The 2024-25 NBA regular has finished, and the craziness that was the final few weeks in the Western Conference has finally settled and now we have a playoff bracket to examine — and bet on.
The Golden State Warriors lost 124-119 in overtime on Sunday to the Los Angeles Clippers to fall into the play-in tournament instead of a top-six seed. The Denver Nuggets righted the ship after firing head coach Mike Malone to win their final three games and secure the No. 4 seed, where they’ll take on the aforementioned Clippers. And the Minnesota Timberwolves beat two tanking teams in their final two games to grab the No. 6 spot and a match-up with Luka Dončić, LeBron James and the 3-seed Los Angeles Lakers.
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They’re all chasing the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder, a deserving No. 1 seed and the team atop many oddsmakers’ power ratings. And the Houston Rockets are a surprise No. 2 seed.
The Eastern Conference has been settled for longer, but really revolves around the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that dominated in the regular season and was the No. 1 seed for much of the year. The No. 2 seed (and defending champion) Boston Celtics seem destined to meet the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals, unless the New York Knicks can find a way to beat the Celtics in the second round (the Knicks went 0-4 against them in the regular season).
The Thunder (+175) are the title favorites at BetMGM, followed by the Celtics (+220) and the Cavaliers (+600). No other team has odds better than 10-1, and the Lakers (11-1) and Warriors (14-1) have the next-best odds, despite Golden State being in the play-in tournament. The Lakers have the most wagers and money at BetMGM to win the championship and also represent its biggest liability nationally, followed by the Warriors.
Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors have the fifth-best odds to win it all despite being in the play-in. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
(Ezra Shaw via Getty Images)
Whereas public betting may waver at times during the NBA season because of all the injuries and load management, the playoffs are a big betting event, Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata in Atlantic City — a BetMGM book — told Yahoo Sports.
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“From a betting perspective, the handle is very good,” Gable said. “The NBA suffers from the way that they handle the day-to-day season with players resting, and I think a lot of the recreational players have phased out of the NBA because of that. But the playoffs are a totally different story.”
Here are the odds for this week’s NBA play-in games and series prices from BetMGM, along with betting splits on the action so far:
Play-in games
Tuesday
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks at No. 7 Orlando Magic (-5.5, 218.5)
BetMGM betting splits: 48% of bets, 82% of money on Magic -5.5
Gable: “Magic opened -5, up to -5.5 currently. Total has dropped down to 218.5 from 220.5 on the opener.”
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No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies at No. 7 Golden State Warriors (-6.5, 228.5)
BetMGM betting splits: 56% of bets, 77% of money on Warriors -6.5
Gable: “This number has bounced between 6.5 and 7. It’s 6.5 right now. Another one that the total has dropped, down from 231 to 228.5.”
Wednesday
No. 10 Miami Heat at No. 9 Chicago Bulls (-1.5, 218.5)
BetMGM betting splits: 81% of bets, 89% of money on Bulls -1.5
Gable: “Interestingly enough, this has the most wagered on it of the four play-in games. We’re at Chicago -1. This one has been bouncing between -1 and -1.5. It’s been pretty good two-way action. Total sitting 218.”
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No. 10 Dallas Mavericks at No. 9 Sacramento Kings (-4.5, 215.5)
BetMGM betting splits: 78% of bets, 77% of money on Kings -4.5
Gable: “It’s been mostly Kings money here, mostly recreational money though. The Kings are 4.5-point favorites.”
Series prices
Eastern Conference
No. 6 Detroit Pistons (+325) vs. No. 3 New York Knicks (-425)
BetMGM betting splits: 89% of bets, 93% of money on Pistons
Gable: “No movement on the price here. As you know, we get a ton of Knicks money in this market. We’ve taken some smaller bets on the Pistons series price, but nothing dramatic.”
No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks (+165) vs. No. 4 Indiana Pacers (-200)
BetMGM betting splits: 73% of bets, 64% of money on Bucks
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Gable: “Mostly some smaller ‘dog bets on the Bucks, the price is assuming Damion Lillard doesn’t play.”
Western Conference
No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers (-115) vs. No. 4 Denver Nuggets (-105)
BetMGM betting splits: 84% of bets, 89% of money on Clippers
Gable: “Nuggets are a small favorite here. Indicative of the price, pretty good two-way betting on that series.”
No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves (+165) vs. No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers (-200)
BetMGM betting splits: 71% of bets, 98% of handle
Gable: “Lakers are -200 favorites, not a ton of advance action on this series price so far. The Lakers-Wolves Game 1 price is second-most heavily bet game, but not a lot on the series right now.”
