The betting market does not exist in a vacuum. Previous results do matter. But the discrepancy and potential value often hinge on how much weight to place on previous results.
With 180 combined points, Game 1 between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets landed well below the closing total of 213. That came two weeks after meeting in the regular season with 202 combined points with a closing total of 226.
Now, all matchups will involve lower totals because the postseason typically features stronger defense and more measured possessions. In fact, eight of the first 10 NBA playoff games this postseason have landed under the total. However, this particular matchup seemingly creates rock fights every single game.
The last five meetings this season have featured 192, 181, 203, 202 and 180 points. The posted totals for those games were 219, 221, 226, 226 and 213, respectively.
Clearly the most recent total of 213 in Game 1 was a significant adjustment, but oddsmakers are not done tinkering. Game 2 has a total of 203.5. That’s an adjustment of 22.5 points between the final regular-season meeting and Game 2.
Nonetheless, I am still backing the Under. Houston’s offense is incredibly stagnant and I am unsure it can make enough shots to offset the Warriors defense. Specifically, these teams rank middle of the pack in offensive efficiency and both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.
Betting on the NBA?
Steph Curry is the greatest shooter ever and will certainly find his points. But that cheat code prevents any offensive fluidity, especially with such limited scorers in Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney and Moses Moody.
Styles make fights, and this shapes up to be another low-scoring affair. I am 37-28-1 ATS in this Post sports section and my next play is Under 203.5.
The play: Under 203.5 total points (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
