The 2025 NBA Finals will tip off on Thursday, as the Thunder host the Pacers for Game 1 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.
For all the hand-wringing leading up to the series about market size and TV ratings, this year’s Finals matchup features two highly entertaining teams led by All-NBA point guards who have established themselves as NBA superstars.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, this season’s Most Valuable Player, leads the way for the Thunder, who submitted one of the most dominant regular season performances in NBA history in 2024/25. Only four teams have compiled more wins in a single season than Oklahoma City’s 68 in ’24/25, and the Thunder’s +12.7 net rating ranks second all-time, behind only the 1995/96 Bulls.
While Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the NBA with 32.7 points per game, is the engine of an offense that ranked third in the NBA this season, he gets plenty of help from a strong supporting cast. Jalen Williams (21.6 PPG) and Chet Holmgren (15.0 PPG) headline the group of six more Thunder players who averaged double-digit points per game this year, along with Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, and Luguentz Dort.
Many of those same players, with the help of reserves like Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace, were responsible for making the Thunder’s defense the NBA’s best by a comfortable margin. The gap between Oklahoma City’s league-leading 106.6 defensive rating and Orlando’s 109.1 second-place mark was bigger than the gap between the Magic and the seventh-place Warriors (111.0).
Dort and Williams both earned All-Defensive spots and Caruso and/or Wallace would’ve been legitimate candidates to join them if they’d played enough minutes to qualify for consideration.
The Thunder had the league’s lowest turnover percentage (11.6%) and generated the highest opponent turnover percentage (16.9%), resulting in a ton of transition opportunities and a significant edge in the possession battle. Oklahoma City’s average of 92.1 field goal attempts per game was easily the top mark in the NBA, well ahead of second-place Milwaukee (87.8). The Thunder also ranked in the top five in free throw attempts per game.
While the Thunder’s formula will be tough to crack, the Pacers have been one of the NBA’s best teams in their own right since January 1. After a shaky start to the season, Indiana caught fire in 2025, finishing the season on a 34-14 run and then going 12-4 in the first three rounds of the postseason.
Led by All-NBA third-teamer Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana – like Oklahoma City – was one of the league’s best teams at moving and taking care of the ball despite playing an up-tempo style. From January 1 onward, no team had a better assist-to-turnover ratio than the Pacers’ 2.44-to-1 mark, and only the Thunder had a lower turnover rate than Indiana’s 12.2%.
Although Haliburton leads the Pacers’ offensive attack, he’s not the scorer Gilgeous-Alexander is, having averaged a relatively modest 18.6 PPG during the regular season. It was actually star forward Pascal Siakam who led the team in scoring during the regular season (20.2 PPG) and has done so again in the playoffs (21.1 PPG).
But the club has a deep, balanced offense that also features contributions from Bennedict Mathurin (16.1 PPG during the regular season), Myles Turner (15.6 PPG), Aaron Nesmith (12.0 PPG), Obi Toppin (10.5 PPG), Andrew Nembhard (10.0 PPG), and T.J. McConnell (9.1 PPG).
While the game typically slows down in the playoffs, the Thunder and Pacers have continued to play fast well into the spring — only the Grizzlies, who faced Oklahoma City in the first round, rank ahead of Oklahoma City and Indiana in postseason pace.
Given those numbers, the Pacers will need to do all they can to keep the Thunder from dominating the boards. Indiana ranked 28th in the NBA in rebounding rate during the regular season, including 29th in offensive rebounding rate. With the two teams likely to be racing up and down the court and the Thunder’s ability to generate turnovers typically giving them the possession edge, getting consistently out-rebounded would compound that issue for the Pacers.
Whichever franchise wins the series won’t technically be getting its first title. The Pacers won three ABA championships in the 1970s and the Thunder claimed an NBA title back in 1979 as the Seattle SuperSonics, long before relocating to Oklahoma City. But fans in Indiana and Oklahoma City haven’t seen their respective teams win an NBA Finals.
With Game 1 set to tip off in less than 12 hours, we want to know what you think. Will the heavily favored Thunder make it a quick series? Will it go to six or seven games? Can the Pacers pull off the upset?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your predictions!
