Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tips off on Tuesday night, and bettors and NBA fans have a very intriguing matchup ahead of them.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder are the top two defenses (in terms of defensive rating) in the playoffs this season, and they both finished the regular season in the top four in the league in net rating.
Remember, since the start of the 1996-97 season, every NBA champion has come from a team that finished the regular season in the top eight in the league in net rating.
Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as sizable favorites in Game 1, but they are off a quick turnaround after playing Game 7 of the second round (and winning by 32) against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Wolves have been off for several days after discarding the Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors in five games.
On Tuesday night, I’m eyeing three bets, including player props for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Julius Randle in this series opener. Let’s dive into the picks to kick off the Western Conference Finals!
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – 0.5 unit
During the regular season, the Timberwolves and Thunder split their four matchups. Although Randle did not play in three of those games. So, that could be a positive sign for the Wolves, who have gone 25-6 straight up (including playoffs) since Randle returned to the lineup from an injury.
Minnesota is one of the better teams in the NBA against the spread as a road underdog this season, going 11-6, and it’s worth noting that OKC – even though it is elite overall ATS – is just 7-6-1 against the spread with a rest disadvantage this season.
The Thunder also only covered in two of their seven games against Denver, the blowout wins in Game 2 and Game 7.
The key for Minnesota in this matchup will be limiting turnovers, as OKC is forcing over 18 turnovers a game in the playoffs. However, Minnesota is No. 2 in turnovers forced and has an elite defense that should be able to send a lot of different looks at SGA.
In the Thunder’s two wins over the Wolves in the regular season, they won by just seven and eight points, a sign that this Minnesota team can hang, despite being set as a massive underdog in the series odds.
I’m worried about Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who both shot pretty poorly in the second round, as the No. 2 options in this OKC offense. While the Wolves may not end up pulling off an upset, I do think they keep Game 1 close on Tuesday night.
Julius Randle OVER 19.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
Randle has been awesome this postseason, averaging 23.9 points per game while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 34.5 percent from beyond the arc.
The Timberwolves forward has been the clear No. 2 option behind Anthony Edwards in the offense, and one could argue he’s been the Wolves’ best player at points in these playoffs.
Randle has scored 20 or more points in eight of his 10 playoff games, putting up 24 or more points in each of his final four games against the Warriors. While he only faced Minnesota once this season, Randle could be a matchup issue for the Thunder because of his physicality down low.
Will Chet Holmgren be able to hold up against him in the post? Will OKC go small against him? Randle can play bully ball in either scenario, and his usage has been fairly high in the playoffs.
The Timberwolves star is averaging 16.9 shots per game in the playoffs, attempting 16 or more in seven of his 10 games. He’s coming off 31 and 29 points in his final two games against Golden State, and I think he’s a little undervalued at this number in Game 1.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
SGA has cleared 31.5 points in five of his 11 playoff games this season, averaging just a tick under 30 points per game.
However, he really picked things up in the closing games of the Denver series, scoring 31 or more points in Games 5, 6 and 7. Now, he has a matchup against a Timberwolves team that he gave some problems to in the regular season.
In four meetings with the Wolves, SGA finished with 40, 24, 37 and 39 points. In the game he was held to 24 points, he shot just 6-for-21 from the field, but he shot 54.0 percent or better in the other three games.
Things have been a little tougher in the playoffs for SGA with teams packing their defenses in to take away his driving lanes, but he’s still one of the best one-on-one scorers in the league.
I don’t think he’ll score 40, but this prop is set below his season average. Until Minnesota proves that it can slow SGA down, he’s worth a look in this market. The MVP candidate has attempted 20.9 shots per game in the playoffs, including eight games with 19 or more shot attempts.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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