The Minnesota Timberwolves will face that near must-win scenario when returning home for Game 3 after the Oklahoma City Thunder took the first two games at home. Both Minnesota starting big men Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert have put together some of their best performances at home this postseason. The Timberwolves will need that again as they host the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder for Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Our model expects Randle and Gobert to perform near their best for Saturday NBA player props on betting sites. The two combined for just 11 points in Game 2, but a return to Minnesota could provide a spark. Accordingly, Randle and Gobert could be a popular piece of a Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay at online betting sites. You can also check out our Thunder-Timberwolves Game 3 SGP.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 3 NBA props:
- Aaron Wiggins Over 4.5 points (+100)
- Julius Randle Over 25.5 points + rebounds (-106)
- Rudy Gobert Over 6.5 points (+105)
Aaron Wiggins Over 4.5 points (+100)
The model projects Wiggins for six points on Saturday after averaging 11.1 points per game during the regular season. It’s pretty common for role players off the bench like Wiggins to see fewer minutes during the postseason than during the regular season, but Oh sees a window for the Warriors guard to have a longer run in Game 3. Wiggins has performed better on the road this season and if he knocks down an early shot, he can stay on the floor longer. Wiggins, who has attempted multiple 3-pointers in six of nine playoff games this season, likely only needs two baskets to hit this Over, and Oh likes those chances. bet365 is currently offering the best odds at +100, and signing up using a bet365 bonus code earns you $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager.
“His road splits are encouraging: 11.6 ppg on the road vs. 10.7 at home and Over 4.5 points in 35 of 43 road games (81.4%),” Oh said. “Wiggins is one of five perimeter bench players tasked with defending and “heat checking” from three. With Caruso locked into a major role and Isaiah Joe seemingly out of the rotation, Wiggins could see more minutes if either Cason Wallace or Kenrich Williams (2-for-7 from three combined in Game 2) miss their first few wide-open looks.”
Julius Randle Over 25.5 points + rebounds (-106)
Randle has gone Over this total in nine of 12 postseason games and this number has risen since opening at 23.5 points + rebounds. The model still views 25.5 as an extreme overreaction to one miserable game with Randle having six points and five rebounds in Game 2 on Thursday. Randle shot 2 of 11 from the field in just 32 minutes in Game 2 in a contest where he was totally off, but the previous postseason contests indicate he’s unlikely to play that poorly again.
Randle averaged 25.2 points and 6.6 rebounds last series against the Warriors. Even with Thursday’s awful performance, he’s averaging 22.3 points and six rebounds per game this postseason. The model projects Randle for a 27.7 points + rebounds performance in a basically must-win for Minnesota if it wants a chance to upset Oklahoma City. Randle had gone Over this total in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 29.3 points + rebounds per game. FanDuel is offering the best odds at -106, and new users can take advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code.
Rudy Gobert Over 6.5 points (+105)
Gobert has only seven total points in two games against Oklahoma City this series, but a return to Minnesota could make a significant difference for the 7-foot-1 center. Gobert averaged 12.9 ppg at home, compared to 11.1 ppg on the road, and he had 17 points in a Game 5 home closeout victory over the Warriors in the previous round. He averaged 10.3 ppg at home against the Warriors, going Over this total in two of three contests.
The three-time All-Star is guaranteed significant playing time due to his defensive ability, and just that time on the floor alone provides chances at a few baskets or getting fouled to hit this Over. Gobert has a block in each of the previous two games to justify his playing time without scoring much. He’s gone Over his total points in 16 of his last 25 home games and even with Anthony Edwards likely more aggressive with his shot in a huge Game 3, the model projects Gobert at 8.4 points with enough chances to hit this Over. A DraftKings Sportsbook promo code for new users or anyone with an account already can make this play at +105 odds, the best odds currently available on the market, as the majority of sportsbooks have this play at minus-money odds.
