Parity has prevailed.
The NBA is guaranteed to have a different champion for the seventh consecutive season, and we haven’t seen a back-to-back champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18. Three of the four teams remaining in the playoffs — the Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves — have never won a title (in their current locations, at least). The fourth — the New York Knicks — hasn’t won since Richard Nixon was president.
Few expected these conference finals matchups, but that doesn’t make them less important. Who will advance to the NBA Finals? And who will raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June? Members of The Athletic NBA staff share their predictions:
East finals: Knicks in 7
West finals: Thunder in 6
NBA Finals: Thunder in 6
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: After seeing how hard the flawed, injured Denver Nuggets pushed the Thunder, I’m not willing to rule any of the four teams out here. Ultimately, though, the Thunder have been the best team all year. They have the best remaining player and the best defense. I’m not sure which one is more susceptible. The Timberwolves have enough pieces to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but are generally not explosive enough to score efficiently on them.
Advertisement
The Eastern Conference finals feel like a toss-up to me. Give me the team playing at home at Madison Square Garden in Game 7. I assume we will see Mikal Bridges on Tyrese Haliburton and OG Anunoby on old teammate Pascal Siakam. Both of those matches should be fun. But the Thunder are better than both. I think a healthy Knicks team has the best shot of beating them of the remaining three teams, but I can’t get there. — Eric Koreen
East finals: Knicks in 7
West finals: Thunder in 5
NBA Finals: Thunder in 6
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: The Knicks have the talent and bodies to throw at Tyrese Haliburton. I don’t trust the Pacers’ secondary players to make enough shots over a seven-game series if New York can consistently defend at a good-to-great level. As for the WCF, the Thunder finally got over the hump and will keep going. They defend too well and can score with the best of them. Minnesota has high highs as a team but low lows and can play head-scratching basketball at times. I think the Thunder handle them comfortably.
OKC has been the most complete team all season. The best team finds a way to win the title. — James L. Edwards III
East finals: Knicks in 7
West finals: Thunder in 6
NBA Finals: Thunder in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: If the Pacers could operate their offense against the Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis Antetokounmpo) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (Evan Mobley), then Haliburton should enjoy targeting Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns repeatedly and finding Siakam. But on the flip side, the Knicks are getting significant relief for their offense and rebounding as opposed to their series with the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics. Home-court advantage, healthier lineups and favorable officiating will allow New York to survive the Pacers this time around.
Advertisement
The Timberwolves have several defenders to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander, in addition to Rudy Gobert waiting at the rim, while they will have multiple games of overwhelming 3-point shooting led by Anthony Edwards. But Oklahoma City is going to take much better advantage of Timberwolves’ turnovers than the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors did; Jalen Williams being matched up on Naz Reid will be a swing factor in this series. The NBA Finals would be better if the Pacers were in it, but since they won’t be, the Thunder should be well equipped to handle a relatively stationary and shallow Knicks team. — Law Murray
East finals: Pacers in 6
West finals: Wolves in 6
NBA Finals: Wolves in 6
Finals MVP: Anthony Edwards
Analysis: All season, I’ve expected Oklahoma City to win it all. But I’ve seen enough vulnerability in the Thunder to reconsider, with great hesitation. On one hand, Denver was the tough series they needed to get through to learn how to win at this level. On the other hand, they were stymied more by the will of the Nuggets than their talent. Minnesota has more talent and perhaps as much will, including the size, athleticism and experience to push OKC. It’s going to come down to Ant and SGA in the clutch. I’m picking Ant, who is rested and familiar with this stage. He just had better do it by Game 6. The Wolves don’t want to deal with Oklahoma fervor in Game 7.
Out East, the Pacers are about to be written off again on account of Knicks hype. Not by me! The disrespect will motivate them for sure. Admittedly, I want Wolves-Knicks. The storylines are everywhere. But Indiana applies so much pressure offensively while also maintaining a stout defense. No, the Pacers don’t have great answers for Brunson, a clutch phenomenon that Cleveland and Milwaukee hardly prepared them for in the first two rounds. But if anybody can match Brunson down the stretch of games, put Haliburton on the short list. Myles Turner is playing well enough to counter the damage Towns can do. Plus, the Knicks’ fatigue levels figure to become a problem against the up-tempo Pacers. Indiana’s depth will be the decider. But like Minnesota, Indiana better do it in six games. A Game 7 at MSG for a trip to the finals? If it gets that far, Spike Lee’s writing that script. — Marcus Thompson II
East finals: Pacers in 6
West finals: Thunder in 6
NBA Finals: Thunder in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: Oklahoma City has to be a heavy favorite to win the title after surviving Denver; the Wolves match up well with them in most ways and come in rested, but ultimately, their turnover-proneness is likely to be fatal against this handsy, voracious defense. I expect Indiana-New York to be very close, but the Pacers have a slight edge in depth and schematic versatility, and I trust Rick Carlisle more than Tom Thibodeau in the X-and-O chess match.
That leaves OKC-Indiana, which isn’t exactly TV’s dream matchup and might be a fairly quick series; New York would match up a bit better with their size and multiple defenders to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander. — John Hollinger
East finals: Knicks in 7
West finals: Thunder in 5
NBA Finals: Thunder in 6
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: Surviving a seven-game slugfest against a proven champion was the best thing that could’ve happened for this young Thunder squad. They were able to dig deep and find the role players who were ready to step up to the moment. And, most importantly, Gilgeous-Alexander performed the way a superstar is supposed to when his team’s back was against the wall. Minnesota is tough as hell, but the defensive pressure the Thunder bring on every possession will be too much for a Timberwolves offense that can be erratic at times.
Advertisement
On the other side, I see Knicks-Pacers being an extremely close series. Keeping their main contributors healthy throughout a physical back-and-forth series will be crucial for the Knicks. The Pacers will try to wear them down, especially Brunson, with their depth. But in the biggest moments of this series, I expect Brunson to shine above everyone else. And after digging deep to get through Indy, I don’t think there will be much left for the Knicks to throw at OKC. I view the Thunder as a heavy favorite to walk away as champions. — Will Guillory
East finals: Knicks in 7
West finals: Thunder in 6
NBA Finals: Thunder in 5
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: Winning Game 7 against the best player alive and a team with championship pedigree felt like a significant mental hurdle the Thunder cleared. The disparity in points off turnovers in that game was eye-popping, with Oklahoma City holding a 39-7 edge over Denver. I’m picking the Thunder to beat the Timberwolves because they’re so good at protecting the ball and turning other teams over. I think the Timberwolves will struggle to score in the half court this series.
Out East, the Knicks-Pacers matchup is more difficult to forecast. I’m tempted to pick the Pacers. I love the way they execute on offense and the toughness their guards, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, bring. But this series feels close enough that I’m going with the team that has home-court advantage. Give me the Thunder and Knicks in the finals, where I’m predicting historically dominant Oklahoma City to win. — Christian Clark
East finals: Knicks in 7
West finals: Thunder in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder in 7
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: It feels very strange to predict seven-game finishes for each of the last three series, but the parity in these particular playoffs and this new NBA world makes it that much harder to handicap winners. I’m betting on the Brunson magic in Knicks-Pacers, with just enough from Towns and the “others” to (barely) get the job done. But Indiana’s depth and speed are going to be a major problem for a Knicks defense that still comes and goes at times.
Out West, I’m with Marcus when it comes to the Thunder’s vulnerabilities being laid bare in that series against Denver. I just don’t think it will wind up costing them in the end, though it will make it more interesting along the way. The Wolves are deeper, younger and more dynamic across the board than the Nuggets. I’m very curious to see if Julius Randle can stay at this same, impressive level against the Thunder bigs (and Alex Caruso) who just gave Nikola Jokić such fits. That OKC defense is just incredible when it’s clicking.
Advertisement
If it winds up being Knicks-Thunder on that NBA Finals stage, that will be the kind of pressure-bursts-pipes matchup that favors New York. From Thibodeau on down, the Knicks’ massive edge on the playoff experience front will keep them in it until the (Game 7) end. But I just covered OKC’s series-ending win over Denver — the ears are still ringing, in fact — and could see that sort of one-sided scene playing out again at the end. — Sam Amick
East finals: Pacers in 6
West finals: Thunder in 7
NBA Finals: Thunder in 7
Finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Analysis: Over the last two seasons, I’ve come to appreciate the ruthlessness of the Pacers’ offensive execution. They fly from one action to the next and pack so much activity into every possession that they make themselves incredibly difficult to cover. The Knicks were dealing with quite a few injuries last season, but the Pacers came into Madison Square Garden for a Game 7 and put up 130 points on 67.1 percent shooting to clinch their spot in the conference finals. The Knicks are better and healthier this season, but the Pacers will be unafraid of the moment.
On the other side of the bracket, it looks like another heavyweight fight for the Thunder, as the Timberwolves have only lost six times since March 1. Oklahoma City is still relatively young for a championship contender, but the Thunder showed their mettle against the Nuggets and managed to slow down Jokić enough to come out on top. OKC’s defense was the best in the league by a wide margin in the regular season, and the same has been true in the postseason. If the Thunder can do enough offensively, they can keep advancing and ultimately win a championship. — Eric Nehm
(Top photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: William Purnell / Getty Images)
