Thunder vs. Nuggets. Downtown Oklahoma City. Sunday afternoon on ABC. Game 7.
Buckle up, folks.
“It’s do or die,” Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said after OKC’s loss at Denver in Game 6. “It’s what you live for, what you work your whole life for. Either your dream continues or your dream ends, so you leave it all out there on the floor and live with the results.”
The short-term stakes, as SGA summed up, are enormous. A Thunder win equals progress — a Western Conference finals appearance. And a loss? Immense disappointment. An opportunity spoiled. Not a setback, but a stall out.
As for the long-term stakes … are we sure there are long-term stakes?
You might be cursing me under your breath for a take so cold that it’s actually sneaky spicy, but since when is Sam Presti a rash decision maker? We’ll get to that later.
First, the short-term stakes.
If the Thunder wins Game 7 …
Maybe OKC is clutch. We questioned the Thunder’s clutch gene, or lack thereof, after fumbling away Game 1 and no-showing in overtime of Game 3. But then the Thunder outlasted the Nuggets in a rugged Game 4 on the road and stormed back in the fourth quarter to take Game 5 at home. Nothing would quell the clutch concerns quite like winning a Game 7.
MVP validation for SGA. This one is admittedly stupid, but I can already hear the whir of the take machines. If the Nuggets win, can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander really be the MVP? Stop it. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the best MVP case. Both things can be true. It’s a regular-season award! Also, SGA will be one of the last to blame if the Thunder loses this series. If the Thunder wins, we’ll all be spared from this conversation.
The path is wide open. I booked NBA Finals hotel reservations in two cities: Boston and Cleveland. I’ve already canceled one of them. By the time you’re reading this, I might have canceled the other. New York and Indiana are no joke. Neither is Minnesota. But there were three dominant teams this season, and the Thunder could be the last of them remaining. The Thunder is built to be a long-term championship contender, but it may not have a more manageable route to a ring than this one.
If the Thunder loses Game 7 …
Regular season schmegular season. No one is going to care what the Thunder does in the 2025-26 regular season. Not after a 68-win season and the best point differential of all time resulted in a second-round exit. The Thunder could win 70 games next season and the response would be a collective shrug. Prove it in the playoffs.
Experience matters. Of course the Thunder was too young and inexperienced to pull this off. Nothing to do about this one except sit back and wait. Get older, wiser and better.
Who are the real playoff guys? I wrote about Jalen Williams after his Game 6 dud. Chet Holmgren still isn’t the Chet Holmgren he was before he broke his hip … but consider that he broke his hip. It still looks like he’s playing catch up, especially offensively. And what are we to make of the Thunder’s 3-point shooting falling off a cliff in the playoffs?
What’s at stake long term if the Thunder wins Game 7?
Momentum. After losing in Round 2 last season to Dallas, making the Western Conference finals would mark the next step. Even if the Thunder went on to lose in the conference finals, you could talk yourself into feeling good about OKC’s postseason moxie entering what would be a third playoff run next season.
What happens to Denver? The Nuggets have already fired general manager Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone. David Adelman has surely done enough to shed his interim tag as head coach. But expect roster moves in Denver. The Nuggets have to add more depth.
Changing of the guard out West. Minnesota has now made back-to-back West finals appearances. The Thunder’s reign atop the West could just be beginning. Houston and San Antonio are coming.
What’s at stake long term if the Thunder loses Game 7?
Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors. The photoshops of Giannis in a Thunder jersey are a tad premature, wouldn’t you say? This is how it goes, though. No one could outbid Oklahoma City if Antetokounmpo wants out of Milwaukee. We could talk about Giannis’ fit and what the Thunder would have to give up, but I’d rather not. Not right now.
Trade deadline regrets. Not saying the Thunder has any for its passivity. I liked that OKC stood pat. BUT WHAT ABOUT CAM JOHNSON??? The Thunder could still go get him in the offseason if Sam Presti thinks he’s the missing piece.
The window can close quickly. Just look at the Celtics. They went from a possible repeat to now — with Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury — falling out of contention not just for one year but likely two.
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
