The Oklahoma City Thunder are one victory away from advancing to their first Western Conference Finals since 2016. The Thunder (-4.5, 216) will attempt to close the series on the road against the Denver Nuggets at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday with a 3-2 series lead. The Thunder are coming off back-to-back victories, most recently defeating the Nuggets, 112-105, on Tuesday after outscoring Denver by 15 points in the fourth quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 points for Oklahoma City and his over/under for total points is 30.5 in Thursday NBA player props. Nikola Jokic had 44 points for the Nuggets and his odds to post a triple-double are +210 on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday NBA props. These two superstars could also be a popular piece of same-game parlays on betting apps.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 0.5 assists (-150)
The model projects Porter at 1.2 assists for Thursday, giving him an 80% chance at hitting the Over, which is better than the implied odds at this price. Porter had two assists on Tuesday and averaged 2.1 assists per game during the regular season. Although he’s had no assists in five of his last seven games, Oh views this as a buy-low opportunity based on his expected higher playing time in a must-win contest and given his regular season statistics. Porter averaged 2.0 assists per game at home during the regular season and has at least one assist in 34 of 43 home games (79.1%). bet365 offers the best odds at -150.
“When you combine his ice cold shooting with Denver’s short rotation, you have a player who has to play 25+ minutes but may look to be more of a decoy,” Oh said,” and instead of shooting a three like normal, he’ll pass it off to someone who isn’t struggling so much or playing with a bum shoulder.”
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 rebounds (-110)
Hartenstein has gone Under this total in three of five games this series, including having just seven rebounds on Tuesday. He draws the near-impossible task of trying to contain Nikola Jokic, one of the most dominant offensive players in NBA history, which can lead to foul trouble to limit his minutes. The 27-year-old has played fewer than 30 minutes twice and never more than 33 minutes in a game this series, often due to foul trouble. The Nuggets face a must-win scenario on Thursday and after having 44 points on Tuesday, the model projects another aggressive approach from Jokic.
Hartenstein averaged nine rebounds during two regular season games against Denver as well as it’s been a challenge for him to dominate on the glass against Jokic like he has against the majority of the league. He’s finished Under his total rebounds number in 14 of his last 25 games against teams with a winning record, averaging 9.2 rebounds per game in those contests. The model projects him for 7.9 rebounds on Thursday. BetMGM is offering this at -110 odds while the majority of other sportsbooks have juiced his Under to -120 or higher.
Alex Caruso Over 2.5 assists (+145)
Caruso had exactly two assists in three straight games, but given his odds, the model sees value in playing him to record just one more assist than he has in recent contests on Thursday. The model projects Caruso at 2.5 assists in Game 6 with the Thunder attempting to close out the Nuggets and advance to their first conference finals in nearly 10 years. The 31-year-old guard averaged 3.8 assists per game in the previous series against the Grizzlies, going Over this total in all four contests.
He had gone Over this number in three of his last five road games, averaging 4.0 assists per game over that span. The Nuggets allowed the 27th-most assists (28.6 per game) during the regular season and this could be a strong plus-money play for Thursday. BetMGM is offering the best odds at +145.
