Despite coming off a 16-point loss in Game 2, the Indiana Pacers can’t be upset about returning to Indiana after a split in their first two games of the 2025 NBA Finals against a heavily-favored Thunder team. Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton had 17 points in Game 2, but he was a more dominant scorer at home than on the road in the previous series, averaging 24.3 points in Indiana compared to 17.7 in New York in the Eastern Conference Finals. Our NBA model expects Haliburton to be at his best at home again in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET and go Over multiple NBA player props on online betting sites. OKC is a 5.5-point favorite and the total is 228.5 in the latest Thunder vs. Pacers odds.
The model projects strong value in playing Haliburton’s Over total points of 17.5 points for Wednesday. This series features two emerging top NBA point guards, Haliburton and the 2025 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and both could be popular pieces of a Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay. Especially in front of his home fans, the model expects Haliburton to show he can keep up with the NBA MVP winner.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 NBA props (odds subject to change):
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (-106)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 rebounds (+100)
- Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 assists (+134)
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (-106)
Haliburton was a force in Indiana against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, averaging 24.3 points and 11.7 assists in Indiana compared to 17.7 points and 9.3 assists per game on the road. The 25-year-old guard had 21 points and 13 assists in Indiana’s series-clincher against New York in Game 6 at home, and he went Over this total in each of his three home games in New York and in five of his last seven home postseason contests.
The fifth-year guard averaged 20.2 points at home during the regular season. There has been a lot of chatter around his father, John Haliburton, being banned from games the majority of the postseason following his on-court incident with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Haliburton was elite with him back in the building in Game 6 against New York. “Haliburton is only 22-24 Over this line on the road (just 14 and 17 points in Games 1 and 2), but he is a very solid 26-19 at home with a 19.8 average,” Oh noted. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Haliburton Over 17.5 total points at -106 odds while other betting apps have juced the price, and a FanDuel promo code gives new users $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 rebounds (+100)
Hartenstein has gone Over this total in each of the first two games this series as he’s averaging 8.5 rebounds per game against Indiana after posting just 6.0 rebounds per game against Minnesota. But this version of the 7-foot center better resembles what NBA fans have witnessed all season, as Hartenstein averaged 10.7 rebounds per game during the regular season. He’s not scoring as much, averaging 6.0 points per game this series, but Hartenstein played 22 minutes in a Game 2 win compared to 17 minutes in a Game 1 loss. Oklahoma City could want him on the floor more in Game 3 as well.
The 27-year-old is averaging 8.4 rebounds per game on the road this season and 7.9 rebounds per game overall in the playoffs. Even though his minutes have decreased during the postseason from 27.9 minutes per game in the regular season to 23.5 over the playoffs, Hartenstein has been impactful on the floor. His size is crucial against Indiana bigs like Siakam and Myles Turner as well. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering this play at +100 odds, and a DraftKings promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 assists (+134)
Siakam had four assists in just 30 minutes in Game 2 in a contest Indiana lost control of during the first half. After the Pacers stole Game 1 on the road with an incredible comeback, it’s no surprise the Thunder came out with a dominant Game 2 result to salvage a split in the series at home. But a return to Indiana should bode well for the Pacers, who averaged 127.5 points in their final two home games against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, providing plenty of assist opportunities for Siakam and the entire offense. Siakam averaged 36 minutes per game against the Knicks, and that’s more of the workload expected in a more competitive contest.
The three-time All-Star has gone Over his assist total in nine of his last 10 games as an underdog, averaging 4.0 assists per game in those contests. He averaged 3.4 assists per game during the regular season and is averaging 3.3 assists per game during the playoffs. The model projects Siakam at 3.9 assists in Game 3, making this a strong plus-money play for Game 3 NBA Finals player props. FanDuel is also offering the best odds on this play, while other sportsbooks have this priced around +110 odds.
Want more NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA props for Pacers vs. Thunder on Wednesday in Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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You can also see Wednesday’s top NBA picks from expert Jason La Canfora, who’s on a sizzling 112-81-1 (+2175.5) roll over his last 194 NBA picks. He already has a side locked in for Game 3. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for Game 3, all from an expert who’s up over 21 units.
