We’re past the point of expecting top prospects to come up from the minors and immediately carry our Fantasy teams. That’s not to say they can’t do it, but the past few years should have recalibrated our expectations and gotten the term “can’t-miss prospect” out of our vocabularies.
But top prospect promotions are still the most exciting thing that can happen on the Fantasy Baseball waiver wire. Because, while it might be true that the likeliest outcome for any given top prospect when they get promoted is that they struggle, that’s also true for the has-beens and/or never-weres who typically populate the waiver wire in most Fantasy leagues. Rather than trying to talk yourself into a random two-week hot stretch from some 27-year-old being meaningful, you should be betting on the upside of the top prospects.
And the latest to get the call is Marcelo Mayer, who ends up beating teammate Roman Anthony to the majors. Not necessarily on the merits of his own performance, but because an opportunity opened up in the infield before one opened up in the outfield, with Alex Bregman suffering a quad injury this weekend. That creates a spot for Mayer to fill for at least a few weeks.
Mayer has been a top prospect for a while, though he’s become overshadowed in the Red Sox system by the development of Anthony and Kristian Campbell. Partially, that’s because those dudes have just taken off like rockets, but it’s also partially because Mayer hasn’t. He missed some time with injury and then just put up solid production when healthy – .307/.370/.480 line at Double-A last season, and then a .271/.347/.471 line at Triple-A before his promotion. There’s nothing wrong with either of those lines, but from a player without a huge walk rate or a lot of impact on the bases, it just doesn’t look quite as exceptional as what Campbell and Anthony did.
But, you see there, I keep comparing him to Campbell and Anthony, and that’s not fair! Those are two of the dozen or so best prospects in baseball; that Mayer is one of the three or so dozen best prospects in baseball shouldn’t be a knock on him. He’s an exciting young player who is going to get a long leash in a very good Red Sox offense, and he’s worth adding in every single league where he wasn’t already stashed. Just in case he takes this opportunity and runs with it.
And if he does that, there really shouldn’t be much playing time concern, even when Bregman is healthy; Campbell and Trevor Story have both been in a deep slump since hot starts in April, so if Mayer forces the issue, he could just push one of them into a smaller role. He has that kind of talent, and now he has that kind of opportunity. Let’s make sure he’s rostered pretty much everywhere after this week’s waiver-wire run.
Let’s also talk about one more player who hasn’t gotten the call yet but seems like he’s on the verge of forcing his way up: Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone. You might remember Caglianone as a two-way player at the University of Florida, but he’s focusing on making pitchers miserable these days, and he’s doing a great job.
He has only been at Triple-A Omaha for six games, but he’s already gotten a hit in each one, including a homer in four straight after Sunday’s 459-foot blast. Each of those four homers has been hit at least 107 mph, as he’s putting his plus-plus power on display. Caglianone struggled in his professional debut last season, but he’s torn through Double-A and now Triple-A, hitting .318/.384/.572 before Sunday’s blast. And he’s doing it with a very respectable 20.7% strikeout rate.
I do think strikeouts will be a problem for Caglianone, just like they’ve been for Nick Kurtz in his early career. But he has the power to make up for that, and if he keeps his strikeout rate in the 25% range when he does get the call, he could be an impact bat. Other top prospects’ struggles should keep our expectations in check, but the Royals already have to be looking at the likes of Drew Waters, Michael Massey, Kyle Isbel, and Mark Canha in their lineup most days and wondering if Caglianone isn’t an update for them. He should get the chance to prove it in the next few weeks at this pace.
Before we get into the rest of this week’s waiver-wire targets, a quick housekeeping note: I will be taking an hour from noon to 1 pm ET in the comments of this article Monday afternoon. Click the comment button on the top right to get your questions in beforehand.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add on waivers ahead of Week 10:
Week 10 Waiver Targets
Catchers
Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks (41%) – Moreno was easy enough to drop when things were going poorly, because there just isn’t that much upside in a guy with a career-high of seven homers. You’re not waiting around through the bad times when the good times are “a decent batting average and not much else.” But when he’s locked in, like hitting .305/.339/.576 since the start of May, he’s well worth rostering, even in one-catcher leagues.
Deep-league target: Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (11%) – I don’t really buy Narvaez’s hot start, but the Red Sox sure seem to, as they moved him up to the cleanup spot for Saturday’s game. I don’t think he’s likely to stay there forever, but he’s showing enough that it isn’t necessarily unreasonable right now – his .253 expected batting average isn’t anything to write home about, but there might be legitimate pop here, as his .456 expected slugging percentage shows. As a No. 2 catcher, Narvaez has some appeal.
First Base
Gavin Sheets, Padres (39%) – Sheets just keeps hitting. He homered twice on Thursday and once more on Friday and is now up to nine on the season – six of which have come in the month of May. He sits against most (but not all) lefties, but still plays enough to be fifth on the Padres in plate appearances, so it’s not like he’s killing you in terms of counting stats. Sheets is hitting better than he ever has, so some regression might be expected, but he made some changes to his swing before the season that led to huge numbers in the spring, and he’s now hitting the ball harder than ever, so I’m not inclined to totally write it off – especially when he’s still so widely available.
Deep-league target: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Reds (35%) – Encarnacion-Strand began his minor-league rehab assignment a few days ago as he works his way back from a back injury, and while he wasn’t doing much before the injury, I still think there’s some upside worth chasing here. Especially with the Reds still getting little from the DH or 1B spots. Encarnacion-Strand is probably running out of opportunities, but I think he’ll get at least one more when he’s healthy.
Second base
Otto Lopez, Marlins (18%) – Lopez hasn’t done a ton since coming off the IL, but he continues to flash promising skills. For the season he’s now up to a .285 expected batting average and .462 expected slugging percentage, and he stole 20 bases last season, so we know there’s speed here. I’d prefer to add him when he’s hot, but if I need middle infield help, his skill set still looks very useful.
Deep-league target: Curtis Mead, Rays (5%) – Mead made an adjustment to his batting stance recently and it has resulted in a seven-game hitting streak, including three homers in three days. Mead was one of the best hitters in the league during the spring, but he didn’t carry it over to the regular season. Until now. It’s a very small sample size, but Mead was a productive minor-league hitter (.8776 career OPS), so maybe this tweak can help unlock a bit of upside.
Third base
Matt Shaw, Cubs (70%) – Shaw looked downright overwhelmed in his first stint in the majors, but it looks like the game has slowed down for him since his return last week. Shaw has multiple hits in three of six games and is 9 for 22 overall with just two strikeouts, to go along with five doubles and two steals. Shaw had one of the lowest swing rates in baseball before his demotion, but he’s been much more aggressive early in counts the second time around without sacrificing much in terms of contact skills. Sometimes guys just need a second chance. Shaw should be rostered in just about every league at this point.
Deep-league target: Brett Baty, Mets (28%) – Baty is on chance No. 7 at this point, roughly, so any hot streak should be taken with a grain of salt. But he has been awesome since his latest return to the majors, hitting .326/.356/.698 in 45 plate appearances since May 7. The Mets are protecting him from most lefties, which limits his Fantasy upside, but he also has a .430 expected wOBA since his return from the minors, the best stretch we’ve ever seen from him. Again, skepticism is reasonable, but we’ve never seen this from Baty before either, so I’m not going to write it off entirely.
Shortstop
Chase Meidroth, White Sox (31%) – Meidroth was one of those prospects who would have looked a lot more interesting if he stole more bases – He hit .293/.437/.400 in Triple-A as a 22-year-old last season, for instance, but with just 13 steals, which made it hard to expect too much from him for Fantasy. Well, in his first 29 major-league games now, Meidroth has stolen eight bases on as many attempts, so now we have to get interested in him. There’s very little power – and pretty limited foot speed here, too – but Meidroth has a good approach at the plate and rarely strikes out, and if we can get a useful batting average and 20-plus steals from him, that’s a useful player in categories leagues.
Deep-league targets: Ha-Seong Kim, Rays (16%) – Kim will move his minor-league rehab assignment to Triple-A Monday, which is probably the final step in his return from offseason shoulder surgery. He’ll probably still be down there for another week at least, and the nature of his injury means a slow start might be a reasonable expectation. But he’s coming off an 11-homer, 22-steal season in just 121 games, and that’s a very useful player in any category-based league. If you have a roster spot to play with, you can add him now.
Outfield
Parker Meadows, Tigers (24%) – Meadows is also on the final steps in his recovery from a spring injury, and I’d expect we’ll see him in the next week or two. Meadows flopped out of the gate to start last season, but he was a huge part of the Tigers second-half surge in 2024, hitting .299/.344/.513 with seven homers and six steals in just 45 games after returning from the minors in July. If he can replicate anything like that, he’s a must-roster player in any Roto league.
Matt Wallner, Twins (28%) – Wallner’s a lot better in OBP leagues thanks to his massive strikeout issues, but he was showing some signs of improving on that before landing on the IL in mid-April, as he was striking out just 28.4% of the time before the injury. Wallner was hitting leadoff against righties and his power and on-base skills make him a good fit there if he can get past this hamstring injury. He could be back in the next few days.
Will Benson, Reds (34%) – Benson is a player of big extremes. He has plus athleticism that manifests in big power and speed, but he also struck out 39.7% of the time last season. It hasn’t been as big an issue this season, and if he can just be a more normal bad plate discipline guy – a strikeout rate in the 30% range would be fine – he can be a very useful Fantasy option. We just need him to hit .250 instead of .190.
Trevor Larnach, Twins (37%) – I’ve never been a big believer in Larnach’s, but I know plenty of people in the Fantasy industry really like him. For me, he’s more of a hot-hand play, and Larnach is hitting .298/.353/.553 over the past 12 games entering play Sunday. That’ll play, even if I don’t necessarily think he’s a long-term fit for most teams.
Denzel Clarke, Athletics (8%) – Clarke, who was called up by the A’s in recent days to try to jump-start a surprisingly cold outfield, is a fascinating player. He’s 6’4″, 220 pounds, and he’s super tooled up. But they seem to have tried to remake him as a contact-first slap-hitting type, with his strikeout rate dropping to 21.8% in his first 31 games at Triple-A this season, while his groundball rate spiked to 68.1%. There’s plenty of raw power here, and Clarke is a patient hitter who will take a walk, so there are plenty of ways for him to impact a game. I’m not convinced this is going to work out, but the A’s do have a success story to point at with a similar type of player in Lawrence Butler, and Clarke is an intriguing enough talent to be worth adding in deeper categories leagues this week.
Starting pitcher
Eury Perez, Marlins (59%) – Perez got up to 61 pitches in his most recent rehab start at Triple-A, so he’s probably just a few weeks away from making his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery. There will be limitations and frustrations as he works his way back, but Perez is still one of the most talented young pitchers in the game, and he’ll still be just 22 for the entire season. The last time we saw him, he had a 3.15 ERA and 28.9% strikeout rate in 91.1 innings as a 20-year-old in the majors, and since his injury he has reworked his curveball to be more of a sweeper, which should help him miss even more bats – he needed something that moved more laterally with an arsenal that was otherwise pretty north-south. Perez has “best pitcher in baseball” upside and should be stashed wherever possible now that his return looks imminent.
Yu Darvish, Padres (64%) – Darvis could be back from his elbow injury next weekend, and his stuff has looked mostly fine in his rehab assignment, with his velocity actually up a bit from last season. It’s been a while since Darvish really pitched like an ace, but he was certainly useful when healthy last season, sporting a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with nearly a strikeout per inning. If he can do that again, he’d be a very useful Fantasy option once again.
Zebby Matthews, Twins (44%) – Matthews hasn’t been bad since his return from Triple-A, but he has been a bit disappointing, in ways that may continue moving forward. He has made it through just seven innings in his two starts so far, mostly due to some inefficiency – but also because the Twins are on the extreme end of the spectrum when it comes to limiting their young starters’ exposure to the third time through the order penalty. That might always be an issue for Matthews, but with 14 strikeouts in those seven innings, he’s also showing that there might be untapped potential here with his velocity increase. Matthews needs to pitch better than he has to be more than a fringe Fantasy option, but the upside is there.
Hayden Birdsong, Giants (68%) – Stuff has never been an issue for Birdsong, but what makes him so interesting right now is the improved control he has shown so far this season. Birdsong walked 13.7% of opposing hitters last season, but he has that mark down to 8.3% so far, basically a league-average mark. Most of those innings came in relief, but he did make his return to the rotation last week and walked none over five innings of work, which is a promising sign. If he can keep that walk rate on the right side of 10%, he has plenty of appeal with a good team and ballpark backing him up.
Will Warren, Yankees (75%) – Something clicked for Warren a few starts ago. He started throwing his four-seamer a lot less and the rest of his arsenal more, and we’re seeing by far the best stretch of his major-league career as a result. It’s an interesting approach, because it’s not like his four-seamer has even been a bad pitch for him – it has a very strong 27.4% whiff rate and .267 xwOBA with the pitch, but maybe there’s a “less is more” principle at play here. Either way, he’s had at least seven strikeouts in five straight starts and an ERA below 2.50 in his past four, and while I don’t love his matchup against the Dodgers this week, I do think Warren has shown enough here to be worth rostering in pretty much every league moving forward.
Slade Cecconi, Guardians (9%) – I was pretty skeptical about Cecconi being Fantasy relevant when he got the call, but he’s been pretty impressive so far, striking out 14, walking just two, and allowing four runs in 11 innings in his first two starts. His four-seamer looks better than it did last season, generating an extra couple of inches of induced vertical break, which should help it play up, and he’s introduced a new sinker and cutter to expand his arsenal. The slider and curveball both have whiff rates over 40% so far, and the cutter and changeup have been pretty solid too. I don’t think Cecconi is an ace, or anything, but he looks pretty interesting right now for deeper leagues.
Noah Cameron, Royals (26%) – We finally saw a bit of strikeout upside from Cameron, who sat down eight Twins by strikeout in Friday’s start, where he allowed just one earned run while pitching into the seventh inning for the third time in as many starts. The results have been excellent so far for Cameron, so I can’t just ignore what he’s doing right now. But I don’t buy it. At all. His fastball is a bad pitch that hasn’t been punished yet, and I don’t believe in the rest of his arsenal to carry him when that inevitably goes south. If you want to play the hot hand with Cameron right now, go for it – he gets another great matchup against the Reds this week! – but I think in the long run he’s going to prove pretty painful to roster.
Relief pitcher
Justin Martinez, Diamondbacks (61%) – The Diamondbacks didn’t commit to getting Martinez immediately back into the closer’s role now that he’s past his shoulder injury, but I don’t think it’ll take long. He’s a dominant force in the back end of the bullpen when right, and while Shelby Miller did an admirable job in his absence, he’s a clear step down from Martinez as a pitcher. It won’t take long for Martinez to be the unquestioned closer here.
Daniel Palencia, Cubs (12%) – It sure looks like the Cubs are giving Palencia a chance to be the closer here. He has the team’s last two saves and the last three save opportunities. His 13% career walk rate suggests that Palencia won’t be long for the role, but he has the stuff to get it done, at least, so maybe he can get hot and run with it. If you’re looking for saves, he’s one of the best widely available choices right now.
