Homecourt advantage hasn’t meant much in the Eastern Conference. In the Western Conference Finals, it’s made plenty of difference as the Minnesota Timberwolves prepare to host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 on Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Timberwolves won Game 3 at home by 42 points to cut Oklahoma City’s series lead to 2-1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had just 14 points over 28 minutes in the lopsided Game 3 loss, so should you expect a bounce-back performance from SGA when playing Monday NBA player props on betting sites? Our model is eyeing SGA’s three-point prop. Anthony Edwards had 30 points and Julius Randle added 24 points in Game 3 and, along with Gilgeous-Alexander, could be popular pieces of a Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay for online sports betting. You can also check out our Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 NBA props:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-114)
- Julius Randle Over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
- Cason Wallace Under 11.5 points + rebounds + assists (-104)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-114)
Gilgeous-Alexander is a professional scorer in every aspect of the game and even though he scored just 14 points over 28 minutes on Saturday, he still made two 3-pointers. The NBA MVP has made multiple 3-pointers in three of his last five playoff games. He averaged 2.0 3-pointers per game during the regular season and the model projects him for 1.7 triples on Monday. His Over is 55-36 (60.4%) this season, and Oh expects all the conversations around SGA drawing fouls and being labeled a “foul merchant” could have an impact on Monday, especially on the road. FanDuel is currently offering the best odds at -114, and signing up using a FanDuel promo code earns you $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
“With recent chatter about him drawing too many fouls, he may look to shoot more threes to create space and reduce reliance on foul calls,” Oh said. “In playoff games where he didn’t attempt 10+ free throws, he’s taken 48 threes across eight games—an encouraging volume. With a projected 33% shooting rate from deep and 6+ attempts, he has a solid chance to clear this line.”
Julius Randle Over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Randle has gone Over this total in eight of his last 10 postseason games, averaging a 34.7 PRA total over that span. He had 24 points, four rebounds and three assists in Game 3 to go Over this total despite playing just 30 minutes in Minnesota’s lopsided victory. The 30-year-old went Over this total in Game 1 as well before an awful Game 2 performance, but he put that behind him with an effective Saturday night contest.
The Timberwolves faced a near must-win in Game 3 and they’ll need to come out with a similar mindset to take Game 4. Oklahoma City is 42-7 at home this year, including 7-1 in the playoffs, so the Timberwolves will have a challenging time stealing two games on the road to take the series, and the model projects a highly encouraged effort and performance from Randle in a crucial Game 4. Randle is averaging 22.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists (33.8 PRA) total this postseason and he averaged a 30.6 PRA total at home during the regular season despite often playing fewer minutes than his postseason average. bet365 is currently offering the best odds at -115, and signing up using a bet365 bonus code earns you $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager.
Cason Wallace Under 11.5 points + rebounds + assists (-104)
Wallace has gone Under this total in three of his last five road games, averaging an 11.2 PRA total over that span. He’s averaging 4.3 points, 2.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists (10.3) this series. Wallace didn’t attempt a shot over his 16 minutes in Game 3, which is concerning, and finished with two points, one rebound and one assist.
The Thunder rather evenly spread out their playing time from the bench players in Game 3 of the one-sided affair, whereas Wallace played at least 28 minutes in each of the first two games of the series in reserve. There have been plenty of postseason series in the past where homecourt advantage dominates and leads to non-competitive games throughout. Given how strong Minnesota was on Saturday, there’s always the chance of that happening again and Wallace playing fewer minutes. Conversely, if Oklahoma City is competitive, its starters are better rested and could play more minutes as SGA was the only person who played more than 25 minutes in Game 3. FanDuel is offereing the best odds, and a FanDuel promo code can give you more bonus funds to play with in other postseason contests.
