Homecourt advantage has meant nothing towards determining the winner in the New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers series, as the road team has won every contest entering Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET. The Pacers will try to change that in Indiana in Game 4, and if they do, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam will likely be two integral reasons why. Since making his epic last-second 3-pointer to force overtime in a Game 1 Pacers victory, Haliburton has scored 20 points or fewer in back-to-back games, yet his total points over/under is 21.5 points on betting sites, and the SportsLine model likes that trend to continue in its Tuesday NBA props. Meanwhile, it expects Siakam to perform better than the sportsbooks’ expectations as players like Siakam, Haliburton, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns will be popular pieces of a Knicks vs. Pacers same-game parlay at online sports betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Knicks vs. Pacers Game 4 NBA props:
- Pascal Siakam Over 29.5 steals + blocks (-104)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 21.5 points (-105)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 assists (+110)
Pascal Siakam Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-104)
Oh locked this play in at Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists as Siakam’s over/under has moved four full points since then. Siakam is averaging 24.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists for a 32.7 PRA total this season, so it’s no surprise the number has moved so much. Oh loved Siakam at Over 25.5, but the model still projects value at 29.5 as Siakam is projected a PRA total of 33.9 at home in Game 4. Oh likes a bounce-back performance for Game 4 after a down Game 3, similar to his Game 2 performance after Game 1. FanDuel is offering this at -104 odds, while other sportsbooks have juiced the price to -115 or more. The number could climb even higher, and signing up with a FanDuel promo code gets you $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
“A key to every relationship is getting to know what makes the other person tick and when they are going to be up or down,” Oh said. “In this betting relationship we have with Siakam, we want to time his downs with Unders and his ups with Overs. He followed his Game 1 down (17 points) with a dominating Game 2 up (39 points). He came back down in Game 3 with just 17 points on just 14 FGAs.”
Tyrese Haliburton Under 21.5 points (-105)
Regardless of this series’ result, Knicks vs. Pacers in the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals will likely be best remembered by Haliburton re-creating the iconic choke sign at Madison Square Garden in homage to Reggie Miller, who was on call for the game, on what he thought was a game-winning 3-pointer. Upon review, it was a tying 3-pointer and he finished the game with 31 points, but he’s failed to score at least 22 points in the ensuing two contests. He’s only gone Over this scoring total in one of six home games this postseason, and the model projects him for 20.3 points on Tuesday to finish below it yet again.
The 25-year-old point guard averaged 18.6 points per game this season and is averaging 18.5 ppg this postseason. Even though Haliburton is perceived as the Pacers’ best player. Indiana isn’t a team to be overly reliant on one player. With Haliburton shooting below 43% from the field in four of six home games this postseason, the model projects him to create for others more than himself on Tuesday. A Caesars Sportsbook promo code for new users or anyone with an account already can make this play at -104 odds, the best odds currently available on the market.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 assists (+110)
Towns reminded the NBA community how dominant he can be in arguably the most important quarter of the Knicks’ season. Towns had 20 points in the fourth quarter of New York’s comeback victory on Sunday. He also had an assist in that final period when he could seemingly do no wrong and the Knicks will need another performance like that from Towns to take another road victory and even the series. Towns had two assists in Game 1, and he averaged 3.1 assists per game this season, as he isn’t a score-only threat with the ball in his hands.
Towns has recorded at least two assists in 10 of his last 17 road games against teams ranked in the middle-third in the NBA in team defense and the Pacers ranked 17th at 114.9 ppg allowed this season. bet365 is offering this play at +110 odds while some betting apps have moved it to minus-money odds, and new users can take advantage of a bet365 bonus code and get $150 in free bets with a $5 bet.
