LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers have their backs against the wall entering Game 5 at Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday night.
After Lakers head coach J.J. Redick sold out to win Game 4 – playing his best five players the entire second half but coming up short – the Lakers now need to win three games in a row in order to advance to the second round.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are showing the entire NBA why they had the fourth-best net rating in the NBA during the regular season. Chris Finch has been able to use a ton of different lineup combinations to combat the Lakers’ five-out look, and Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have both played at a high level in this series to give Minnesota a 3-1 lead.
Oddsmakers are expecting the Lakers to at least extend this series to a Game 6, setting them as 5.5-point favorites in Game 5.
Can the Lakers force a Game 6 in Minnesota and keep their season alive?
Let’s take a look at the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 5.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
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Timberwolves Injury Report
Lakers Injury Report
Edwards has cleared this prop in three of his four games in this series, and the Wolves star has taken at least eight shots from beyond the arc in every game.
During the regular season, Edwards shot 39.5 percent from deep on 10.3 attempts per game, so this usage is pretty normal for him. Plus, after two down games (by his standards) to open the series, Edwards has rebounded to shoot 5-for-10 from 3 in each of his last two matchups.
He’s worth a look in this market on Wednesday.
James has done it all for the Lakers in this series, even if he’s no longer the primary scoring option in the offense.
The four-time NBA champion has at least 10 rebounds in each of his last three games, and he’s averaging 15.5 rebounds chances per game.
With the Lakers insisting on playing small lineups – and playing the 40-year-old James big minutes – LeBron is forced to hit the glass to help L.A. end possessions. He also has at least three offensive boards in each of his last three games.
I’m buying LeBron to do whatever it takes for the Lakers in a win-or-go-home game.
The Timberwolves have played extremely well in this series, and Chris Finch seems to have a new lineup or combination for just about all of the Lakers’ best lineups (and there aren’t many).
Finch has been willing to sit Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert to match up better with the Lakers’ five-out lineup of Doncic, James, Austin Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura. And, the Wolves have been more successful with their group thanks to some big games from Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels.
While the Lakers were 31-10 straight up at home in the regular season and one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread as home favorites, this is way too many points to lay with L.A. in Game 5.
J.J. Redick sent a message in Game 4 that he doesn’t trust his bench, and it’s going to be hard for the Lakers to get away with many minutes where Doncic and James are off the court. Minnesota is third in offensive rating in the postseason while the Lakers are eighth, and the Wolves are an impressive 10-6 ATS when set as road underdogs this season.
I don’t think that it’s impossible for the Lakers to win this game, but asking them to do so by two possessions – after getting outplayed in crunch time in Games 3 and 4 – is too much for my liking.
Pick: Timberwolves +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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