Nikola Jokic. Kawhi Leonard. Jamal Murray. James Harden. GAME 7.
It doesn’t get much better than Saturday night in the NBA, as the Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Clippers in a winner-take-all Game 7 for a chance to advance to the second round to play the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oddsmakers have set the Nuggets as favorites in this matchup, but there has been some odds movement, as Los Angeles actually opened as the favorite in the betting market.
So far in this series, Denver is 2-1 at home, but the Clippers turned in an impressive performance in an elimination game on Thursday night to extend the series.
From the start, this matchup looked like it was going to go seven games, as Denver needed overtime to win Game 1 and multiple games have been decided by one possession.
If you’re looking to bet on this Game 7 clash, I’ve got you covered.
Here’s a breakdown of my favorite picks for the final matchup of the Clippers-Nuggets first-round series.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jamal Murray OVER 21.5 Points (-110)
In this series, Jamal Murray has at least 21 points in five of his six games, clearing 21.5 points in three of them.
He’s taking plenty of shots for Denver, averaging 19.0 field goal attempts and 7.3 3-point attempts per game. That usage could rise in a Game 7 where Denver needs Murray and Nikola Jokic to carry the scoring load.
The Nuggets have also played Murray a ton of minutes as of late, as he’s cleared 40 minutes in all but one game in this matchup.
I am expecting Murray to have a big scoring game once again on Saturday.
Denver Nuggets-Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 206 (-110)
Since 2005, UNDERs in Game 7s in the NBA playoffs are hitting a ridiculous 62 percent clip, coming through in 39 of 63 games.
Only one game in this series has fallen short of this number (Game 4), but the Nuggets and Clippers both appeared to tighten up defensively in Game 6, combining for just 216 points after a high-scoring Game 5.
With everything on the line in Game 7, I wouldn’t be shocked to see both of these teams slow things down on the offensive end.
Plus, the Clippers finished the regular season with the No. 3 defense in the NBA, so they’re equipped for the style of a Game 7. The UNDER is 45-41-2 in the Clippers’ games this season.
Denver has played well when pushing the pace at times in this series, but the Clippers have done everything they can to limit Jokic, who had a down game (by his standards) in Game 6. If Denver’s role players aren’t going to hit shots, the Nuggets could be in for a struggle of a matchup in Game 7.
This trend has been pretty consistent for two decades, and I’m going to roll with it again on Saturday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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