The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers will play on Saturday night with a trip to the second round on the line after these squads split the first six games of their first-round matchup.
In Game 7, there are plenty of players to consider in the prop market, but historically Game 7 matchups have been lower-scoring affairs, which is important to keep in mind.
UNDERs are 39-24 (62%) in Game 7s since 2005 per @Bet_Labs 📉
Clippers-Nuggets total has moved from 209.5 to 204.5 at @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/mk9yrlbXJ1
— John Ewing (@johnewing) May 2, 2025
I’m targeting … in the prop market for Saturday night’s standalone contest, with the Nuggets set as slight favorites at home.
Let’s break down each of these player props for this series finale.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Michael Porter Jr. UNDER 15.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)
Michael Porter Jr. is dealing with a shoulder sprain, and he’s really struggling to score in this series, putting up just five points in Game 6 and averaging 10.2 points per game for the series.
MPJ has just three games in this matchup where he’s finished with 16 or more rebounds and assists, and one of those games came before his shoulder injury. Not only that, but MPJ barely cleared this prop in Game 5, putting up 14 points and two rebounds.
He played just 24 minutes in Game 6, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him lose more minutes to Russell Westbrook on Saturday.
James Harden UNDER 9.5 Assists (-135)
This postseason, James Harden is averaging 8.5 assists per game and he’s only cleared 9.5 assists in two of six games.
The star guard finished with eight assists in Game 6, but he’s averaging just 13.7 potential assists per game in the series. So, Harden would need to convert over two thirds of these in order to clear this prop.
In what may be a low-scoring game (Game 7 UNDERs are a massive trend), I think Harden falls short of this line for the fifth time in seven games.
Jamal Murray OVER 21.5 Points (-110)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jamal Murray is an elite prop target on Saturday.
In this series, Jamal Murray has at least 21 points in five of his six games, clearing 21.5 points in three of them.
He’s taking plenty of shots for Denver, averaging 19.0 field goal attempts and 7.3 3-point attempts per game. That usage could rise in a Game 7 where Denver needs Murray and Nikola Jokic to carry the scoring load.
The Nuggets have also played Murray a ton of minutes as of late, as he’s cleared 40 minutes in all but one game in this matchup.
I am expecting Murray to have a big scoring game once again on Saturday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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