Every year, the Dodgers are supposed to have a pitching staff that is the absolute envy of the major leagues, and every year, they’re piece-mealing this thing together. They didn’t even make it to the summer this time, losing both Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell to shoulder injuries by April, with Roki Sasaki following them to the IL this week with a right shoulder impingement, leaving the Dodgers woefully short on MLB-caliber arms.
But reinforcements are coming, of course. Tony Gonsolin is already back in the rotation and looking as good as ever, and he’ll be followed in short order by Clayton Kershaw, who will make his season debut Saturday, the team announced Tuesday.
Kershaw is coming back from knee and toe surgeries this offseason, but he’s back quite a bit sooner than I expected. The key question here is, “How much does the 37-year-old have left in the tank?” And, unfortunately, with all respect due to the best starting pitcher of this generation, I’m not sure we should be expecting much.
Now, it’s worth noting that betting against the future Hall-of-Famer hasn’t gone too well in recent years. While he has had a lot of trouble staying healthy, Kershaw has mostly managed to remain extremely effective, running a 2.37 ERA in 258 combined innings in 2022 and 2023. But he wasn’t able to get back to that level in 2024, and on his minor-league rehab assignment this season, his velocity is down another couple of ticks, to 87.5 mph. It didn’t matter much against overmatched minor-leaguers, as Kershaw had a 2.57 ERA in his 21 innings across five starts, but he also managed just 16 strikeouts in those 21 innings, including just eight in 12 innings at Triple-A.
That doesn’t mean Kershaw can’t be effective, of course – his control figures to remain precise, and maybe he can keep runs off the board with some combination of elite command and veteran guile. But I’m worried Kershaw is going to have to work extra hard just to keep his head above water this time, and his chances of being a meaningful difference-maker for Fantasy are awfully low as a result.
I hope I’m wrong. I’d love to eat my words on this one – I’ll be rooting for myself to be wrong. But I can’t suggest Kershaw as a run-out-and-add-him Fantasy target at this point in his career. It just feels like asking too much.
Here’s what else you need to know about from Tuesday’s action around MLB:
Wednesday’s top waiver-wire targets
Logan Henderson, SP, Brewers (23%) – Henderson started to gain a bit of hype this spring, and then that exploded with his brilliant MLB debut when he struck out nine over six one-run innings against the Athletics. He went back down to Triple-A after that one, where he has a 2.40 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate in 30 innings, and now he’s getting another chance against the Guardians Wednesday. That’s not the easiest matchup, but his excellent changeup should help neutralize the Guardians left-handed bats, and after his dominant first turn, I think you’ve got to add him just in case there’s something real here. Can he force the Brewers to keep him up for good this time? I’m rooting for it.
Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (70%) – It’s been so hard to figure out who Jung is because he’s missed so much time, but we’ve seen him be a very useful power-hitting Fantasy option in the past and he’s looking like one again right now. He clubbed a pair of three-run homers Tuesday, giving him four in the past seven games, and now has his season-long OPS up to .807. Jung’s .497 expected slugging percentage suggests that it isn’t a fluke, either, and his power should play in any type of Fantasy league at this point.
Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (57%) – Baez’s resurgence has been one of the most unexpected developments of the season. And one of the most fun. After three mostly disastrous seasons to kick off his Detroit career – Baez hit .221/.262/.347 in his first three seasons with the Tigers, in case you forgot – Baez has been one of the team’s best players this season, playing multiple positions (including center field!) and enjoying an offensive resurgence. I don’t see much in the underlying numbers to suggest there’s much going on here – his .291 xwOBA is better than any season since he left Chicago but still pretty bad – but he just keeps hitting, including two homers Tuesday. All five of his homers for the season have come in the past 14 games, during which time he has 23 RBI and a very strong 11% barrel. The likeliest outcome here is Baez inevitably flames out, but it’s been fun while it’s happening.
Yimi Garcia, RP, Blue Jays (10%) – I don’t necessarily think Jeff Hoffman is totally finished as the Blue Jays closer, but they’ve gotta give him a chance to reset after yet another blown save Thursday. This one was an epic meltdown, as Hoffman gave up five runs on a walk and four hits, and he now has a 24.75 ERA in the month of May. He’s still getting plenty of strikeouts and has a minuscule walk rate, so I think eventually he’ll be fine. But The Blue Jays have to give Garcia a shot here for at least a few tries until Hoffman gets right.
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves (16%) – Is Baldwin going to force some tough conversations in Atlanta? He struggled to make an impact when Sean Murphy was out, but the process always looked good – he had a good approach at the plate (especially for a rookie!) and was hitting the ball hard even when he wasn’t getting the results. Well, the results are there now. He went 3 for 4 with a home run Tuesday, his fourth of the season and second in his past six games to push his season-long line to .329/.382/.557. As a rookie catcher. I think on a pure talent level, Baldwin is right there with Agustin Ramirez or Ivan Herrera, but obviously, the playing time is going to be much harder to come by. But in a deeper two-catcher league, I think he’s a good enough hitter to be worth rostering even in the smaller side of a timeshare. And that share might just keep growing.
Connor Norby, 3B, Marlins (36%) – Norby is starting to do it again. He was a productive hitter despite pretty underwhelming quality of contact metrics last season, and now he finds himself with a .749 OPS for the season after he homered and tripled in Thursday’s game against the Cubs. He has hit safely in eight straight games with a homer and two steals in that span, and he continues to do a good job of hitting the ball in the air to the pull side, maximizing his otherwise middling raw power. I don’t think Norby is much more than a mid-.700s OPS bat, but he has nine homers and seven steals in 58 games since getting to Miami last season, a 24-homer, 18-steal pace. That’ll play in most category leagues.
