 2.20 ERA, 3.61 SIERA, and 3.49 xFIP. In comparison, New York’s Griffin Canning holds a 4.20 ERA, 4.50 SIERA, and 4.12 in three starts.
St. Louis’ advantages continue with Pallante on the mound. This includes the Mets ranking 21st with a .299 batting average against right-handed pitching. New York also ranks 19th in runs above average against four-seam fastballs and sliders — two of Pallante’s most-used pitches.
Following a seven-inning outing from Pallante, the Cardinals could get another excellent start from the fourth-year pro.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
