The Indiana Pacers are two wins away from shocking the NBA world, as they lead the Oklahoma City 2-1 despite being set as massive underdogs at the start of the NBA Finals.
OKC dropped Game 3 on Wednesday night, struggling to put anything together in the fourth quarter, and now it has to win at least one game on the road and three of the next four matchups to win the series.
Oddsmakers still have the Thunder favored to win the title, but it’s hard to deny that the Pacers are much better than some initially thought. Before the season, Indiana was +6000 to win the title and it has been a massive underdog in this series (it opened at +500) despite winning Game 1 and Game 3.
The Pacers are underdogs at home once again in Game 4, but the Thunder have yet to cover the spread on the road in the playoffs, going 0-8. Does that trend continue on Friday night?
Let’s break down the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for this critical Game 4 matchup.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Thunder Injury Report
Pacers Injury Report
Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet
Holmgren had a great showing in Game 2, but he struggled in Game 1 and down the stretch in Game 3.
The Pacers seem to be content with letting Holmgren shoot from beyond the arc, and he’s just 1-for-10 from 3 in the series, including an 0-for-6 showing in Game 3.
The former No. 2 overall pick may look to attack the basket more in Game 4, especially since he’s shooting just 25.0 percent from 3 since the start of the second round. After clearing this line in three of his four games against Memphis in the first round, Holmgren has done so just four times in his last 15 playoff games.
He’s an easy fade candidate for me in Game 4.
Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet
Haliburton was a much more active part of the Pacers’ offense in Game 3, recording his best assist total of the series (11) and picking up nine rebounds in the process. He also scored 22 points – his most of the series – in a dominant performance.
In the playoffs, Haliburton is averaging 9.4 assists on 15.9 potential assists per game, and he’s putting up 6.3 rebounds on 8.9 rebound chances per game.
With the Thunder opting to play small, it has opened up some more rebounding opportunities for the entire Pacers roster, including Haliburton who had 10 boards in Game 1.
I think this line is a little low for the Indiana star, especially if he’s able to reach double-digit assists again in Game 4. Haliburton has six games (in his last nine) where he’s picked up 15 or more rebounds and assists.
At some point, what the Pacers are doing is more than just a magical run.
This team has played at a high level all postseason long, ranking No. 1 in effective field goal percentage, and the Pacers defense has really limited the Thunder in transition.
In Game 3, Indiana won the turnover battle, which is a huge recipe for beating this Thunder team. Plus, it took Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of his comfort zone late in the game by sending double teams at him and forcing other players on the Thunder to step up.
In both Game 1 and Game 3, OKC’s late-game execution – in the only two close games in this series – was not good.
The Thunder have struggled on the road all postseason long, going 0-8 against the spread. After watching them lose two of the first three games of this series, it’s really hard to trust the Thunder to win by multiple possessions on the road in Game 4.
After all, Indiana has the fourth-best ATS record of any team in the NBA this season as an underdog.
The Pacers – even if they don’t win Game 4 – will keep this matchup close.
Pick: Pacers +6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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