The Indiana Pacers and Tyrese Haliburton have Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers on the ropes in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Indiana stormed back from a seven-point deficit in the final minute to beat the Cavs in Game 2, taking a commanding 2-0 series lead as things now shift to Indiana for Games 3 and 4. The Cavs, the No. 1 seed in the East, are in extreme danger of getting bounced in the second round for the second consecutive season.
Mitchell has done all he can from a scoring standpoint, but Darius Garland (toe) has yet to play in this series and Evan Mobley, Garland and De’Andre Hunter all did not play in Game 2. That’s put the Cavs in a tough spot, as they need to win four of the next five games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Oddsmakers have Cleveland favored by a small margin in Game 3, but can bettors really trust this Cavs team with so many players on the injury report?
Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, including the latest odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for the winner of Game 3.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Cavs Injury Report
Pacers Injury Report
Cleveland Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bet
Mitchell has been asked to carry the scoring load for the Cavs with Garland and Mobley banged up, and his usage is off the charts.
Mitchell has taken 30 shots in each of his games in this series, scoring 33 points in Game 1 and 48 points in Game 2. He was able to get to the line for 21 free-throw attempts in Game 2.
I expect another heavy workload for Mitchell on Friday, especially since the Cavs are in a must-win scenario. Mitchell has four games this postseason with 30 or more points, and the only reason he didn’t clear this prop in the final two games against Miami was because the Cavs went up by so much.
In what should be a closer game, Mitchell is going to get up all the shots he can handle on Friday night.
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
Pascal Siakam got off to a fast start in the playoffs, scoring 24 or more points in each of his first three games, but he’s failed to score more than 17 points in a game since.
The Cavs are a tougher matchup for Siakam than the Milwaukee Bucks because of their rim protection – especially if Evan Mobley plays – and the Pacers forward has been a bit of an afterthought in the offense as of late.
After taking 15 or more shots in each of his first three playoff games this season, Siakam is averaging just 11.3 shots per game since, taking a postseason-low eight shots in Game 2.
With this prop still pushing 20 points, I’ll take the UNDER for the former All-Star.
I cannot trust this Cleveland team with so many injuries.
Even if Garland, Mobley and Hunter are able to suit up on Friday, it’s pretty clear that none of them are at 100 percent.
Now, they have to play a Pacers team that loves an uptempo game and has already ran on Cleveland – and won twice – in back-to-back road games to open this series.
The Pacers – as I mentioned before Game 2 – are being disrespected in this series. They made the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2023-24 season and won 50 games this season, yet it seemed oddsmakers penciled the Cavs into a series win.
Since the start of 2025, the Pacers are 40-15 straight up, and they are 32-12 straight up at home in the 2024-25 campaign (playoffs and regular season).
Cleveland’s offense was elite against the Miami Heat in the first round, but now it has turned into the Donovan Mitchell show, as he’s attempted 30 or more shots in each of the first two games in this series – out of necessity.
A damning stat for the Cavs? Mitchell’s teams are now 1-6 when he takes 30 or more shots in a playoff game.
The Pacers should be favored to win Game 3, so I’ll gladly back them at this price.
Pick: Pacers Moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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