The Chicago Cubs were already seen as a team who could be involved in the trade market for pitching both in the bullpen and the starting rotation, but the urgency has just increased immensely to get something done.
In the midst of what has been a very strong start for the Cubs with a record of 11-7 and an offense which looks capable of carrying this team to real contention in the National League, a devastating update was announced over the weekend.
With left-hander Justin Steele headed for season-ending surgery on his elbow, Chicago’s already shaky rotation loses one of its top two arms and puts the Cubs squarely in the category of a team who may not have the pitching to make any real noise leading up to October.
Chicago was expected this offseason to go after some of the big fish in free agency in terms of starting pitching to complete the rotation, and had they done that they would likely be just fine even without Steele.
However as it turned out they were not serious contenders for any of the top names on the market and alas find themselves in this situation.
Immediately upon the news of Steele being lost for the year, the focus from both fans and media alike shifted to Miami Marlins superstar ace Sandy Alcantara.
Immediately after the Steele prognosis was released, noted MLB insider Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted out something to the effect speculating Alcantara is at the top of the Cubs list in their search for a replacement.
Not to mention fans immediate clamoring for Chicago to make the move for a pitcher in Alcantara who is one of the best in the game and someone every team in baseball wants to trade for.
But what would it actually take for the Cubs to get him?
After an offseason of rumors surrounding the right-hander, Alcantara remained in Miami, likely in no small part due to the Marlins not getting an offer that suited their wishes over the offseason.
There’s no urgency on Miami’s part and there really shouldn’t be.
Though they are one of the worst teams in baseball and trading away their ace will net them a massive return, perhaps the most intriguing part of the 29-year-old for potential trade partners is the fact that he’s under team control at an affordable number for the next three years.
This is not a case of Alcantara being an impending free agent and they should get something for him while they can. In fact, Miami would be perfectly content holding onto a superstar who makes less than $20 million each of the next two years before a still beyond reasonable $21 million club option in 2027.
In short, if the Marlins are going to get rid of him — something which ultimately feels inevitable — it’s going to take a haul.
The good news there for Chicago is that no team in baseball is better positioned to put together the kind of package for Miami to be convinced to trade away the ace than the Cubs are.
A farm system which is one of the best in the sport combined with a crippling need to capitalize on a limited window, Alcantara to Chicago makes too much sense.
In looking at a possible return, the conversation begins with Owen Caissie. The No. 3 prospect in the organization is trying to crack an already young and talented outfield — a unit that is even more locked up if the Cubs accomplish the goal of signing Kyle Tucker to a long-term deal.
At a certain point, while it’s nice to hold onto a rich pool of prospects there just is not room for everybody.
Presumably, Chicago would not entertain putting third baseman Matt Shaw (No. 1) or right-handed pitcher Cade Horton (No. 2) in the deal, but there are other options to play with.
By all accounts, the Cubs are in love with outfielder Kevin Alcantara (No. 6) and may not be inclined to do an Alcantara for Alcantara swap.
Moisés Ballesteros (No. 4) may be more likely to be someone Chicago is willing to entertain moving, packaging two elite prospects in Caissie and Ballesteros at the center of the deal.
It would also likely take an established Major League player to seal the deal, which is where someone like either a Seiya Suzuki or Nico Hoerner comes into play.
Both players are under contract through the 2026 season and Hoerner’s days at second at Wrigley Field could be numbered regardless with James Triantos coming up the pipeline.
Between these two examples, Hoerner would be preferred given the aforementioned Triantos plus the hot start for Suzuki and the ability of someone like Justin Turner or Jon Berti — likely a combination of both — to hold down the keystone.
If they can get the Marlins to bite, a deal sending Alcantara to the Windy City to be the face of the Cubs rotation for years to come in exchange for Hoerner, Ballesteros and Caissie could make a lot of sense for both sides.
It’s no small return from Chicago, but this is the price of bringing in star players and the kind of aggressiveness teams who have won championships in the near decade since the last Cubs triumph have been willing to make.
If Chicago is serious about winning now, this is a no-brainer kind of trade.
