Patience is a virtue. It can be hard to actually remember that in the moment, but then, it wouldn’t be a virtue if it was easy, would it?
Brandon Lowe came into the season with pretty big expectations thanks to the Rays‘ new home in the homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, and while you didn’t have to wait long for his first homer (he hit it on the third day of the season), Lowe was pretty bad for most of the first month of the season. Longer, in fact – he had an OPS below .600 as recently as the start of Thursday’s game.
He finally got over that ignominious threshold with his two-homer performance against the Blue Jays Thursday, and now has seven hits over his past three games, raising his season-long OPS by nearly 100 points as a result. It’s a limited track record of success, but it is, I think, the start of Lowe being well worth the wait.
Partially, my optimism comes from the fact that Lowe’s underlying metrics have been right where we wanted them to be all along. He entered Thursday’s game with a .262 wOBA but with a .337 expected wOBA, one of the biggest gaps in baseball. Lowe has been hitting the ball hard all along – 91.9 mph average exit velocity, 44.6% hard-hit rate, 10.9% barrel rate – and has been elevating to his pull side well – career-high 27.7% pulled-air rate – and we’ve been waiting for the results to follow.
They finally are, and Lowe has spent the past few days making up for lost time. I don’t think he’s going to stop anytime soon, so if he’s still available in your league, now might be your last chance to add him. He’s still one of the best sources of power at the second base position.
Here’s what else you need to know from Thursday’s action:
Friday’s top waiver-wire targets
Josh Lowe, OF, Rays (67%) – Lowe has had a tough time since his 2023 breakout, with each of his last two seasons derailed more or less before they even began by injuries. This time around, it was an oblique injury on Opening Day that cost Lowe more than a month and a half, but he was back Thursday, looking no worse for the wear. Lowe was back in the leadoff spot for the Rays against the Blue Jays and went 3 for 5 with a homer. Lowe had a solid second half in 2024 and was looking to build on, it so hopefully he’s put the injuries behind him and can live up to his former hype.
AJ Smith-Shawver, SP, Braves (73%) – Smith-Shawver’s splitter might be a real game-changer. He didn’t have that pitch in 2023 and barely got to use it in 2024, but so far it’s been a real weapon for him during what is looking like a breakout 2025. He threw it 28 times Thursday against the Nationals along with a steady diet of elevated four-seamers and that was pretty much all he needed to generate six strikeouts during his six innings of work. That splitter has a whiff rate over 40%, as does his curveball, and it’s helped him overcome some iffy metrics on his four-seamer. The fastball still looks like it could be a problem – he had just a 15% whiff rate and a .478 xwOBA on the pitch entering Thursday – but there’s clearly something here, and it’s worth chasing. Let’s not forget, despite making his MLB debut back in 2023, Smith-Shawver is still just 22. He might just be figuring it out now.
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves (20%) – Sean Murphy is under contract for three more seasons after this one (with an option for a fourth), but Baldwin might be already forcing them into some tough decisions. The team’s top prospect just keeps crushing the ball, racking up three more hits Thursday to push his season line to .360/.407/.573. Baldwin isn’t playing every day or anything close to it, but he has started four of the past 10 games, and if he can keep this up – his underlying metrics suggest he can – he might already be pushing to make this a 50-50 split. And if anything happens to Murphy – or Marcell Ozuna, which would open the DH spot – Baldwin could be a must-start catcher in any format. For now, he’s a big part of the youth movement at the catcher position and probably just needs to be rostered in all two-catcher leagues.
Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins (35%) – Matthews’ demotion at the end of Spring Training was frustrating, but it was illuminating in one way – we got a proof of concept for the improved skills he showed in spring. Matthews’ velocity is up 1.6 mph from where it was last season on his four-seamer, and it’s led to better results than he managed in his time at Triple-A last season. I’m not sure I buy Matthews as a true 28.1% strikeout rate pitcher, but I feel more comfortable with his zone-heavy approach working if he’s sitting 96-97 than when he was around 94-95. There are probably always going to be some homer issues for Matthews, given how much he works in the zone, but I’m hoping the improved stuff will help him avoid the 2.63 HR/9 he dealt with in the majors last season. Matthews is getting the call to start Sunday against the Brewers, and while I don’t think I would necessarily start him in that one right away, I do want to add him in as many spots as possible now.
Shawn Armstrong, RP, Rangers (1%) – It’s not clear how serious either Chris Martin (elbow) or Luke Jackson‘s (hand) injuries are, but with both banged up, Armstrong has gotten the past two saves for the Rangers. I don’t think it’s particularly likely he’s just going to take the job and run with it, but he’s getting a taste and proving he can handle it, so maybe if Jackson ends up going on the IL, Armstrong will get the opportunity to replace him – the Rangers have been weirdly reluctant to pigeonhole Martin in the ninth-inning role, after all.
