Two thrilling performances in the Denver Nuggets-Los Angeles Clippers series has led to a 1-1 series tie heading into Thursday’s Game 3 in Los Angeles.
Denver took Game 1 of this series in overtime, but a 15-for-19 shooting performance from Kawhi Leonard was enough for the Clippers to steal Game 2 – and home court – heading into a crucial Game 3.
Denver’s offense has had some ups and downs in this series, and the Clippers sold out to double Nikola Jokic in Game 2, leading to seven turnovers from the three-time league MVP.
Will Tyronn Lue’s gameplan work again at home?
No team in the NBA was better against the spread than the Los Angeles Clippers when favored at home, and oddsmakers are giving them the edge in the latest odds for this matchup.
Let’s take a look at those odds, some players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Game 3.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Nuggets Injury Report
Clippers Injury Report
Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet
The Clippers frustrated Jokic a bit in Game 2, sending double teams his way more often than not.
That led to the three-time MVP turning the ball over a whopping seven times, but he still dished out 10 assists in the process. Through two games this series, Jokic has 22 assists, and he finished the regular season averaging over 10 a game.
So, I love him at even money to reach double digits again in Game 3.
If there’s one thing we know about Jokic, it’s that he’s always willing to make the right basketball play, and if the Clippers continue to double him, it’s going to leave players open for him to hit for assists.
While Denver may not love all the shots it gets out of Jokic doubles, the best player in the world is too good of a playmaker to pass up when he can find his teammates in a 4-on-3 scenario.
Los Angeles Clippers Best NBA Prop Bet
So far in the first round, James Harden has taken 20 shots from beyond the arc and made eight of them, going 4-of-9 in Game 1 and 4-of-11 in Game 2.
On Thursday, he’s a pretty solid bet at home if that usage keeps up. During the regular season, Harden shot just 35.2 percent from 3, but this is a favorable matchup against a suspect Denver defense.
The Nuggets finished the regular season ranking 20th in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage. Don’t be shocked if Harden hits at least three shots from deep in Game 3.
The first two games in this series were decided by two and three points, but the Clippers are the team that escaped Denver with the home-court advantage.
This season, the Clippers are the best team in the NBA when favored at home, going 20-8 against the spread. That’s going to be an issue that struggled to hold a lead at home in the first two games of this matchup.
The Nuggets also have some injury issues after Michale Porter Jr. is dealing with a shoulder sprain that he suffered late in Game 2. Denver – already thin rotation wise as it is – can’t afford to have one of its best players out of the lineup or at less than 100 percent against a deeper Clippers team.
Los Angeles closed out the regular season with a 17-3 record in its last 20 games, posting the best net rating in the NBA over its final 10 games.
The Clips appear to be picking up right where they left off when it comes to this series, and Leonard’s masterpiece in Game 2 is a positive sign for this team’s long-term chances in the playoffs.
After the Clippers move to double Jokic in Game 2 led to a ton of turnovers and ultimately a Denver loss, I think they are in a prime spot to take a 2-1 series lead tonight.
Pick: Clippers -5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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