Round 2 is finally here. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been waiting a week to find out its next playoff matchup and after the Denver Nuggets routed the LA Clippers in Game 7 Saturday, OKC got its answer.
This series has plenty of storylines to marvel at, most notable the two stars. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic. the top two finishers for the NBA MVP Award two years in a row.
Let’s break down the X factors in this series, which will decide who punches their ticket to the Western Conference Finals after each side was bounced in the second round a year ago.
The Oklahoma City Thunder went out and inked Isaiah Hartenstein to a massive three-year $83 million pact this offseason. A move made with this time of year –– and matchup –– in mind. Hartenstein has provided a massive boost to the Thunder’s front-court depth but has also given Oklahoma City another tool in its toolbox. A double-big lineup.
Many expect Mark Daigneault to deploy the double-big lineup to start Monday’s Game 1, but how are they rolled out for the length of the series?
Chet Holmgren has held his own –– as best anyone can –– against Nikola Jokic and is far more comfortable operating offensively as the lone big. Holmgren’s three-level scoring is a nightmare to deal with for opponents and his rim protection is stellar. How often does the Thunder want him on the floor alone for these reasons?
Hartenstein has the body that leads you to believe success can be found against Jokic, and he is certainly a better backup big than the Thunder rostered a year ago. His strength is also found in the secondary unit, helping OKC’s offense stay in a groove as a playmaking hub and wipe-away screener to create space for Jalen Williams and company.
Playing one center at a time gives Oklahoma City a better chance at high-end rotations on the back-end to take away some of the elite playmaking jobs of Jokic. Though it isn’t as though the Thunder can’t find success with two bigs on the floor.
It will be interesting to monitor and series deciding, to see how OKC utilizes its frontcourt. Including the chances of getting into foul trouble.
When Hartenstein and/or Holmgren get hit with one too many citations, that even Daigneault’s leaniant approach to playing guys in foul trouble, forcing guys to the bench, how can Jaylin Williams step up?
The Arkansas big man has vastly improved defensively, and physically held up well against Jokic back in March. If he can toss in a few triples in those minutes to boot, it can swing a game in that setting.
The Denver Nuggets in some ways goes as Jokic does. He is the straw that stirs the drink. Though, he will not play all 48 minutes (He should play as close to that number as possible). That forces the Nuggets to turn to 17-year NBA veteran DeAndre Jordan who is passed his expiration date.
The Thunder must dominate these non-Jokic minutes to win this series and it can not be close. Sure, Denver could dust off Zeke Nnaji in this matchup (which might be the better move), but he is only a slight step up from Jordan.
If Denver is even competitive in the stretches they play without Jokic, Oklahoma City will be put on upset alert.
The Nuggets have “Let Russ be Russ,” more than his previous stops, but at the end of the day, he is still forced into too many corner triples that don’t suit his game. To his credit, he hit the trey ball at a 41% clip in Round 1. If that is sustained in the second round, it would be a big win for Denver.
However, what if he starts tossing bricks at the rim? Then you mix in a turnover, an ill-advised drive, and all of a sudden, a top-six player for the Nuggets is a negative impact.
Westbrook has been a polarizing player since stepping foot in this league, and Denver is at the mercy of how he plays in this round.
In the past, the emotionally charged player can channel that energy into fantastic outings or become too swept up in it and derail his production (Shoutout Ricky Rubio and Damian Lillard). How will Westbrook handle this emotional series?
If Denver gets another consistent shooting series from Westbrook, this series changes. If not, they are fighting an uphill battle.
On that same note, this series could be summarized up by a simple statistic: Who shoots better from beyond the arc?
For Denver, they have streaky distance shooters who have at least tossed in meaningful triples during big games before.
For the Thunder, they have more talented 3-point marksmen but have often left a lot on the table in situations like this –– in an incredibly small sample size.
Is this the series where Oklahoma City’s role players can finally put together a consistently good shooting series? If so, the Thunder would be in position to punch its ticket to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016.
This is a lot to put on a 24-year-old going through just his second-ever playoff run, but the Santa Clara product has to be a go-to scoring option for Oklahoma City. Not just playing Robin to Gilgeous-Alexander’s Batman but leading units of his own in the non-superstar minutes.
Williams handled this responsibility admirably in Round 1, passing his first test with flying colors. However, this is a whole new ball game as the pressure mounts, the lights get brighter and the competition stiffens.
If the Thunder swingman can provide a big-time scoring bunch in this series, Oklahoma City will be able to stave off Denver in this best-of-7 set.
Williams’ ability to put the pumpkin in the patch consistently will put a test to one of the NBA’s longest-standing theories about inexperience this time of year.
This series should feature great basketball with two desperate teams trying to make it further than they did a year ago, with a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Plenty of drama, storylines and X Factors litter this series.
It all begins Monday, May 5 inside the Paycom Center with tip-off slated for 8:30 PM CT with the game being shown on TNT.
