What’s next for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks?

Barring a championship run by the Milwaukee Bucks this season — or at least something closely resembling one — Giannis Antetokounmpo was always destined to be at the center of the NBA conversation this summer.

But when his Bucks went out in such devastating fashion late last month — falling short in the first round for the third consecutive season, in five games to the same Indiana Pacers team that sent them packing the year before, after Antetokounmpo’s co-star, Damian Lillard, went down with an Achilles tendon tear that derailed both their current and contingency plans — it was safe to assume the situation might escalate more quickly than expected.

So here we are.

It’s not even June, and there are very real signs that Antetokounmpo — the two-time MVP who led the Bucks to their first title in 50 years in 2021 — is seriously pondering the prospect of pushing his way out of Milwaukee.

While league sources say the 30-year-old has not asked for a trade, ESPN reported on Monday that Antetokounmpo is “open-minded” to the idea of playing elsewhere and prepared to consider other options outside of the Bucks.

The timing of it was hardly surprising, as the update came just hours before the NBA Draft Lottery that could play a part in this calculus if Antetokounmpo does ultimately ask out. It was an informal declaration to all (29) of the interested teams that now is the time to get all of your ducks in a row when it comes to potential offers for Antetokounmpo, who is signed through the summer of 2027 and has a player option worth $62.7 million for the 2027-28 campaign. The question now is whether this is the beginning of the end for the Bucks or whether there is still a chance of Milwaukee convincing Antetokounmpo that he should stay.

So what happens next? Bucks writer Eric Nehm and NBA insiders David Aldridge and Sam Amick gathered to discuss.

Nehm: It’s worth noting that this is not the first time the Bucks have heard their time with Antetokounmpo has run out.

As Antetokounmpo considered signing his first supermax extension in 2020, he made the Bucks work for it. Even after the team traded for Jrue Holiday to signal it was serious about putting together a roster talented enough to compete for the franchise’s first championship since 1971, Antetokounmpo started training camp without putting pen to paper and went through multiple meetings about the front office’s plans.

In the summer of 2023, Antetokounmpo told The New York Times’ Tania Ganguli that he would be forced to consider a future outside of Milwaukee if the Bucks couldn’t prove they were still pushing as hard as possible for championships. Sure enough, Bucks general manager Jon Horst swung a stunning deal for Damian Lillard less than a month later, and Antetokounmpo promptly signed another supermax extension to keep him in Milwaukee through at least the 2026-27 season.

In both those situations, Horst leveraged future assets and found enough draft capital to acquire top-end talent. That isn’t likely this time around, however, as the Bucks have used almost all of those assets in the previous two situations and now can only add additional pick swaps to their 2026, ’28 and ’30 first-round picks or trade one of their first-round picks in either 2031 or 2032. Pulling off a trade big enough to appease Antetokounmpo’s desire to compete for a second championship in 2026 may end up being impossible and leave the Bucks forced to contemplate other plans for contention moving forward.

With a blockbuster trade hard to imagine, where do you feel that leaves the Bucks, DA?

Aldridge: Let me be as clear as possible on this. I want Giannis Antetokounmpo to finish his career in Milwaukee. There are few stories as meaningful to the notion of the NBA that I believe is the best version of the NBA than a young player coming to a small or mid-market team, discovering his greatest potential and winning in front of a fan base that understands, better than any in New York or L.A., what it’s really like to struggle, what it’s really like to not be viewed as a marquee franchise. I believe Giannis wants to stay in Milwaukee — but, understandably, doesn’t want to waste the rest of his prime in service to a team that isn’t good enough to contend.

The problem Antetokounmpo has is that the Bucks have done nearly everything he’s asked over the years by surrounding him with players or coaches that he wanted in the hunt for a first, and then, a second title. That most of the moves haven’t yet worked, or even come close, isn’t the Greek Freak’s fault, of course. His play remains above reproach. But they haven’t worked. And they don’t leave Milwaukee with a lot of runway to take yet another big swing.

No one is going to take on the rest of Dame’s latest extension — $54.1 million next season, followed by a $58.4 million player option for 2026-27. Maybe, if Lillard were healthy, the Bucks could engage the Phoenix Suns on Bradley Beal. But Beal, I am pretty confident, would not waive his no-trade clause to go to Milwaukee. And with next to no leaguewide interest in Kyle Kuzma, at $22 million next season, that’s $130 million next season for three guys on a team that just got bounced by Indiana in the first round.

Yes, the Bucks got under the second apron by moving Khris Middleton and rookie A.J. Johnson to the Washington Wizards for Kuzma, but it doesn’t make them any more capable than before of pulling off a difference-making trade. And, yes, if Brook Lopez leaves in free agency, that relieves a little more pressure financially — but then, Milwaukee would need to find a starting center.

And, you can’t keep firing coaches.

So, Eric’s “gap year” idea makes sense. The Bucks could also work along the margins to see if they can pry away one of the Brooklyn Nets’ four first-round picks in this year’s draft, or one of the Utah Jazz’s two (the other one, not the good one).

As Eric wrote on Monday, Steph Curry’s Golden State Warriors took a back seat, waiting for Klay Thompson (and Curry) to recover from injuries in the 2020-21 season. But Golden State had also uncovered a gem in Jordan Poole at the back end (28th) of the first round in 2019. The “two tracks” plan of James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody didn’t work, but Poole was instrumental to that 2022 championship team.

The Bucks have to be intentional, in my view, in getting back into this year’s draft to add someone late in the first round who could potentially become a contributor when Lillard returns. Maybe that means sacrificing someone like Green, which would be hard to do, I grant you. He’s certainly made himself part of the team’s future. But he’s going to be expensive to keep after next year. And the need to get more cost-effective rotation players to surround Giannis going forward is paramount.

Amick: For the sake of fairness to Giannis, let’s reiterate one key detail here: He hasn’t asked out yet. League sources say he has been in fact-finding mode, discussing his situation with trusted confidantes while making it clear that he’s reading the room here. This is not a one-foot-out-the-door situation. Not yet, anyway.

But from my vantage point, it seems the bread crumbs were laid out in a pretty unmistakable manner these past few years. Every time there was a choice to be made about his future, and a contract negotiation tied to it, Horst was able to make the kind of move that, in essence, made his decision for him. That’s just not an option this time around.

What’s more, the Lillard injury made a challenging situation even worse. As we reported earlier this month, the prospect of trading Lillard this summer as a way of reshaping the roster yet again was expected to be discussed if he had stayed healthy. We’ll never know where those talks might have led, but they’re out of the question now.

Eric, you make good and relevant points about the “gap year” pitch to Giannis. And from what I’m hearing, it sounds like there are real changes that could be made in terms of style of play that would resonate with him. More specifically, there were lessons learned from the latest Pacers series that he’d like to see applied (if he stays, of course). Indiana’s frenetic pace, devastating ball movement and clear delineation of roles up and down the roster caused major problems for the Bucks’ defense. There’s a belief that it could be, in some form, replicated in Milwaukee.

Conversely, now is the time for Giannis to get clarity on what all of the interested teams might be able to put together if he came their way, as well as what might remain if they pull off a trade. It’s widely known that the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs have the goods, and the gall, to get something done that might allow the Bucks to rebuild in a meaningful, competitive way. The New York Knicks and the Nets are expected to be in the running if these sweepstakes become an actual thing.

The Dallas Mavericks — somehow — landed the No. 1 pick on Monday night and could now entertain the prospect of putting it on the table for someone of Antetokounmpo’s ilk. We have previously reported that Mavericks GM Nico Harrison, architect of the Luka Dončić trade, is expected to be in win-now/defense-wins-championships/Nike-superstar mode again this summer. Giannis checks all of those boxes.

Antetokounmpo, who has been known to be a dream target of the Warriors for a long time, made a late-night appearance at Curry’s party in San Francisco during All-Star weekend. Warriors officials on hand took (gleeful) notice — including fellow attendee, Golden State owner Joe Lacob. Draymond Green and Kevon Looney were part of the get-together as well.

Giannis and Steph, it should be noted, are both represented by the same Octagon agency. Still, it was a Warriors-centric event with one notable, and very large, exception. And while Golden State is deeply invested in its Jimmy Butler era at the moment, the reality about a player like Antetokounmpo is that his greatness could compel nearly every owner and GM in the league to adjust their plan.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Despite the spotlight turning Antetokounmpo’s way on Monday, we’re not there just yet.

The next move, or non-move, is on him.

(Photo: John Fisher / Getty Images)

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