The Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers made quick work of their opponents in the first round of the NBA playoffs, and now they kick off the second-round action on Sunday evening.
Cleveland – the No. 1 seed in the East – is a major favorite at home in this matchup, but the Pacers did win three of the four meetings between these teams in the regular season (although two came at the end of the year with both teams locked into playoff spots and sitting players).
The Cavs blew out the Miami Heat in back-to-back games to complete a sweep in the first round while the Pacers took down the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, finishing things off with a Tyrese Haliburton game-winning layup in overtime in Game 5.
This matchup features some of the top guards in the Eastern Conference, including Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Garland is questionable for Game 1 with a toe injury that kept him out of the final two games of the series with Miami.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this series opener.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Pacers Injury Report
Cavs Injury Report
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
I shared this pick for Haliburton in today’s NBA Best Bets column as he may be undervalued against Cleveland given how he’s played since the All-Star break:
This postseason, Tyrese Haliburton has 10 or more assists in four of five games, and he’s averaging a whopping 17.0 potential assists per night.
In the second half of the regular season (after the All-Star break), Haliburton returned to his All-NBA form, averaging 11.0 assists per game across 21 games.
In a matchup with a total all the way up at 229.5, I think Haliburton may be a little undervalued in this market – even against a tough Cavs defense. The Pacers guard will have the ball in his hands a ton, and he’s done a great job in this postseason of involving his teammates, leading to some big games from Pascal Siakam against Milwaukee.
At anything set at under 10.5 assists, Haliburton is worth a shot on the OVER.
Cleveland Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bet
Could this be a big game for Donovan Mitchell? With Darius Garland banged up due to a toe injury, Mitchell may be asked to carry more of the scoring load in this matchup.
The star guard scored 30 points in Game 1 and in Game 2 against Miami before playing limited minutes in the final two games of the series because Cleveland won by so much.
Mitchell is averaging 27.9 points per game in the playoffs since the start of last postseason.
The Cavs are heavily favored to win this game and this series, but the Pacers are one of the few teams that have the offensive firepower – and the depth – to compete with this Cavs team.
Indiana played as many as 11 guys in the first round against the Bucks, and it has one of the five-best offensive ratings in the NBA this postseason. While Cleveland’s dominance of Miami was impressive, the Heat were also a No. 8 seed (originally a No. 10 seed) that went through the play-in tournament with two road wins just to make the postseason.
Cleveland was always going to win that matchup, and now it has to face a much tougher opponent in the Pacers, who made the Eastern Conference Finals last season.
While the Cavs may end up winning this game, I am a little concerned with Garland’s toe injury and how it will impact Cleveland on offense. The Cavs have a ton of scoring options, but losing Garland as a scorer and playmaker will thrust Ty Jerome into a much bigger role.
Plus, Indiana may be able to get away with more switching/smaller lineups with Andrew Nembhard on defense if the Cavs can’t punish them with their two All-Star guards. Garland also may play, but he will have to shake some rust off in this matchup.
The Pacers were 13-10 against the spread as road underdogs in the regular season, and I think this spread is a little bit of an overreaction to Cleveland dominating Miami. I’ll back Indiana to cover tonight.
Pick: Pacers +8 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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