A full weekend of sports entertainment begins Saturday with the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. MLB action, the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, two days of Wrestlemania 41, and the PGA TOUR’s RBC Heritage are on the docket this weekend, too. Needless to say, it’s a bad weekend to be a beer in the Clark household.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast’s 2025 NBA Play-In, Playoffs’ First Round Preview Ft. David Troy & MacKenzie Rivers
Back to the NBA playoffs, which I’m hellbent on profiting from after an atrocious regular season. I’ll regroup if I get smacked in the first few days of the postseason. But, until then, I’m betting on all non-New York Knicks games in these playoffs, since I’m a biased Knicks fan.
Here are my looks for the first day of the NBA postseason.
2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets for Saturday, April 19
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 (-108), down to +3.5, at Indiana Pacers via DraftKings, risking 1.08 units (u).
- Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-108), up to -3.5, vs. Los Angeles Clippers via DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
- New York Knicks SF Mikal Bridges OVER 16.5 points (-102), up to -115, vs. Detroit Pistons via FanDuel, risking 0.51u.
- Los Angeles Lakers -4 (-110), up to -5, vs. Minnesota Timberwolves via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
Bucks (+5.5) at Pacers
I’d sprinkle on Milwaukee’s moneyline for Game 1, but I already bet the Bucks to win this series at +185 odds, so I don’t want to invest more money in them. Plus, that price isn’t available anymore because I placed the wager before news broke that Milwaukee All-Star Damian Lillard could return from his blood clot injury this series.
Yet, the Bucks will beat the Pacers even if Dame misses this series because two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will get in Indiana’s a**. Giannis averaged 30.0 points on 64.9% shooting with 12.3 rebounds and 7.5 assists in four games vs. the Pacers this season. Milwaukee was 3-1 straight up (SU) and 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in those meetings.
The Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks for Game 1 in the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs Saturday. (Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, the Bucks have better offensive efficiency in half-court sets and surprisingly lead the NBA in 3-point percentage. They have the best defensive shot quality since the All-Star break, per CleaningTheGlass.com, and Indy is 25th. Finally, Milwaukee should dominate the boards because Indiana is 29th in offensive rebounding rate and 20th defensively.
Prediction: Bucks 116, Pacers 112
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Clippers at Nuggets (-2.5)
The market hammered the Clippers when they opened as +130 underdogs in this series, and it’s -110 both ways now. I wouldn’t bet on either team to win this series with your money. The Clippers have cost me more money than any team in sports over the last five years and I hate that Denver fired former head coach Mike Malone earlier this month.
That said, Denver will mop the Clippers in Game 1 because Nuggets warlord Nikola Jokić is having one of the greatest statistical seasons in NBA history and said “Maybe he woke up the beast” after Malone was fired. Meaning, Jokic will rip the Clippers’ heads off and crap down their necks Saturday.
Also, Denver is healthy entering the 2025 NBA Playoffs with a championship core, including Jokic, combo guard Jamal Murray, sharpshooting wing Michael Porter Jr., and defensive forward Aaron Gordon. Murray can carry his weight in a duel vs. James Harden. Porter is a good rebounder and can space the floor. Gordon is at least an answer to “Who will defend Kawhi Leonard?”
Both teams play at a slow pace and don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but the Nuggets are a better 3-point shooting team and get better looks. Denver’s five starters shoot higher than 39.0% from behind the arc. The Nuggets are ninth in offensive shot quality since the NBA All-Star Game and the Clippers are 28th, according to CTG.
Prediction: Nuggets 118, Clippers 109
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Knicks SF Mikal Bridges OVER 16.5 Points vs. Pistons
As a Knicks fan, I’m abstaining from betting this series. I think/hope New York wins. Yet, Pistons All-Star PG Cade Cunningham is one of my favorite players in the NBA and the best player on the floor. I know that’s a “hot take”, but I’d draft Cade for the next five years over every other player in the Eastern Conference besides Giannis. That’s how much I like Cunningham.
However, since I’ll obviously be watching, I want some action in this game, and Bridges will have a nice game Saturday. Detroit’s best defender, wing Ausar Thompson, will focus on Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson, and Pistons forwards Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tobias Harris cannot “D up” like Thompson.
This explains Bridges averaging 19.8 points on 70.4% true shooting (.566/.520/.857) in four meetings with the Pistons this season. He scored 17+ points in three of those games. Lastly, Bridges scores four more points per game at home (19.6-15.6 PPG) with a higher true shooting rate (60.5-56.1%) and offensive rating (119-115).
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Timberwolves at Lakers (-4)
Minnesota needs to clone All-Star SG Anthony Edwards to win this series. With all due respect to T-Wolves PF Julius Randle, who I loved when he played for the Knicks, this series will be Edwards vs. LeBron James and Luka Dončić. In fact, LA’s third banana, combo guard Austin Reaves, has a higher PER than Julius (18.1-17.5).
More importantly, Luka slaughtered the Timberwolves in the 2024 Western Conference Finals. Dončić led the series in points (32.4), rebounds (9.6), and assists (8.2) per game. It was a masterclass from Luka, who has been unreal in the playoffs, averaging 30.9 points per game in his career.
The Minnesota Timberwolves face the Los Angeles Lakers Saturday for Game 1 in the first round of the 2025 Western Conference Playoffs. (Photo credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images)
On top of that, T-Wolves C Rudy Gobert will get played off the court in this series. Dončić feasts on Gobert in pick-and-roll action, and the Lakers have a “five-out” lineup with LeBron, Luka, Reaves and forwards Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith, all of whom are above-average 3-point shooters. I.e., there is nowhere to hide Gobert, Minnesota’s second-best player.
Prediction: Lakers 115, Timberwolves 107
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.
