Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead on Sunday against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
This Western Conference semifinal matchup has been a strange one, as OKC dropped Games 1 and 3 in frustrating fashion but also won by 43 points in Game 2.
Meanwhile, Denver continues to find a way to win close games, and the Nuggets have done it in this series without elite play from Nikola Jokic, who actually has more turnovers (21) than assists (18).
Despite Denver winning Game 3 and being at home for this Game 4 clash, oddsmakers have set the Thunder as six-point favorites on the road. Can OKC avoid the dreaded 3-1 series deficit and even this matchup before heading home for Game 5?
Or, will Denver get one step closer to another Western Conference Finals berth in the Jokic era?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my game prediction for Game 4.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Thunder Injury Report
Nuggets Injury Report
Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has not shot the ball well this postseason, but he is doing the little things, averaging 6.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game.
On Sunday, in a must win for OKC, I’m backing SGA’s rebounds and assists prop, which he has easily cleared twice in this series.
In Game 1 (in nearly 40 minutes), SGA put up 10 rebounds and eight assists in a Thunder loss. He only played 30 minutes in Game 2, but still finished with 12 combined rebounds and assists.
Then, in another heavy-minute game (44:48) in Game 3, SGA put up 13 rebounds and seven dimes.
With the Thunder playing with their backs against the wall in Game 4, I expect another night of big minutes for SGA on Sunday, which should help him soar past this number. Last season, SGA routinely was around this line in the playoffs, averaging 7.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game.
Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet
It’s really hard to count out or fade Nikola Jokic in any scenario, but the Thunder have really limited the Denver Nuggets star as a passer in this series.
Jokic hasn’t picked up more than six assists in a single game against OKC, and he actually has more turnovers (21) than assists (18) overall. That’s very uncharacteristic for the three-time league MVP, but I expect more struggles to come in this department in Game 4.
OKC was fourth in the NBA in opponent assists per game in the regular season, and it appears the Thunder want to force Jokic to be a scorer, as he’s attempted 25 or more shots in two of the three games in this matchup.
Plus, Jokic has failed to pick up nine assists in five straight, dating back to Game 6 of the first round.
This series has been tough to gauge, as OKC looked like the much better team in Game 2, but outside of that it has struggled – especially in crunch time.
The Thunder played just 24 clutch games during the regular season (inside five points in the final five minutes), and they went just 16-8 in those matchups.
While that’s not a terrible record, it’s worth noting that OKC has not played in a ton of tight games, and the Nuggets have arguably the best closer in the NBA in Jokic.
Also, Denver is now 4-3 against the spread as a home underdog this season and has covered/won many games as an underdog in this postseason after being set as the lesser team on multiple occasions against the Los Angeles Clippers.
While the Game 2 loss was bad for the Nuggets (similar to their Game 3 loss to L.A.), they have actually played a ton of close games this postseason.
I think this spread is a little disrespectful to a team with the best player in the world at home. OKC also has shown over the last two seasons that it struggles in the playoffs when Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t play at an MVP level.
Denver has slowed him down in these playoffs, and I think it can at least keep Game 4 close on Sunday.
Pick: Nuggets +6 (-105 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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