It’s almost time for the NBA draft lottery, and while the San Antonio Spurs are out of the running in the postseason, they most certainly are not when it comes to the ping-ponging of lottery balls.
Obviously every Spurs fan would be overjoyed to land the top pick in the draft after a lost and medical-condition-filled regular season, and they do have a combined 7%(ish) chance at landing the all-but-guaranteed first pick in the compelling Cooper Flagg, but with 13 other teams in the mix, there are a lot of possible winners, so let’s take a look at some of them.
The following represents my completely unbiased power-ranking of several different draft lottery scenarios. For the sake of brevity I’m only going to rank the top five (and an honorable mention) of each category.
First, let’s take a look at the actual team-by-team odds, according to regular-season record:
Utah Jazz (17-65 record in 2024-25), 14%
Washington Wizards (18-64), 14%
Charlotte Hornets (19-63), 14%
New Orleans Pelicans (21-61), 12.5%
Philadelphia 76ers* (24-58), 10.5%
Brooklyn Nets (26-56), 9%
Toronto Raptors (30-52), 7.5%
San Antonio Spurs (34-48), 6%
Phoenix Suns (36-46), 3.8% (pick goes to Houston Rockets via trade with Brooklyn Nets)
Portland Trail Blazers (36-46), 3.7%
Dallas Mavericks (39-43), 1.8%
Chicago Bulls (39-43), 1.7%
Sacramento** (40-42), .8%
Atlanta (40-42), .7% (pick goes to San Antonio Spurs)
*Pick may be conveyed to Oklahoma City Thunder (Top 6 Protected)
**Pick may be conveyed to Atlanta Hawks (Top 12 Protected)
Reminder that the draft lottery process consists of multiple drawings to determine the first four picks in the NBA draft. The remainder of the lottery teams will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their records at the end of the regular season.
There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection, so basically a real-life Dumb and Dumber quote brought to life.
And though a representative from an outside accounting firm oversees the entire process, and no one outside of the room is informed of the lottery results ahead of time, that hasn’t stopped NBA fans from coming up with a variety of conspiracy theories, going all the way back to the very first NBA lottery.
So, with all that in mind, let’s strap in and look at some possibilities!
The ‘Who actually deserves it?’ rankings
I tend to find myself aligned with Unforgiven’s William Munny on this one, deserve’s got nothing to do with it. Tanking feels distasteful, losing carries no real moral implication, everyone’s greedy and thankless, and there’s really no reason that bad luck should be rewarded. However, for argument’s sake:
Honorable Mention: Dallas Mavericks (Fans) — Let’s get one thing straight, I don’t like the Mavs. I don’t like their uniforms, I don’t like their mouthy former owner, and my hatred of them post-2006 Western Conference Semifinals was only enhanced by the fact that they then choked away their shot at the Spurs’ 2006 championship like the chumps they are. However, I don’t think I’ve ever felt so bad for the fans of any sports team like I do Dallas Mavericks fans after the asinine Luke Doncic trade. As such, I’m okay-ish with them winning the first pick, on the condition that they run Nico Harrison out of town on a rail first.
5. Utah Jazz — As much as I dislike the Mavericks, at least they had a player or two that I was fond of (shout-out to Dirk Nowitzki for taking down LeBron James and the Heatles), or at least didn’t loathe. I liked Jerry Sloan, and I respected John Stockton’s grit, but they’re at least one elbow to David Robinson’s head away from me being cool with them winning the number one pick. This ranking is solely representative of how dedicated they were to their tank. It’s the worst Utah Jazz team ever, and it’s not even close. Technically, they’ve earned it, I guess.
4. Washington Wizards — Anyone who’s still rooting for this team after all these years deserves something. Whether it’s the number one pick, or to be studied in a lab for their rest of their lives is worthy of debate. This would be for the dude who’s still rocking a Larry Hughes jersey in front of his TV. Or for the old head who still talks about how amazing an outlet passer Wes Unseld was in-person. Still a 50/50 chance that they should be committed to a mental care facility though.
3. Portland Trail Blazers — At this point their draft history has become a bit of a punch line. Greg Oden? Sam Bowie?? LaRue Martin??? I mean, this franchise just cannot catch a break/get out of their own way. Also, they get bonus points for not tanking as well as they could have. Can’t rank them first though because 1) They’ve already had the number one pick 4(!) times and 2) There’s always a chance they’ll do something stupid and take a player other than Flagg. These people just cannot be trusted!
2. Charlotte Hornets — This version of the Hornets have never landed the number one pick in the draft, as their online cohort is only too happy to remind everyone. Technically the previous version did, but that was back in 1991. It’s pretty arguable that they’ve overdue, and I’m theoretically in favor of this if it ensures that Hornets fans don’t lose their team to relocation a second time. Also, how funny would it be if they were to land the number one pick right after Michael Jordan sold the team?
1. San Antonio Spurs — This would not be a popular outcome outside of this blog, but I encourage other fan-bases to think about how unfortunate a season the Spurs just had. Their superstar went down with a blot clot. They lost the greatest coach in team (and possibly NBA) history in a less-than-ideal manner. They missed the postseason for a franchise record 6th straight season. Am I winning you over? No? Well, it was worth a shot.
The ‘What’s best for Cooper Flagg?’ rankings
Honorable Mention: New Orleans Pelicans — This ranking is almost entirely for the food. Flagg’s going to need to put a little weight on that frame, and New Orleans is arguably the most delectable locale to do that in. We’ve already seen the effect it’s had on Zion. However, there’s also a chance that pairing Flagg with Zion could be a real problem for the rest of the Southwest Division, and I just cannot root for that outcome.
5. Utah Jazz — The Jazz are definitely not as bad as their record indicates. They’re usually a pretty stable and competent franchise. They have a dedicated (albeit pathological) fan-base. And they have a championship architect in Danny Ainge running things. On the other hand, Mormons.
4. Philadelphia 76’ers — In theory, this team would be stacked. But I for one would never wish Philadelphia sports fans on Cooper Flagg. We’re talking about the kind of fans who cheer career-ending injuries and boo Santa Claus. He seems like a nice kid. He deserves better.
3. Houston Rockets — Absolutely not. I don’t care how good that team is, nothing good can come from living in disease-riddled swampland. It’s the number one city for human trafficking in the United States. The only real upside would be the lack of state tax, but there are other cites that could offer that…
2. Toronto Raptors — The Raptors are another team that’s better than their record, and they’d instantly be a handful in the front-court if they added Flagg to the duo of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes. Flagg would be the perfect complement to a team that’s long at seemingly every position, but needs some scoring in combination with their rim defense, and he’d instantly be elevated to Canadian hero status for a fan-base that’s notoriously polite. It’s an undeniably soft landing, but it does mean living in Canada, and being paid in a currency commonly known as the Loonie. Yikes.
1. San Antonio Spurs — We’re talking about getting to team up with one of the most freakish talents around in Victor Wembanyama, a roster better than their win total that would be looking at their 3rd straight NBA rookie of the year award. Throw in a franchise known for protecting their player’s privacy and treating them like family, a fan-base that’s both knowledgeable and patient, and all the benefits of living in Texas. Flagg would be set up to be part of a team that could dominate the NBA for a decade-plus, could choose exactly the level of community engagement he desires, and he’s already shown a fondness for the city and team facilities. The only downside would be not getting coached by Gregg Popovich, but it sounds like he’ll still be in the building.
The Break the Internet/Tin Foil Hat Power Rankings
Honorable Mention: Washington Wizards — This wouldn’t tip the scales in either category alone, but if the Wizards land what would be an NBA record 7th number one pick, you can expect some grumbling on the internet about it, and maybe even some conspiracy-adjacent talk. Regardless of the level of outrage, there’s no question that the jokes would absolutely be flying.
5. Sacramento Kings — This would be all about the pure shock factor. The Kings have a slim 3.8% chance of landing in the Top 4 and getting to keep their pick, but they have just a .8% chance of landing the top pick, and you can expect the internet to explode if they do. Those would be the lowest odds to take the first pick since the Cavaliers had a 1.7% chance in 2014, and would top the record of 1.52% set by the Magic back in 1993. The sheer improbability would be enough to set the internet on fire, but like with the Wizards, the memes would rain down in equal measure for one of the NBA’s most unfortunate franchises.
4. Philadelphia 76ers — It’s hard to know where to place this one, because the outrage and internet traffic could go a number of ways. The Sixers have good enough odds for too much tin foil hatting, but this could lead to everything from a rare peaceful night in Philly, to trade rumors, contract rumors, and basically any rumor involving Joel Embiid and Paul George. With players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Kevin Durant potentially on the trade market as well, I’m guessing this would start many an internet knife-fight over the next several months.
3. Houston Rockets — Ok, now we’re getting into some really contentious territory. The Rockets won 52 games this season, and ended up the 2nd seed in the Western Conference. No one is going to be happy to see a team with that record win the number one pick. And since the Rocket’s only have 3.8% chance via a trade with Phoenix, it’s just fluky enough to fuel some serious conspiracy tweeting. Think about it. The Suns want to trade Kevin Durant, and are looking for major draft compensation. The Rockets need a scorer in the mold of Kevin Durant, and hold Phoenix’s draft pick. Kevin Durant wants to go to a winning team and happens to be from Texas? Theories of a league machination pretty much write themselves. Especially after an inexplicable trade made earlier this season by the…
2. Dallas Mavericks — I had real difficultly picking between this and the number one on this list, and I’m still not sure it shouldn’t be an outright tie, but the Dallas Mavericks landing the number one pick in the draft after trading away their franchise superstar for a baffling trade return would be sure to test Twitter/X’s server capacity. This would a be an almost perfect melding of tin foil hats and online outrage as the Mavericks have a 1.8% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, somewhat mirroring the conspiracy talk around Cleveland’s luck back in 2014, only tripled in furor/confusion/consternation. Add into the equation that Maverick’s GM/Public Enemy Nico Harrison is still employed in Dallas, and there’s no way this conversation doesn’t rage out of control and far beyond the bounds of human decency. For example: can you imagine what would happen if Harrison then turned right around and traded that pick in a win now move?! It feels like a real possibility.
1. San Antonio Spurs — Look, I don’t know how to break this to y’all, but the Spurs are not exactly beloved league-wide. They made a lot of enemies in their two decades of contention, and landing Victor Wembanyama did not lessen the cacophony of hatred. This outcome would be rage-bait in the extreme. You’re talking about the Spurs winning the no-doubt number one pick twice in three years, somehow managing to skip the year without a potential franchise icon, and doing it with less than a 7% chance in the lottery? That Wemby went down with a blood clot, and Gregg Popovich with a stroke would only add to the idea of league sympathy, or that the league wants to build around Wemby as the new face of the league. And heaven forbid the Spurs somehow land Cooper Flagg with Atlanta’s .7% chance. At least there would be some measure of empathy for Mavericks’ fans if they landed it. But for a San Antonio franchise that appears from the outside to be perpetually blessed, this would be nothing less than a declaration of war on the happiness of NBA fans at large. If this goes down, prepare to be despised at a level that only the Heatles and Durant-era-Warriors can compare to.
That’s all I’ve got for now. If you want to come up with own power rankings in the comments, feel free. I’m sure there are scenarios I haven’t even considered.
