The NBA Playoffs used to be boring, at least according to the skeptics. Upsets were few and far between, the best team was determined by who had the best individual player, and the best team almost always won. NBA fans endured four years of the Golden State Warriors vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals. With Kevin Durant in the Bay, the dream of NBA parity felt further out of reach than ever before.
NBA history has been defined by dynasties, from Russell and Bird’s Celtics to Magic and Kobe’s Lakers to Jordan’s Bulls to Duncan’s Spurs to Curry’s Warriors. That era of the league may not be gone forever, but if nothing else it’s been put on indefinite hiatus.
NBA parity is here, and it’s glorious. The league has crowned a different champion in each of the last six seasons, with the Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, and Boston Celtics each claiming the title. The last time that happened in league history was 1975-1980.
The Celtics enter the 2025 NBA Playoffs hoping to be the first team to win back-to-back championships since Durant and Curry’s Warriors. Boston is one of the favorites, but its path to a title should be much more difficult than the cakewalk it had last year.
The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs begin on Saturday. Let’s make picks for every first round series, and predict the rest of the bracket.
NBA Playoffs 2025: First round picks and predictions
The No. 8 seed in the East and West have yet to be determined at time of publishing.
Western Conference
Prediction: No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder advance in a sweep.
No. 2 seed Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors: This is going to be an amazing series. The Rockets have youth, size, and athleticism on their side. The Warriors have the two best players in the series in Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, but there’s no doubt that Golden State is smaller, slower, and creakier physically. I’ve changed my mind on this 10 times already. Can Amen Thompson lock down Curry for a whole series like he did in the regular season? Can the Rockets score enough in the halfcourt without a true star? Will Alperen Şengün abuse the Warriors’ small ball lineup? I’m expecting an instant classic. Prediction: Warriors in 7.
No. 3 seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves: It still doesn’t make any sense that the Lakers have Luka Doncic, and it never will. This roster still felt too flawed to me after the trade because of the lack of a starting-caliber big man, but head coach JJ Redick has done a great job coming up with creative defensive solutions. Rudy Gobert isn’t going to punish the Lakers defense, and I think LA’s traps could give Anthony Edwards some trouble. We already know Jaden McDaniels can’t guard Luka in the playoffs after last year’s Western Conference Finals. This also feels like it could be a big Austin Reaves series. Prediction: Lakers in 6.
No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers: Another amazing series. Nikola Jokic is turning in an all-time season, finishing top-3 in points, rebounds, assists, and steals while shooting nearly 42 percent from three. The rest of the Nuggets are pretty uninspiring, and the fact that they’ve had a new head coach for the last three games doesn’t exactly bring confidence. The Clippers are rolling. The James Harden-Ivica Zubac pick-and-roll has been devastating all season. Kawhi Leonard is back and playing big minutes at a high level. The perimeter defenders get after it, and Norm Powell can catch fire in a hurry. The Clippers have the better team, but believing in them to win this series means believing Leonard can stay healthy the entire way through (which hasn’t happened in the playoffs since 2020) and that Harden can overcome his long-standing playoff demons. The chips are stacked against Jokic here, but if Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordan can step up, I still like their chances. Prediction: Nuggets in 7.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers advance in a sweep.
No. 2 seed Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 seed Orlando Magic: The Magic could be so much better, but their historic lack of shooting and failure to optimize Paolo Banchero’s touches have made this a forgettable season. Please Orlando, follow the Pistons’ path of adding veteran shooters this summer! The Celtics are a juggernaut even with Jaylen Brown’s knee a little bulky right now. Prediction: Celtics in 5.
No. 3 seed New York Knicks vs. No. 6 seed Detroit Pistons: The Pistons are just a great story, going from a 14-win team last year to a 44-win team this year. Cade Cunningham is ready for his playoff coming out party to cement himself as one of the NBA’s best guards of the next generation. The Knicks went 0-10 against the top-3 teams in the NBA this year, but the Pistons aren’t at that level. New York has four of the five best players in the series at minimum. This is a great season for Detroit regardless of how it ends. Prediction: Knicks in 6.
No. 4 seed Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 seed Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks and Pacers have a wonderful little rivalry emerging, from game-ball gate to the Pacers using a football play to win a regular season matchup that gave them homecourt advantage in this series. Damian Lillard is currently out with a blood clot, but it’s possible he could play at some point in this series. With Dame, this feels like a toss up. Without him, the Pacers just feel like the more complete team with a more explosive offense. Indiana’s defense is much improved since last year, and they have enough bodies to try to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo at least a little bit. Can Giannis win this series by himself? Like Jokic vs. the Clippers, I wouldn’t put it past him, but without Dame the task is just too much. Prediction: Pacers in 6.
NBA Playoffs 2025: Champion and conference finals predictions
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There’s my full bracket. Let’s go over some of the big themes.
- I like the Warriors in series against the Lakers, but I’d take the Lakers over the Rockets. The Houston-Golden State first-round series is such a toss up that it feels extra bold to pick the Warriors to the Western Conference Finals, but that’s the way I’m leaning.
- Cavs-Pacers could be a great second round series in the East. Don’t forget that the Pacers made the Eastern Conference Finals last year, and this team is much better defensively, and has Tyrese Haliburton playing his best ball at the right time. I see Cavs-Pacers being more competitive than Celtics-Knicks. Still, I’m going Cleveland.
- It’s going to be a huge upset if the Eastern Conference Finals is anything other than Cavs-Celtics. I’m picking Celtics in 7 in an instant classic. Boston has the personnel to frustrate Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland on offense while targeting them defensively. This could be a huge Kristaps Porzingis series to pull Cleveland’s twin towers out of the paint. If Porzingis goes down with an injury, this series swings to the Cavs in my opinion.
NBA Finals 2025 predictions and picks
I’m going with Thunder over Celtics in six.
The Thunder have two big questions to me entering the playoffs:
- Can they keep forcing turnovers on defense at a historic rate?
- Can Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren step up as a secondary creator in the halfcourt?
Those are big issues. A team like the Lakers with two great ball handlers in Luka Doncic and LeBron James could give OKC some trouble. I think J-Dub and Chet are ready to step up, but the spacing can get a little cramped when the Thunder play their two big lineup (Holmgren + Isaiah Hartenstein) that they’ve been using frequently to end the season.
Still, I’m optimistic on the Thunder because I believe in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s greatness, they feel less reliant on the three-point shot than last year (when OKC saw it’s three-point percentage drop from 38.9 percent in the season to 34 percent in the playoffs), and the addition of Hartenstein can alleviate the defensive rebounding concerns. Keeping Alex Caruso fresh for the playoffs should pay major dividends. There’s just no weak link in this defense to attack. If defense wins championships (word to Nico Harrison) and superstars carry you across the finish line, OKC has the right combo with Shai (my Finals MVP pick) leading the way.
