The Monday NBA playoff schedule features a two-game slate with the New York Knicks hosting the Boston Celtics at 7:30 p.m. ET and the Golden State Warriors hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves at 10 p.m. ET. The Knicks lead their Eastern Conference semifinal series 2-1, while the Timberwolves lead their Western Conference semifinal series 2-1. Boston beat New York 115-93 in Game 3 on the road. Minnesota has won two straight after dropping Game 1 to Golden State. Stephen Curry (hamstring) remains out for the Warriors.
The Celtics are favored by 6.5 points and the over/under is 208.5 points in their game with the Knicks, while the Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites and the over/under is 200.5 points in their matchup with the Warriors. Before making any NBA picks or building any NBA parlay cards, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
The model has broken down the NBA odds for Monday and just revealed its top picks and NBA player props. Combining the model’s three picks into an NBA parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook would result in a payout of +507 (risk $100 to win $507). Now, here are its best bets for the NBA playoff schedule on Monday:
Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors should benefit from home court advantage, but it’s likely not enough to account for the absence of Stephen Curry, who remains out with a hamstring injury. Minnesota won both games in this series that Curry missed. The model is projecting a final score of 106-99 in Minnesota’s favor, with the Timberwolves covering in 55% of computer simulations.
This parlay is utilizing DraftKings, but FanDuel Sportsbook is among the books with this line at -5. Bet it now at FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets on a $5 bet.
Kristaps Porzingis over 8.5 points
Porzingis is averaging 9.1 points per game during the postseason, but is averaging only 4.3 points per game in Boston’s series against the Knicks. The model is calling for a significant uptick in production for the 29-year-old center in Game 4. The model is projecting Porzingis to finish with 12 points in Game 4 on Monday.
Jayson Tatum under 10.5 rebounds
Tatum is averaging 12.0 rebounds per game during the Celtics’ current postseason run. He is averaging 13.0 rebounds per game against the Knicks through three games. The model is calling for a significant dip in production for Tatum in Game 4 with the former Duke standout projected to finish with 8.2 rebounds, according to SportsLine’s model.
Combine these picks for a shot at a +507 payout at DraftKings. Bet it now at DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly when you wager $5.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s NBA playoff best bets for Monday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 125-94-1 roll on his last 220 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 21 units.
