The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament begins on Tuesday with the No. 7 seeds being decided in the Eastern and Western Conferences. The Orlando Magic (-5.5) will host the Atlanta Hawks at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Golden State Warriors (-7) hosting the Memphis Grizzlies at 10 p.m. ET. Both teams are filled with star power for NBA player props like Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Ja Morant, Trae Young and Paolo Banchero. The Warriors are in the NBA Play-In Tournament for the second straight year and Curry had just 22 points in last year’s Play-In loss. His over/under for total points is 28.5 in NBA prop bets on betting apps for Tuesday, so could Curry’s Under be the better value?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Onyeka Okongwu Over 1.5 steals + blocks (-160)
The model projects Okongwu for one steal and 1.2 blocks, so given the model’s expectation of 2.2 steals + blocks, it would set the 1.5 steals + blocks odds closer to -240, which showcases strong value at the current price. Oh notes the Magic don’t get blocked at a high rate at 4.4 times per game, but that number rises to 5.0 at home. Okongwu also averaged 1.9 steals + blocks on the road compared to 1.7 at home this season with an Over rate of 55% and Oh also expects the game script to favor the Atlanta power forward to go Over this total on Tueday.
“My theory is Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are a little more aggressive taking it to opposing bigs thinking they’ll get more home court favorable calls which can result in more scoring but also more shots getting blocked,” Oh said. You can find value on this play at -160 odds at Bet365.
Cole Anthony Over 5.5 points (+100)
Anthony averaged a career-low 18.5 minutes per game in his fifth NBA season and there’s no guarantee what the Orlando postseason rotation will look like, but he’s played at least 20 minutes in six of the 11 games he’s played since the start of March. He scored at least six points in each of the six games he played at least 20 minutes and in eight of those 11 contests overall. Anthony missed two weeks at the end of March with a toe injury and in the four games he played alongside Banchero and Wagner in meaningful games in April, he went over this total in three of those contests despite averaging just 16.3 minutes per game.
The model projects Anthony at 11.2 points on Tuesday. Even with lineup uncertainty, the chance to play Anthony to reach a number he can make with just two or three baskets at plus money is tempting. His odds are as low as -125 at some sportsbooks to go Over 5.5 points, but BetMGM is currently offering this at even odds for Tuesday.
Zach Edey Over 8.5 points (-114)
This will be Edey’s first time in an NBA playoff environment, but the two-time Naismith College Player of the Year at Purdue is no stranger to postseason basketball. The model expects Edey to raise his performance yet again in a crucial game, projecting Edey at 9.8 points on Tuesday. Edey averaged 9.2 ppg this season, so this over/under is below both his projection and season-long average, which creates value for Oh. The 7-foot-4 Grizzlies center had 10 points against the Warriors on April 1.
“Guys his size are often relegated to the bench in games that become 3-point shootouts, but Edey has shown he can play in that style of game with a respectable 34.6% 3-point percentage on just under one attempt per game,” Oh said. “All we are doing is projecting him for a normal offensive output as he averaged 9.2 on the road.” FanDuel offers the best odds at -114 while other sportsbooks have juiced the number.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Tuesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
You can also view expert betting advice before making Tuesday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks from an expert who is 89-62-1 (+2075) over his last 152 NBA picks.
SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Mike Barner, who is 136-88 (+3273) over his last 224 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, which includes a play on one of the Golden State stars.
