One year ago, the Rockets jumped up from the NBA’s No. 9 pre-lottery odds slot to land a top-four draft pick (Reed Sheppard). Can they defy the odds again on Monday night?
In one of the most important dates on the offseason calendar, the NBA holds its annual draft lottery on Monday night from the league’s draft combine in Chicago. The event finalizes the first-round pick order for the 2025 draft, which will be held on June 25 (first round) and June 26 (second round).
Some lottery choices have already been traded elsewhere (or perhaps conditionally, depending on the final draft slot). Meanwhile, others could be traded prior to draft day in late June. But the weighted lottery is conducted based on the previous-season records of each non-playoff team that the 2025 pick initially belonged to.
The lottery determines only the first four selections. The No. 5 pick onward goes in order of season record (2024-25 standings) among the remaining teams, with the worst going first. Tiebreakers have already been conducted. While the weighted lottery gives some preference to teams with the worst records, the odds aren’t nearly as stacked in favor of bad teams as they once were — since the NBA wants to minimize potential incentives for teams to lose.
The Rockets had the NBA’s fourth-best record this season at 52-30, but they still own a 2025 lottery selection because of a previous trade involving the Brooklyn Nets and draft equity from the Phoenix Suns (who finished last season at 36-46 and enter with the No. 9 odds slot).
In 2024, Houston held the identical No. 9 slot with a pick conveyed from the Nets before defying the odds to land one of those four lottery drawn selections. The Rockets ultimately stayed at No. 3 and drafted Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard.
When and How to Watch
- Date: Monday, May 12
- Time: 6 p.m. CDT
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Live Stream: Fubo TV (free trial) or Watch ESPN with active subscription
How the Draft Lottery Works
For each of the four lottery picks, starting with No. 1, an NBA staffer pulls out four ping-pong balls from a hopper. Each ball has a number on it. There are 1,001 potential combinations, and the team with the matching four-digit combination earns each pick.
The weighted lottery gives more combinations to teams with worse records, and a team cannot win twice. Thus, if a franchise that hypothetically received the No. 1 pick was again drawn for No. 2, that result would be ignored and another drawing held for that pick. Further details regarding the process are available at NBA.com.
The Rockets will have two designed lottery representatives at Chicago’s McCormick Place. One will physically be in the private lottery room, where the drawing itself occurs about an hour before the televised broadcast. The other representative will be on stage and awaiting the reveal, along with viewers. In 2024, Sam Strantz (associate general counsel) was in the room itself, while Ime Udoka (head coach) was on stage.
As of Sunday night, the 2025 representatives for each team had yet to be revealed.
First-Round Odds for Rockets (via Phoenix)
- No. 1: 3.8%
- No. 2: 4.1%
- No. 3: 4.5%
- No. 4: 4.9%
Cumulative top-four odds: 17.3%
- No. 9: 50.7%
- No. 10: 28.3%
- No. 11: 3.5%
- No. 12: 0.1%
(pick odds via Tankathon)
Probabilities by Team
Pre-lottery odds matrix for 2025 NBA draft
May 2025 Mock Drafts, Top Prospects
Check out Tankathon’s latest 2025 NBA draft big board for statistics and additional information on potential first-round prospects.
Recently published mock drafts are available from The Athletic, CBS Sports, The Ringer, Bleacher Report, and ESPN, among numerous publications.
