What a blind résumé test can tell us about the Cleveland Guardians

CLEVELAND — April baseball is intended to mislead you.

Fortune has a greater influence on a smaller sample. And that’s what we have thus far — through about 10 percent of the regular season. A lot can change in a day, a series or a week. Look no further than the Cleveland Guardians, who came into Tuesday’s home opener at 3-6 and finished this week at 8-7.

To get a better sense of what might be fact and what might be fiction, let’s use a blind résumé test and see what we learn.

Player A

Exit velocity: 92nd percentile
Bat speed: 79th percentile
Hard-hit rate: 94th percentile
Walk rate: 85th percentile
Chase rate: 78th percentile

Initial reaction: Whoa, what an unstoppable slugger.

Actual stats: .143/.268/.229 slash line, no homers, six walks, 16 strikeouts in 41 plate appearances.

New reaction: Whoa, which baseball deity did this guy irk?

The player: Nolan Jones

Not only are those metrics encouraging, but they’re actually better than the ones from his rookie season in 2023, when he finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting (and might have finished higher had he not spent the first two months at Triple A). 

We can’t ignore the strikeout rate (4th percentile) and whiff rate (14th percentile), of course, but those are part of the package. Jones will walk a lot, strike out a lot and hit for a bunch of power. That last element hasn’t materialized yet this season, but if he maintains those inputs, he should eventually be rewarded, especially since he says he feels exponentially better, physically and mentally, than he did during a rotten, Murphy’s Law-backed last season.

Player B

Exit velocity: 26th percentile
Whiff rate: 1st percentile
Walk rate: 48th percentile
Strikeout rate: 25th percentile

Initial reaction: That’s not very inspiring.

But, hang on a second …

Bat speed: 95th percentile
Hard-hit rate: 66th percentile
Expected slugging percentage: 76th percentile

Actual stats: .267/.333/.489 slash line, three homers, four walks, 15 strikeouts in 51 plate appearances.

New reaction: Hmm, fascinating.

The player: Gabriel Arias

Obviously, the question here is whether his production is sustainable. But when the hits are opposite-field blasts instead of softly struck singles — and when it comes with quality, versatile defense — it buys him more time to prove himself.

His power is special. Arias’ whiff rate is what fuels the skepticism, and his ground-ball rate (70 percent) needs to drop dramatically. (His career rate is 55.5 percent, and the league average is 44.4 percent. If he’s going to whack fastballs, it’s better to whack them in the air.)

Arias has feasted on fastballs this season, but to keep receiving a steady diet of them, he’ll either need to demonstrate the plate discipline to resist breaking balls out of the zone or exhibit the contact ability to spoil those offerings until the pitcher resorts to the heater.

We’ll see if he can keep this up, but as long as he keeps his OPS around .800, no one’s going to ask questions.

Player C

Expected slugging percentage: 86th percentile
Walk rate: 93rd percentile
Chase rate: 87th percentile

Initial reaction: All-Star season incoming.

Actual stats: .196/.339/.522 slash line, four homers, 10 walks, 15 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances.

New reaction: It’s all there for him to be a middle-of-the-order slugger.

The player: Kyle Manzardo

This is the profile of one of the top sluggers in the league, a guy who’s selective enough to force pitchers to come into the zone and make them pay once they oblige.

Last season, he fell in the middle of the pack in most metrics. This year, he’s among the league leaders in several categories that typically translate to flashy numbers. He has had no trouble with lefties and has nearly tripled his walk rate from last year as he bids to become a complete, everyday option.

Those improvements should serve him well in the long run.

Kyle Manzardo has drawn more walks (10) in 15 games this year than he did in 53 games last season (nine). (Luke Hales / Getty Images)

Player D

Opponent hard-hit rate: 83rd percentile
Opponent chase rate: 77th percentile
Opponent strikeout rate: 64th percentile
Average fastball velocity: 96.8 mph

Initial reaction: This looks like the profile of a No. 2 starter.

Actual stats: 3.46 ERA, 13 innings, 14 strikeouts.

New reaction: The ingredients are there for the breakout season so many have envisioned.

The player: Gavin Williams

If there’s a critique to toss Williams’ way, it’s that he needed 75 pitches to labor through three innings in Anaheim and another 94 to complete five (strong) innings against the White Sox.

The 6-foot-6, 250-pounder is built like someone who could log 200 innings without breaking a sweat. To do that, and to spare his bullpen, he’ll need to be more efficient. Other than that, he seems poised to piece together his first full, productive big-league season.

Player E

Opponent strikeout rate: 45th percentile
Opponent whiff rate: 60th percentile
Opponent average exit velocity: 14th percentile
Opponent chase rate: 37th percentile

Initial reaction: This guy seems bound for the back of a rotation.

Actual stats: 16 1/3 innings, 17 hits, 11 earned runs, six walks, 15 strikeouts, 6.06 ERA.

Actual stats, minus his first start: 11 2/3 innings, two walks, 13 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA.

New reaction: You have my attention.

The player: Luis Ortiz

Ortiz’s first three starts, respectively, could be classified as ugly, satisfactory and excellent. He’s offered a wide-ranging view of The Luis Ortiz Experience in a span of a couple of weeks.

In his first outing in San Diego, he struck out two. Against the Kansas City Royals on Saturday, he piled up a career-high 10 strikeouts and jumped from the 6th percentile to the 45th percentile in strikeout rate.

Manager Stephen Vogt has said the key for Ortiz is throwing strikes consistently enough so that his array of heaters — a fastball, cutter and sinker, each with a different movement profile — befuddles hitters. On Saturday, the Royals offered at 17 of his four-seamers and whiffed on eight of those swings.

“Get in the strike zone,” Vogt said, “and make the hitters make a late decision.”

Player F

Opponent chase rate: 96th percentile
Opponent walk rate: 94th percentile
Opponent whiff rate: 82nd percentile
Average cutter velocity: 98.9 mph

Initial reaction: Clearly, no hitter ever touches this guy.

Actual stats: seven innings, 14 hits, six earned runs, one walk, seven strikeouts.

New reaction: Something doesn’t add up here.

The player: Emmanuel Clase

The stuff still can be elite. This is a matter of hitting his spots and doing so in a less predictable manner. If a hitter can gear up for a 99 mph cutter in the zone, knowing he’s likely to see that pitch — and see it over the plate — he can hit it.

In the past, hitters were so paranoid about the cutter that it left them vulnerable on the slider, which resembled the cutter until it’s too late to adjust. This year, Clase hasn’t had a great feel for the slider, and hitters haven’t had much trouble differentiating between the two.

Clase has already allowed more earned runs (six) than he did the entire 2024 regular season (five). He has built a career on inducing weak contact, but he’s surrendering a ton of sharply struck pulled base hits. Hitters aren’t late on the cutter anymore. They’re ready for it because they know it’s coming, and Clase is catching too much of the plate with it.

“When you’re perfect for a whole season last year and then you have a couple games where you give up runs,” Vogt said, “all of a sudden now people are asking about you.”

Clase certainly isn’t running from the spotlight. On Saturday, when the Guardians were threatening to score in the eighth inning and erase a save opportunity for their closer, the coaches dialed the bullpen phone to ask if Clase still wanted the work. He didn’t hesitate, even though the ninth inning proved to be another struggle for him — he gave up two runs.

“He can’t wait to get back out there,” Vogt said. “It’s going to help.”

(Top photo of Gabriel Arias: Nick Cammett / Getty Images)

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