Dallas must contain Ja Morant in Friday’s Play-In game if it hopes to snag the West’s No. 8 seed.
The final day of this year’s SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament will determine the No. 8 seeds in each conference. Get ready for the action with previews and predictions for Friday’s matchups.
East: (10) Miami Heat at (8) Atlanta Hawks (7 p.m. ET, TNT)
The winner: Advances to face Cleveland in the first round as the No. 8 seed.
The loser: Eliminated
Regular-season results: Tied, 2-2.
Keep your eye on: Defending Trae Young in the pick-and-roll
The Heat can assign an initial defender to Young, and that would likely be Andrew Wiggins if they start the same group that started in Chicago on Wednesday. But the more important question is how they defend the pick-and-roll, with Young having had 3,495 ball-screens (774 more than any other player) set for him this season.
Young is more effective as a passer than as a shooter, and the Orlando Magic succeeded on Tuesday by taking away his assist opportunities. Young shot just 8-for-21 and his 18 passes that led to a shot were tied for his sixth fewest all season, per Second Spectrum tracking. The Heat can also limit Young’s effectiveness by switching, but that could leave them vulnerable at the rim or on the glass.
Key matchup: Tyler Herro vs. Dyson Daniels
Nobody defended Herro this season more than Daniels, even though he missed the first of the four head-to-head meetings. He’ll surely have the assignment again on Friday, and the Heat will surely try to detach the Kia Defensive Player of the Year candidate from their leading scorer.
Expect Young to be put into actions on that end of the floor. Alec Burks (the starter Young will likely be defending) has set just 19 ball-screens for Herro all season, but six of those were in games against the Hawks. Young will need to hold up Herro long enough for Daniels to get back in front, and if Daniels can stay attached, Miami could struggle offensively.
Prediction: Hawks
The home team won all four regular-season meetings between these teams, with the difference being entirely about the Heat’s end of the floor. They scored 99.5 points per 100 possessions over the two games in Atlanta, but 132.5 per 100 over the two in Miami, shooting a ridiculous 41-for-75 (55%) from 3-point range. Davion Mitchell and Haywood Highsmith were a combined 16-for-20 from beyond the arc in those two games.
The Heat don’t need to replicate that kind of offensive success to win in Atlanta on Friday, but the Hawks should have a few more options on offense. They should feel relatively free on that end of the floor after Orlando’s second-ranked defense clamped down on them earlier this week.
West: (10) Dallas Mavericks at (8) Memphis Grizzlies (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The winner: Advances to face Oklahoma City in the first round as the No. 8 seed.
The loser: Eliminated
Regular-season results: Memphis, 3-1.
Keep your eye on: The battle inside
The Grizzlies outscored their opponents by 7.9 points in the paint per game, the league’s second biggest differential in the regular season. The Mavs had a negative differential, but are obviously a different team with a healthy (and big) frontline of P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. They also have a much bigger backcourt than Memphis.
Keeping the Grizzlies out of the paint starts in transition, where Memphis led the league with 32.8 points per game. After that, it will be a battle of positioning, rebounding and drawing fouls. The league took more 3-pointers than ever this season, but this game should be determined inside.
Key matchup: Davis vs. Jaren Jackson Jr.
The battle inside starts with the two talented power forwards who will also spend some time at center. Davis’ usage rate with the Mavs (31.6% in the regular season, 32.5% on Wednesday) would be his highest rate in the last eight seasons. Jackson has also taken on a larger offensive role over the last two seasons.
Both guys shot well against the other when they matched up (when Davis was with the Lakers) this season. This isn’t a one-on-one sport, but this will be a fascinating and critical matchup on Friday.
Bench production may prove key when the Grizzlies and Mavs meet up on Friday in the Play-In Tournament.
Prediction: Grizzlies
While the Grizzlies have struggled against good teams, they went 36-9 (17-4 at home) against the 16 teams that finished at or below .500 this season. And while both teams can dominate inside, Memphis certainly has more firepower on the perimeter. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane combined for 52 points in the Grizzlies’ loss at Golden State on Tuesday and the Mavs’ best perimeter defenders — Danté Exum and Max Christie — come off the bench (with both playing fewer than 20 minutes in Sacramento).
This matchup could come down to the possession game (turnovers and rebounds) and the Grizzlies should have the advantage there, giving them the transition opportunities that they need.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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