The No. 7 seed in the Western Conference is on the line on Tuesday night, as the Golden State Warriors and Stephen Curry are favored at home against the Memphis Grizzlies in the play-in tournament.
So, how did we get here?
Well, Golden State needed a win on Sunday against the Los Angeles Clippers to clinch a playoff spot, but it ended up losing in overtime to fall into the play-in tournament field. The Warriors have home court in this game since they held the tiebreaker over Memphis by beating Ja Morant and company three times in four regular-season meetings.
The Grizzlies, who fired head coach Taylor Jenkins with just nine games left in the regular season, slid from the No. 2 seed to the play-in over the final few months of the regular season.
Since early February, Memphis has just two wins over .500 teams, and it hasn’t beaten a team in the Western Conference that is over .500 since January. Does that spell trouble for the Grizzlies in this matchup?
The reward for winning this series is a matchup with the Houston Rockets in the first round, and most importantly, the winner will avoid a first-round clash with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this play-in tournament clash.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
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Grizzlies Injury Report
Warriors Injury Report
Memphis Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet
While Morant finished the regular season averaging 23.2 points per game, I think he’s a great bet to clear his points prop – even up at 27.5 – in this matchup.
If there’s one thing that this Golden State team lacks, it’s a dominant rim protector, and I expect Morant to attack the paint at a high level in this play-in game. On top of that, Morant is taking 22.3 shots per game since returning from injury, attempting no fewer than 20 shots in any game.
The Grizzlies guard is averaging 28.4 points per game over that seven-game stretch, including a 36-point game against the Warriors. He’s a solid bet at this number in a winner-take-all setting.
Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet
Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski has come on in the second half of the season, but I think his rebound prop is a little high on Tuesday night.
Podziemski finished the regular season averaging 5.1 rebounds per game, although he did clear 6.5 boards six times in his last 14 games after returning from injury. Still, he averaged 5.9 rebounds per game during that stretch.
Memphis ranks No. 3 in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season, and while it plays at a fast pace – which means more possessions – Memphis held Podziemski to just five boards in the last meeting between these teams.
I think there’s a ton of value in getting the UNDER at +105 on Tuesday night.
There is a bit of a fatigue factor with the Warriors here since they played an overtime game on Sunday, but Golden State needs this win to give Curry, Butler, and Green a breather before the playoffs, and I expect Steve Kerr to pull out all the stops on Tuesday to get things done.
Memphis’ collapse over the last few months has been hard to watch, and it simply hasn’t beaten any good teams since February. Overall, Memphis is just 14-25 straight up against teams that are over .500 this season.
Plus, since the All-Star break, these teams are going two different ways.
While the Warriors didn’t do enough to earn a playoff spot outright, they are still 20-7 since the All-Star break and have the third-best net rating in the NBA.
On the other hand, Memphis went just 12-16 after the break and finished 17th in net rating during that stretch.
Morant has been playing at a high level since returning from injury, but I’m not sure that he alone will be enough for the Grizzlies to pull off this upset.
Memphis has fallen off a cliff defensively since the break (18th in defensive rating), and it ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in effective field goal percentage over that stretch.
With Curry, Butler, and Green all on the other side, Golden State has too much high-stakes playoff experience for me to fade it in this game, especially since it is the difference between facing Houston and OKC in the first round.
Pick: Warriors -7 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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