The Mavericks‘ stunning jump to win the NBA Draft Lottery despite entering with only a 1.8% chance to do so was the story of the night, but the Jazz, Wizards and Hornets falling proved to be a major subplot in arguably the most dramatic lottery ever.
Utah (17-65), Washington (18-64) and Charlotte (19-63) had the three worst records in the NBA and, in turn, shared the best odds to land the No. 1 pick, each with 14%.
Utah and Washington then watched with dismay as the following happened:
- The Wizards got the No. 6 pick, their worst possible outcome. They had an 80% chance to land in the top five.
- The Jazz got the No. 5 pick, also their worst possible outcome. They had a 52.1% chance to land in the top four.
- The Hornets got the No. 4 pick, roughly their median outcome. They, like the Jazz, had a 52.1% chance to land in the top four.
The Jazz’s fall to No. 5 continues a disheartening trend for the NBA’s worst team: Since the NBA changed its lottery odds in 2019, no team with the league’s worst record has gone on to win the lottery.
On one hand, the 2019 change seems to be working as intended: From 1993-2018, the NBA gave the league’s worst team a 25% chance to win the lottery. However, the league approved changing the odds format in order to discourage tanking and resting players.
Perhaps karma came for the Jazz, who were, after all, fined $100,000 for violating the league’s player participation policy during the season for resting star Lauri Markkanen.
On the other hand, the Jazz have never moved up in the draft lottery, which was instituted in 1985, nor have they ever had the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. This is their second straight year moving back in the lottery. They had the eighth-best odds in 2024 but ended up with the No. 10 pick, with which they selected shooting guard Cody Williams out of Colorado.
