Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge have dominated the MVP conversation in recent years and the two MLB superstars are in contention once again in 2025. Ohtani is tied for the National League lead with 12 home runs already this season, while Judge leads all of baseball with 14 homers and would be the AL Triple Crown winner if the season ended today. However, sportsbooks have baked their power into their MLB home run odds, with Ohtani priced at +225 to hit a home run on Sunday at Caesars, while Judge is listed at +190.
Any given day, dependent on the matchup and the MLB weather forecast, you might be compelled to try your hand at using Ohtani or Judge in your MLB HR picks. However, that kind of pricing can make it hard to build an MLB home run parlay with a sizable payout. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in five of the last nine days and is up 33.8 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 33 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +17456 odds and would pay out $877.80 on a $5 bet at FanDuel.
Matt Olson, Braves (+450)
Olson is in his 10th big-league season and he’s already hit 266 career home runs, including a 54-homer year in 2023 to lead the MLB. He’s hit at least 29 home runs in all six of his full seasons in the MLB and he belted his seventh home run of the year on Saturday in Pittsburgh.
On Sunday, he’ll take on Pirates righty Carmen Mlodzinski, who has a 6.16 ERA on the season and gave up two home runs against the Cardinals in his last start. Olson has hit six of his seven homers against right-handed pitching this year and he has a .881 OPS against righties in his career. He’ll also have a slight breeze blowing out to right field on a warm day and FanDuel has the best MLB HR odds for Olson.
Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees (+500)
The 37-year-old is coming off the worst offensive season of his career, but he’s looked rejuvenated hitting in Yankee Stadium in a loaded lineup. He’s slashing .340/.391/.476 on the year and has eight doubles to go along with four home runs in 39 games. He’ll match up with Luis Severino of the Athletics in Sacramento on Sunday and he should benefit from conditions friendly to right-handed hitters.
The wind is expected to blow out to left field at 13 mph with game-time temperatures in the mid-70s and low humidity. Goldschmidt is 1-for-2 with a home run and a walk in his career off Severino and all four of the home runs that the right-hander has surrendered this year have come at home. DraftKings has the best price here.
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (+460)
Mountcastle hit 33 home runs during his rookie season in 2021 and hasn’t quite been able to reach that level since, but he’s still a capable hitter whose power plays up against left-handed pitching. The Angles will send lefty Tyler Anderson to the mound on Sunday and he’s been extremely prone to giving up the longball despite having a solid season overall. Anderson has a 2.68 ERA in 2025 but has given up seven home runs over 40 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Mountcastle sports an .821 career OPS against left-handed pitching and slugs 64 points higher against lefties (.488) than he does against righties (.424). He only has a .581 OPS and two home runs on the season, but we’re making a positive regression play here because of strong underlying peripherals that include a career-high 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 52.1% hard-hit contact rate. FanDuel has the best price once again.
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 100-50 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 29-19 over his last 48 MLB sides picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Sunday.
