It’s no surprise that the Oklahoma City Thunder offense moves through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday, Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 2-of-13 from the field in the first half, which resulted in just 44 total points for the Thunder and a four-point halftime deficit. In the second half, SGA dominated with 20 points as Oklahoma City pulled away to a 114-88 Game 1 win. The Western Conference Finals continue on Thursday with the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 2 at 8:30 p.m. ET. Gilgeous-Alexander has a total points over/under of 31.5 in Thursday NBA player props and whether it’s his points, rebounds, assists or steals, he’ll be a popular option on betting apps in Thursday NBA props bets. SportsLine’s model is also back on the SGA bandwagon, this time with a plus-money bet, for a Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay at online betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 2 NBA props:
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 2.5 assists (+120)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 assists (+114)
- Donte DiVincenzo Under 15.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 2.5 assists (+120)
Hartenstein didn’t record an assist in Game 1, but he was effective offensively with 12 points over 20 minutes and the 7-foot center created assist opportunities, only his teammates failed to connect on open looks. He shot 6 of 8 from the field by scoring near the basket, and Oh believes that scoring will create assist opportunities in Game 2. The 27-year-old averaged 3.8 assists per game during the regular season, and the model projects him at 2.9 assists for Thursday, which results in a strong plus-money opportunity for Thursday.
“That scoring success is likely to draw more defensive attention in Game 2, opening up passing lanes,” Oh said. “Hartenstein is a capable facilitator when defenses try to get in his face, and we expect him to generate at least five assist opportunities. … The over has hit in 48 of 70 games this season, and after four straight unders with just three total assists, he’s due for a bounce-back.” DraftKings Sportsbook is currently offering the best odds at +120, and signing up using a DraftKings promo code can limit your risk on a first wager.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 assists (+114)
Gilgeous-Alexander is a capable creator for others, but scoring and finishing himself is truly where he excels after leading the NBA at 32.7 points per game this season. The 26-year-old takes the court for the first time since officially winning the NBA MVP Award, and the score-first point guard may look to put together another epic scoring performance worthy of that honor. SGA had nine assists in Game 1, but he finished Under this total in the final two games against Denver and averaged 6.4 assists per game over the first two rounds of the playoffs.
The model projects Gilgeous-Alexander for 6.1 assists and he averaged 6.4 assists per game during the regular season. His year-long averages put him right around the 6.5 over/under total, but given the chance to play this at plus-money after finishing below this assist total in three of his first five home playoff games, the model sees value here. FanDuel is offering the best odds at +114, and new users can take advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code.
Donte DiVincenzo Under 15.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
DiVincenzo is coming off a rough shooting performance where he shot 3 of 14, including 3 of 12 from beyond the arc, and was largely a non-factor offensively with nine points, one rebound and two assists in Game 1. He’s averaging just 8.1 points per game this postseason on 31.7% shooting, including shooting 33.3% or worse in nine of 11 postseason games. The model expects his shooting woes to continue, projecting him for 6.8 points on Thursday with a PRA total of 11.1.
The Thunder had the No. 3 scoring defense in the league this season and held the Timberwolves to just 88 points in Game 1. Given the 28-year-old guard’s struggles against even the Lakers and Warriors in the first two rounds, the model doesn’t project much confidence in him to turn that around on Thursday. A bet365 bonus code for new users or anyone with an account already can make this play at -105 odds, the best odds currently available on the market.
