Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Friday, May 16
The Knicks return home to Madison Square Garden with a 3-2 series lead over the Celtics and a chance to close things out. Boston will once again be without Jayson Tatum on my 35th birthday. That creates significant shifts in usage, shot volume and playmaking responsibility across the roster. I’ve identified four player prop values I’m targeting in Game Six, each backed by matchup data, historical splits without Tatum, and strong indicators from Game Five, when I went 6-2 for +6.35 units. As always, I transparently share my plays on this pick sheet.
These aren’t narrative plays or gut picks — they’re rooted in role changes, statistical trends and minute projections. Let’s break them down.
Jaylen Brown Over 32.5 Points + Assists (-105, DraftKings)
Jaylen Brown fully embraced his role as the Celtics’ offensive engine in Game Five, delivering an all-around gem with 26 points on 9-of-17 shooting and a career-high 12 assists in 37 minutes. His passing was impactful — 33.4% of his 37 passes resulted in assists, a remarkably high conversion rate that speaks to the quality of looks he created with an elite volume (18 potential assists). He also led the team in rebounding chances (16) and secured eight boards, further emphasizing how central he’s become to everything Boston is doing without Jayson Tatum.
Brown continues to elevate his play in the wake of Tatum’s season-ending Achilles injury. Over the last two seasons — regular season and playoffs — he’s averaged 27.4 points and 5.3 assists in 34.3 minutes per game with Tatum out. This year alone, his usage rate rises by 4.01% (to 33.1%) and his assist rate spikes by 9.04% (to 29.6%) with Tatum off the floor, both of which lead the team. He’s taken on the burden willingly, and in this must-win Game Six, the Celtics will lean on him once again.
One of the most encouraging signs from Game Five was Brown’s decision-making on drives. He attacked the rim 15 times — a slight bump from his 13.5 average in the first four games and passed out of those drives seven times, generating three assists. That’s a clear shift from earlier in the series, where he averaged just 0.5 assists on 2.5 passes per drive. He’s seeing the floor better, trusting teammates and distributing with purpose while also shooting the ball efficiently.
Brown is dedicating the rest of the series to Tatum, and his effort on both ends has reflected that. Coming off a 26-point, 12-assist performance, this line still gives us room for value. In a Game Six where Boston’s season is on the line, I’m backing the reigning Finals MVP to rise to the moment again.
Jrue Holiday Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106, FanDuel)
Jrue Holiday will see an expanded role without Tatum, and this combo line remains too low given his usage, efficiency and versatility. In Game Five, despite early foul trouble that limited his minutes in the first half, Holiday still cleared this line with room to spare, finishing with 14 points on 5-of-8 shooting, seven rebounds (on 16 chances), and three assists (on 10 potential).
Over the past two seasons — including both regular season and playoffs — Holiday has averaged 14.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists in 31.7 minutes per game when Tatum has been out. This season specifically, he’s seen a 1.6% usage rate increase and a 1.2% rebound rate bump without Tatum, and he’s consistently looked comfortable stepping into more of a secondary scoring and facilitating role when needed.
Game Five served as a great example of Holiday’s ability to impact the game in all phases, even with limited volume. He took just eight shots but converted efficiently, crashed the glass, and made smart reads in the halfcourt. With Boston’s season still hanging in the balance and Tatum not returning, expect Holiday to again log 35+ minutes and contribute across the stat sheet. I like him to hit this over again in Game Six.
Derrick White Over 20.5 Points (-115, Caesars)
Derrick White was on fire in Game Five. He poured in 34 points on 9-of-16 shooting, including a scorching 7-of-13 from beyond the arc — an elite shooting performance built on the back of high-quality opportunities.
Oddsmakers are taking notice, hanging a 4.5 made threes prop on White — the kind of line typically reserved for elite gunners like Steph Curry. That’s a big respect indicator. While I’m not ready to chase that number on made threes, I do love his overall scoring outlook. White has averaged 20.9 points per game without Tatum over the last two seasons (including regular season and playoffs), and he’s seen a 3.43% usage rate bump this season with Tatum off the floor.
In Game Five, White benefited from Boston’s spacing-heavy offense and their drive-and-kick principles. He went 5-of-6 on wide-open threes (defender 6+ feet away) and 1-of-4 on open threes (defender 4–6 feet), meaning 10 of his 13 attempts were clean looks. He scored 15 of his points on catch-and-shoot chances, going 5-of-8 from three on those opportunities — a slight uptick from his 12 points per game on catch-and-shoot looks over the first four games.
White should continue to be a major beneficiary of Tatum’s absence. The Celtics trust him to make shots in rhythm, and as long as those clean looks keep coming, he’ll have every chance to hit this number again.
Payton Pritchard Over 17.5 Points + Assists (-115, Caesars)
Despite a tough shooting night in Game Five, Payton Pritchard’s role and usage continue to scream value. He logged 39 minutes off the bench, went 6-of-17 from the field (5-of-14 from three) for 17 points and added three assists on eight potential dimes. That sets the stage for another strong spot in Game Six.
Since the start of last season, Pritchard has averaged 19.8 points and 5.8 assists in 32.1 minutes across 20 games without Tatum. With Tatum off the floor, he’s seen a 2.8% usage rate increase and a 5.25% bump in assist rate, and he’s expected to be heavily involved once again in this elimination game.
In Game Five, Pritchard went 3-of-7 on wide-open threes (defender 6+ feet away) and 2-of-4 on open threes (4–6 feet). The Celtics’ spacing ensures he’ll continue to get clean looks. He also attempted a team-high 10 catch-and-shoot field goals, but converted just 20% of them, well below his usual efficiency. Even with that off night, he’s shooting 36% on catch-and-shoot looks in this series and 43.6% in the playoffs, after hitting 44.5% in the regular season.
In short, Pritchard has a green light, his minutes are secure, and he’s due for positive regression on those catch-and-shoot attempts. After posting 17 points and three assists in Game Five despite inefficiency in both areas, this number still holds strong value, and the upside is clearly there.
